To think that big house price falls finally on the way?

[qwertyflirty]

After years or price rises, in my area (edge of London), I'm finally seeing price falls of around 15% from peak.

Lots of evidence in recent months of house price falls starting and picking up in London/South East, and usually once they start here, price falls spread elsewhere.

House prices are down on average 17K since July 2017 in London. "The average price of a home for the capital as a whole was £471,986, down from a peak of £488,247 last July."

There is little the government can do to mitigate it this time round, as interest rates are already at record lows. All signs are currently pointing to the top of the market having been reached and prices about to crash.

Such as:

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/18/london-house-prices-fall-average-uk

www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-5733321/Beware-red-danger-signs-house-prices-Young-buyers-borrow-record-sums.html

www.theguardian.com/money/2018/may/12/house-prices-are-on-the-slide-where-will-they-go-now

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/house-prices-fall-housing-market-rics-survey-april-a8343561.html

www.propertyweek.com/finance/house-price-falls-continue-in-london-and-spread-to-south-west/5096455.article

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/10/celebrate-house-prices-falling-britain-property-values

Hear hear, alan.

People don't have to be on the streets to be homeless.

It includes those in temporary accomodation that is too small and impractical for their needs, eg entire families in bedsits with no proper cooking facilities, room for washing machines and clothes storage etc.

Still growing here - East Mids - house similar to mine which was bought in August 2015 recently on the market for £100000 more! And they sell really quickly - its very unusual for a board to actually go up round here but if it does it has Sold on it within a couple of weeks.

AlanRickmansRightFoot

As a homeowner myself negative equity is likely to affect very few. Most of the population who are on the ladder have been so for years & are older with lots of equity.

The government knows that there are more votes to be gained from those priced out than votes lost from those who stand to lose out from house price falls
This ↗️

*You do know that people on the council waiting list are not homeless, don't you?

Can you imagine Lambeth with 23,000 on the streets?!!!*

Slow hand clap for you OP. Talk about a bubble, you're living in one.

I'm sure the families on the council waiting list for years with multiple people sharing one room and shared facilities are really grateful for the fact that they are "not technically homeless"

I have to say I think it unlikely there will be a massive house crash in the more affordable areas of London.

The more expensive areas might see prices drop.

AlanRickmansRightFoot

I don't think there is 'glee' 'about people losing money on houses' - there is a relief that people who have been unable to buy and had to live in shitty, overpriced and insecure rental accommodation for years might possibly be able to afford a starter shoebox somewhere on the very outskirts of London.

Those people have also worked hard and have been shafted for years.

yes but they will be able to buy because other people, who were in shitty overpriced rentals for years and who saved to buy, will lose their homes.

the "oh it'll be great if house prices drop and I can buy" forget or ignore that they need other peoples misery in order to do well.

I did say to DH last night that I’m anxious of being priced out of other cities after reading this

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/05/london-losing-its-people-and-its-soul-it-time-move-elsewhere

There are plenty of non-rich people in London for whom this would be an unqualified disaster, so it's not very nice to wish that really, is it.

Why is that, though? If they are living in their house then the theoretical price shouldnt really affect them. If they are wanting to sell, presumably thats to buy somewhere else and the price of THAT property would also fall.

there is a relief that people who have been unable to buy and had to live in shitty, overpriced and insecure rental accommodation for years might possibly be able to afford a starter shoebox somewhere on the very outskirts of London.

It doesn't work like that though.

House prices are just one economic indicator.

Right now, if they are falling it's because of uncertainty in the rest of the economy and fewer opportunities in the area leading to lower demand for house.

Those factors mean, even though prices of houses falls, those who can't afford them currently are going to be more cautious about buying and potentially won't have a job to enable them to do so.

I've never neerstood people who think house prices falling is a good thing- it's a sign the whole economy is tanking.

MiggeldyHiggins - unfortunately, there is no solution that keeps everyone happy.

Those who bought will in the main be fine - because most bought long ago and recent price rises will more than cover any future price falls.

For the few who bought more recently, the vast majority should still be fine, as tighter lending requirements including the need for large deposits should mean that few end up in negative equity.

House prices need to come down. Yes, that may mean negative equity for some - but is that really any worse than what we have now, which is swathes of people completely priced out, even with decent jobs? You have to be a bit one-eyed to see only the pain of homeowners with more debt than value and not the pain of Generation Rent. I honestly think it's far worse being priced out than it is having a house that you bought at an inflated price.

