Solution for Brexit....coming from Germany

[watchingwithinterest]

Watching Mrs Merkel in Germany with some considerable interest, she is now under a great deal of pressure to start imposing migrant restrictions in Germany. Her own interior minister threatened to impose them immediately defying her authority but has allowed her the opportunity to find a solution at the EU summit.

Are we now seeing the start of freedom of movement coming to an end?

And if we are, what does that mean for brexit? If countries are able to implement their own immigration policies again given the huge surge in support for some controls surely this could actually mean that brexit may not need to happen.

I am posting as a leaver, I would like a considered orderly brexit. I would certainly reconsider staying in the EU if the immigration decisions were based here and if the EU became more democratic and transparent (I do believe this is all achievable)

If the EU wishes to ignore the tsunami of growing opinion right across Europe that some controls are needed, then the project truly deserves to be dead in the water, if it can show it is open and flexible to change it may save itself just in time....

What are your thoughts? Civil posts only please.

Yes but there are far too many of them. We can’t aupport it.

I'm interested in where this perception comes from. It is true that the UK has a relatively high number of immigrants overall. UN data shows that in 2017, the UK was home to 5th highest number of migrants in the world (the commonly accepted international definition of migrant is someone who is living away from their country of birth for at least one year, so also includes people who may have been living here for 80 years).

However, if you measure immigration per capita, the UK is way outside the top 10, with 13.2% of the population having migrated from another country, which is completely in line with the global average. Interesting analysis was done on this by the Telegraph in 2016. The highest proportion of immigrants are to be found in the Gulf states, where it's over 80% of the population. Of course, they treat them like shit.

We come in the middle of the table in terms of levels of immigration per head out of the G8 countries.

We are also in the middle of European countries: Eurostat measures from 2016 - measured per 1000 population.

So as a proportion of the population, there are far more immigrants in Ireland, Spain and Canada.

It's worth noting that our migration figures include international students (immigrants that people are happy to receive?) and the UK is notoriously useless about measuring this, reportedly massively over-reporting the number who stayed after their studies had finished.

People may well be influenced by their personal perceptions, without being aware of the overall statistics. It is extremely common for people to widely over-estimate the proportion of immigrants living in their country.

Surge...tsunami...such emotive language when you could have just said you voted Leave because you hate immigrants.

You're living in la la land. Immigration is lucrative for governments, lawyers etc. It's also convenient for being a cover whilst the government shaft the population even more, and people who haven't copped onto themselves sit blaming immigrants.

Aren't the government recruiting overseas nurses -& again-- ?

& Brexit will have zero impact on illegal immigration

"Too many of them". Unnecessary emotive language.

We can and should talk about this. Please moderate your language when you are talking about people.

Why? Why can’t I be emotive about unlimited migration, the fact it has hugely changed the U.K. and as a result meant we are leaving the U.K.?

I’m hugely emotional about it.

Ill thought out government policy and look where we get to

Leaving the EU I mean. Sincerely hope Scotland won’t leave the U.K. as a result but that might happen too.

As my polish pal says, it would never have happened in Poland!

No. Germany has allowed lots of asylum seekers from outside EU. Nothing to do with freedom of movement.

The UK could have restricted immigration from within EU more than it did by delaying opening borders to new entrants like Poland in the 90s, as other countries did. There is also more we could have done within EU rules to reduce the toll on welfare, migrants can be returned after 3 months if unable to support themselves.

Politicians chose not to restrict in this way as it gave the economy a boost. They lied in the referendum about these things being the fault of EU when it was the choice of both major parties.

Brexit will either see us retain EU freedom of movement (with a deal) or seek trade deals that will include allowing lots of non-EU migrants from places like India and China.

Either way those who voted to leave based on immigration have a nasty shock coming.

You want emotion @Calledyoulastnightfromglasgow - my mum was an invited worker post war worker doing a job British women wouldn't do. My dad was born here but his parents were refugees born elsewhere. My dad served in the forces in the war. All their kids and grandkids are university educated. My parents worked till retirement age. All tax payers.
People put up signs wanting them to go home when they were younger.

