To think that big house price falls finally on the way?

[qwertyflirty]

After years or price rises, in my area (edge of London), I'm finally seeing price falls of around 15% from peak.

Lots of evidence in recent months of house price falls starting and picking up in London/South East, and usually once they start here, price falls spread elsewhere.

House prices are down on average 17K since July 2017 in London. "The average price of a home for the capital as a whole was £471,986, down from a peak of £488,247 last July."

There is little the government can do to mitigate it this time round, as interest rates are already at record lows. All signs are currently pointing to the top of the market having been reached and prices about to crash.

Such as:

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/18/london-house-prices-fall-average-uk

www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-5733321/Beware-red-danger-signs-house-prices-Young-buyers-borrow-record-sums.html

www.theguardian.com/money/2018/may/12/house-prices-are-on-the-slide-where-will-they-go-now

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/house-prices-fall-housing-market-rics-survey-april-a8343561.html

www.propertyweek.com/finance/house-price-falls-continue-in-london-and-spread-to-south-west/5096455.article

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/10/celebrate-house-prices-falling-britain-property-values

you get one surveyor / property expert who you are happy to listen to but dismiss the others? I'm also an MRICS if that's all you were looking for.

Rather typical from the OP in AIBU... only want a tonliaten to those who agree with her!

The luxury flat issue I’ve been seeing for a while qwertyflirty I remember opening The Evening Standard in around 2015/2016 and seeing the exact same thing; no one wants to buy the brand new luxury 2 bed flats for over £1m. They want to spend that money on a house instead. The people who want to buy those kinds of properties (and can afford to!) are quite a small group of people.

ziggiestardust

Yep I mentioned if you go to Vauxhall it’s staggering the towers of new builds.

qwerty
Property developers are not going to sink money into big new projects if they think prices are going to fall substantially.

Sprinklesinmyelbow
with high hopes for other parts of the SE where property is still more affordable and the oxford Cambridge corridor and cross rail affected towns.

Who will be driving this growth? local markets or people relocating/commuting from London. FTBs or BTLs?

you're changing your chat to fit your story.
You were talking about old properties getting kitchens and bathrooms done and then selling for profit.. you said people would rather pay less and buy a shit hole rather than a premium.
I'm telling you thats wrong , proven by the fact people pay more for properties that have had that work done because they don't want to do it themselves. There is plenty of money in doing so (still). I am literally doing it with properties now and seeing the results both in my private life and from the house refurbs we do as well as the new builds through my work.

boomboom yes! It’s all you see on the train ride in! All around New Covent Garden Market too!

My office mate has just bought a new build a little way north of Stevenage. We have offices in north and south London so most people pick an office near to their ‘half’ of London! He bought it for around £400k for a 4 bed I believe, which is obviously a damn sight more reasonable than anywhere further in. Another office mate is trying buy in Bletchley. I was a bit surprised, since the commute must be exhausting; easily 1.5 hours on the way home at least, but the prices are just so much more accessible as to make it worth it.

ChazsBrilliantAttitude

"Property developers are not going to sink money into big new projects if they think prices are going to fall substantially."

It might be a bit late for that.

From the same article I quoted above:

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/26/ghost-towers-half-of-new-build-luxury-london-flats-fail-to-sell

"Dixon says he expected developers to “go slow” or halt the later stages of developments until they have managed to sell more of the stock they’ve already built. But he adds that slowing production of flats was a lot harder than building traditional houses. “If you’re building an estate of 100 houses in the countryside, you can stop building when they’re not selling,” he says. “But if you’re building a big tower you can’t have anyone living in them until the whole tower is completed.”

He adds that that if a homeowner can’t sell their home at the price they’re aiming for they can withdraw it from the market but “for developer’s that’s not a solution – developers in some ways are forced sellers”."

again I’d have to agree with you there actually! DH and I work FT and have a young child. We paid £50k more to buy a house that was basically ‘done’ (even though it’s not 100% to our taste, but with cheap and easy tweaks we will get there) rather than pay less and move into a shithole. Not going to happen. Where you need 2 wages for a mortgage, people will choose convenience and be happy to pay for it.

You also cant look at super prime resi not selling to overseas buyers and say its going to be the same for everything else.
That's like the super rich not buying Bentleys and so suggesting all the average mid price cars are going to go bust.

Around here they've just begun the development of 2000 new houses. Can't get them up fast enough!

I'm telling you thats wrong , proven by the fact people pay more for properties that have had that work done because they don't want to do it themselves

You are correct but there’s a ceiling ime. Eg if a house has a loft conversion that cost 35-40k it probably adds 50k of value (stress & disruption) it doesn’t add 100k.

Againfaster - you've already admitted you'll be out of a job if property prices fall.

So who am I going to believe, "Marcus Dixon, head of research at property data service", "Steven Herd, founder and chief executive of MyLondonHome, an agency that specialises in new-build homes for investment", "Henry Pryor, a property buying agent", "property data experts Molior London", or...er...you, an anonymous poster on MN??! Who claims to have made in property in recent months.

See: www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/26/ghost-towers-half-of-new-build-luxury-london-flats-fail-to-sell

I'll let you guess who I find more convincing.

ILikeMyChickenFried - that's the point the article was making.

There's a huge oversupply of over-priced flats.

I didn't say anything about flats

Qwerty...are you really calling people liars ?

QWERTY only wants an echo chamber AF

ziggiestardust

This is the house I was talking about.

www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63823711.html

Do you think it's a 'shithole'?

And this was the flat. Ditto.

www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-52128804.html

The first one looks fine, just cluttered, and the kitchen needs an update. The second one also looks fine. If you have a spare 50K to pay for a nicer kitchen, go you, but I don't think most buyers do.

The term 'shithole' was introduced by a pp but I don't think was justified. There certainly are properties that need new everythings - neither of these fall into that category. I can see no reason why the first house is 95K cheaper than another 2-bed in the same street that sold 6 months earlier.

why post on Mn if you're not interested in believing people who post on it?
my knowledge is not just my own but also informed by the experts, property/legal/financial analysts that i employ to make sure we are on the right track. JLL, Savilles etc the big names that inform your articles that you post are talking to me on a day to day basis and its not matching what you are saying. I give up, dont let the facts ruin a good argument ey.

What do you want, OP? A nice little frisson to think of people who've bought in London over the last few years losing out? To see thousands struggling with negative equity? How exciting for you.

Did you object to all the applications for planning permission for the towers that you're now frotting yourself over in guardian articles? Did you bother going to a single planning consultation meeting? Did you make your views known to councillors and developers?

If not, why do you care so much??!

AnyFucker

RTWT - only where they've lied. Then, yes.

Do you have the details.for the more expensive property?

WeWere0nABreak - I couldn't care less about these particular towers. I do care about the fact that millions of ordinary people cannot afford a suitable home for their needs (rental or bought) in London and the SE, and to a lesser degree elsewhere in the country.

Don't you?

Or are you alright, Jack?

Plus "you can see no reason" re the difference in house sale prices - well, no. How would you be able to, when your entire opinion is based on right move listings?

You're making assumptions. You don't know anything about the sellers' circumstances, or what structural state the houses were in, or any of those other factors. You are entitled to your assumptions, but that is all they are.