And yes, I have been in negative equity. We bought our house literally a few weeks before the financial crash of 2008. It immediately lost tens of thousands in value, and (because we are in the north), it flatlined at that point for years. It didn't affect us so much because we had a house, and we weren't seeing it as an investment but as a place to live for some time. Values have now risen, and our neighbourhood has gentrified a lot, so that the house is now worth more than we borrowed. But even had that not happened, we would have still been in a better position than someone who was priced out.

I think London is a very big place! There is some evidence of prices reducing but not if the property is well located, in good condition, desirable and near transport links. Houses are reducing more than flats in some areas. The lower end of the market is still bouyant if the property is in the right place, in good condition and well priced.

Additionally, in London, there are enough wealthy people to give money to their offspring for a deposit. A very healthy deposit. Lots of young people see their future careers in London. They cannot get the same career elsewhere, or the same lifestyle and social life. All their friends might be in London so it's a big decision to move out. Many want some free time and not a massive commute, so pay for that privilege.

Nurses and teachers can easily buy in cheaper areas of the country. Two teachers, 7 years into their careers earning around £30,000 each, can buy in many areas of the country without too much hassle. Obviously the deposit is the problem, but many parents do step in to help. Anyone in the public sector who is on a career grade is perfectly Ok too nearly anywhere other than the home counties and London.

Another shortage of housing is caused by divorced people maintaining two family houses so each can have the children. Plenty of peope do this but it causes shortages.

All signs are currently pointing to the top of the market having been reached and prices about to crash

Nope. All the signs are Brexit uncertainty impacting the house market.

If we end up staying in the sm and cu, or fully aligned with it as per the NI agreement, the economy will recover.

If we end up with a hard Brexit, which is looking increasingly unlikely, that would certainly nuke the housing market but it would also nuke the entire economy so there would be no relative gains.

I've never neerstood people who think house prices falling is a good thing- it's a sign the whole economy is tanking.

^This

I don't remember anyone other than cash-rich BLT landlords who were able to pick up bargains, enjoying the last house price crash.

Resi buyers lost confidence in the market, supply was restricted and lending was harder to get.

The whole low interest rate environment is fucked up though - IMO we should have had a sharper, shorter economic shock last time and we would have recovered better. As it was we just kept kicking the impact down the path and never really took the pain, and never really recovered.

*The vast majority will be people living in massively overpriced private rental accommodation whilst also on the council lists. There is nothing they would like more than to see house prices fall so DON'T YOU DARE claim to speak for them you bloody hypocrite.

You couldn't care less about homeless people, you just want your house price to remain out of reach for others.*

You've made so many assumptions. I can speak for them because until recently I WAS one of them.

I have not interest in my house price remaining out of reach of others. I WOULD like to avoid being in negative equity, not being able to remortgage when required, and not ending up back in overpriced rental accommodation.

I've lost count of the number of times I've seen these predictions over the last 30 years. They haven't come true in the South even during recessions.

I hope they do fall. Pisses me off that my children would never be able to afford a property because they are priced out of reach. I don't care if the price of my home falls. I'm living in it anyway so it makes no odds.

The top end of the London market has dropped - and I dont feel much sympathy for anyone who can spend millions. The less over priced (was going to say more affordable but they are not affordable for most) areas in London have seen a reduction in the price of ex council property and flats over commercial property because of changes to the taxation of landlords. Falls in other types of property have been fairly small so far but the market is stagnant so anyone forced to sell may have to take a cut.

If the snowflake generation were more politically active there would be more of a clampdown on overseas purchases, more emphasis on preventing "dirty money" purchases, higher property taxes, an expansion of social house building. Our ruling class have too much invested in housing themselves to allow much of a collapse.

GnotherGnu I think the difference is we are facing economic uncertainty & it really should of happened after the last recession but was prevented from correcting itself. What wiggle room do we have now?

Why is that, though? If they are living in their house then the theoretical price shouldnt really affect them. If they are wanting to sell, presumably thats to buy somewhere else and the price of THAT property would also fall.

Well to give myself as an example, my DP and I bought our two bedroom, no garden, small flat in SE London two years ago for 345k, with a 10% deposit which was as much as we could afford.

We can only really fit in one child here so if we would like to have another child we will need to move out of London. If we were to get into negative equity which with only a 10% deposit is quite likely, we will be stuck here for the foreseeable future and unable to have another baby or give our son a garden.

We chose to buy in London initially because I had very severe PND and really needed to stay near my family.