"Why can’t I be emotive about unlimited migration,"

Migration has never been unlimited, using that terminology is emotive hyperbole and inaccurate.

"As my polish pal says, it would never have happened in Poland!"

Except for the million or so Ukranians that have gone to Poland in the last decade?

The four freedoms are cornerstones of EU law, so I don't think we will see them getting rid of freedom of movement within the EU completely.

However, I think the countries within the EU are likely to tighten up what they can within the bounds of the rules.

As pps have said, whilst free movement within Europe is allowed, we can introduce monitoring and control, so that EU migrants are recorded and if they do not have employment/are unemployed for more than 3 months they have to leave. The only issue with that is it involves the home office maintaining proper records and controls.

It is also possible to alter rules around housing/benefits. The only rule is that you cannot discriminate against EU workers (they have to be treated the same as that country's workers), but if you altered it that everyone is only entitled to benefits if they have lived and/or worked in the UK for at least 5 years and have it apply across the board that could resolve part of the issue from that side as everyone is still treated the same.

It wasn't immigration that prompted me to vote leave.

People are conflating the four freedoms with migration from outside of the EU here.

It isn't EU immigration that is putting the pressure on Merkel, and even then this is exaggerated, and mostly by Trump using inaccurate information.

The percentage of EU immigrants who work is I believe higher than the percentage of British people who do and most certainly higher than non EU migrants .
I’m against free movement in general, it should be based on being self supporting. We have enough wasters of our own here without importing any. If you want to move to any country you should be able to support and house yourself, if you can’t you have no business being there ( refugees excepted obviously). Once we leave The EU we will probably have to agree to more free movement from non EU countries in return for new trade deals so people like my idiot racist FIL who voted leave “to stop the Muslims” have kind of show themselves sin the fort. Well actually they’ve shot me and my DC since he will probably be dead before the real problems start ( as I enjoy pointing out to him)
My DH is from an EU nation and we will probably move to another, different EU nation in about 15 years but ONLY if we can afford to - we wouldn’t dream of turning up if we didn’t have enough money to live on or the ability to earn it.

Shot themselves in the foot I mean

"We have enough wasters of our own here without importing any."

Less than 1% of EU immigrants are unemployed.

EU immigrants used to be able to claim housing benefit but this was scrapped prior to 2016.

The data shows that EU immigrants are under represented in the total number of those claiming working tax credits too.

The reality is that the UK contributes about €8.6bn a year (net) out of a total EU budget of about €145bn - so somewhere in the order of 6%.

Havanana.. Sorry but I know as a fact that the various grants programmes within the EU have been asked to prepare for 25% cuts.

Its to do with fixed and variable costs within the EU. Us leaving wont see much of a change in the government side of things. That wont suddenly cost less because there is one less member. So the savings needed to make up for the shortfall will come from cutting back the EU's grant programme because that is a variable cost that can be cut.

The Immigration arguments are all about money as well. Lots of misinformation about how many are employed, how many on benefits etc. But even if someone - native or immigrant its all the same - is employed it does not mean that they are a net contributor to the country. the amount they pay in tax may not cover the amount they "cost" in benefits - and I use this term in the broadest sense of benefit like using the NHS, schools etc.

When some of the poorer countries in the EU who are net receivers of the highest grants see a 25% reduction and the powerful groups like French farmers also start to see this, this is when you will see real issues within the EU.

all of the savings from the loss of the UK money will fall on the grants system because the EU is too arrogant to cut its fixed costs by reducing the cost of its parliament or not switching it every 6 months to a different location (honestly even if you are massively pro EU how absolutely bonkers is that in terms of money wasting)

There is no solution to immigration. how can you tell someone living in poverty with nil life chances just not to consider leaving and going somewhere where at least they have opportunities. Its been an issue since time began and its not going to be solved or go away because a politician wants it to.

"Havanana.. Sorry but I know as a fact that the various grants programmes within the EU have been asked to prepare for 25% cuts. "

Anecdote, probably made up this round of spending goes till 2020 and the next round has not in anyway been agreed. There were already prior to the UK leaving many discussions about lower levels of funding.

The Dustman and Fratini study shows that as a group EU migrants are net contributors, some individuals may not be, this included benefits in kind like education.

Leavers, stop with the inferiority complex. You are either right or wrong about this call.
I know a few sensible, level headed optimistic Leave voters. I know a few more Leave voters who did so for ridiculous, petulant and ignorant reasons.
I voted Remain. If I was wrong, I will be the first to say so. I'm not a traitor. I'm not trying to stop this happening. I still disagree with it.
Stop whinging about Remain voters and get on with making this work. Just don't expect me to change my mind until there is something to show for it.

The problem we have is two fold – a social benefit system that allows native brits to be choosy about what jobs they do and freedom of movement.

My local town has a relatively high unemployment rate amongst 20-30 years olds. We also have a large proportion of shop, farm, manual labour done by eastern Europeans.

Why are we paying benefits to unemployed british workers and importing unskilled manual labour?

I refuse to believe that the jobs are beyond the skill set of the british unemployed. The problem is, we allow people to be relatively choosy about what job they take. Yes people have to jump through hoops and risk sanctions but its relatively very easy to avoid getting a job if you don’t like the look of the hours or conditions. When we tried to make it less palatable by introducing daily signing or work fare, the left were ringing their hands in horror. It should be that after six month unemployed you have to do 7 hours community service for your benefits or something similar.

I don’t blame the businesses for employing migrant labour because they are allowed to. It is clearly possible for people to live on the money these jobs pay because 100s/1000s eastern Europeans are doing so!

We should not be importing unskilled labour whilst we have unemployment amongst people born here – and it needs to be two pronged in that we stop the supply of migrant labout but also make it harder for people not to be gainfully employed.

Childrenofthesun Belgium is not a good example, given the forged ID card issue here, and the fact that in certain districts, like Molenbeek, the police won't go and do the mandatory checks, so the authorities don't know who is there. Given Schengen as well, and the completely open border, how the hell would the Belgians know who is here? The only time I've had my passport checked in Belgium is at the airport or Eurostar. I frequently drive out of Belgium.....and have done for 13 years; even on the day of the Zaventem bombings, when I drove into France en route to Dunkirk 2 hours post bombings, there were no police anywhere that I saw between the Brussels Ring and the French border on the E40. I was pulled over at Dover, but no border check exiting Belgium.

@woolythoughts - you are saying things which people do not want to hear. We are not allowed to talk about feckless work refusers because there are apparently only a tiny minority of them. And yet the same voices complain about EU migrants coming over here and taking low skilled jobs and driving down wages and clogging up schools and the nhs and houses etc. It can't be both.
It looks like we have to start getting nastier to "our own" and I am not sure how many people have signed up to that.

If the low paid/lowskill jobs weren't there, they wouldn't come. Why aren't British people doing those jobs?

Benefits are already lower than they are in much of Western Europe and we have nationally extremely low unemployment.

Where is this area that has high youth unemployment and high levels of migrations.

In some areas unemployment is low thus the need for migrant labour. Migrants are now going elsewhere and fruit is rotting in the fields. Unemployment is low nationwide. Low pay existed pre EU.

Anecdote, probably made up this round of spending goes till 2020
Topcat1980

No. without outing myself I am involved with a number of programmes and also talk extensively to people running other programmes in the EU. Look in detail at what the programmes say about spend and commitment. All commitments must be made by March 2019 with claims made by 2020.

there is already a lot of talk and planning for post 2020 programmes. I know this because I am involved. and this is why countries are being told to plan for levels at 25% less than current.

I don't mind being told I have made something up when I am unsure but this is one of my areas of expertise so please don't tell me its an anecdote when its a fact.

Of course there is lots of planning for post 2020 programmes, but there was already significant talk about budgets changing prior to brexit ( changes to CAP etc).

Suggesting that there will be a 25% change in funding because about 7% of the budget has gone is a bit far.

You might be involved, but then you would also know that the discussion is also that the rebates will stop post 2020.

Overall there are a lot of factors influencing budget changes, and brexit and the net contribution of the UK being lost are not the most important determinant.