To think that big house price falls finally on the way?

[qwertyflirty]

After years or price rises, in my area (edge of London), I'm finally seeing price falls of around 15% from peak.

Lots of evidence in recent months of house price falls starting and picking up in London/South East, and usually once they start here, price falls spread elsewhere.

House prices are down on average 17K since July 2017 in London. "The average price of a home for the capital as a whole was £471,986, down from a peak of £488,247 last July."

There is little the government can do to mitigate it this time round, as interest rates are already at record lows. All signs are currently pointing to the top of the market having been reached and prices about to crash.

Such as:

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/18/london-house-prices-fall-average-uk

www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-5733321/Beware-red-danger-signs-house-prices-Young-buyers-borrow-record-sums.html

www.theguardian.com/money/2018/may/12/house-prices-are-on-the-slide-where-will-they-go-now

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/house-prices-fall-housing-market-rics-survey-april-a8343561.html

www.propertyweek.com/finance/house-price-falls-continue-in-london-and-spread-to-south-west/5096455.article

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/10/celebrate-house-prices-falling-britain-property-values

I don’t understand why you think ie house builders have a vested interest in pretending house prices will rise when they won’t.

Oh come come don’t be so naive!

House builders need to predict public ally rises so that people will buy today’s competed houses at near enough the prices advertised.

If housebukders publit predict falls then confidence is trashed and people don’t buy today at £450k when they think they can have the exact same thing in 12 months for £400k.

But even that is not enough, as they then can't borrow enough because house prices are too high. No way you could hope to buy in Chelsea, where house prices cost 40 times local earnings. But even in the wider south east, you're looking at 10.3 times earnings. No bank will lend you anything near that.

And yet people like me ARE still managing to buy.

It appears I can’t type at all on my phone. But I think you get the just!

And by people like me I just mean younger people who are not from wealthy backgrounds.

UnimaginativeUsername

OP you just sound like you desperately want to convince everyone for some reason.

That is clearly an ad hominem.

If they have an argument to make, make it.

That is not an argument about house process. That is an attack on me.

Xenia I confess your expertise made me giggle too but I agree with you that buy now if possible but future proof even if that means buying elsewhere & renting it out (this may be bad advice).

freezerfoodyum

Not many of them! That's why prices are falling.

And most with help from parents withdrawing equity ie a Ponzi scheme.

That is not sustainable.

My friend has reduced by 25k in 3 weeks, no viewings.

my advice is if you want to buy and can it is best to get on with it as there is never an ideal time

"my advice is if you want to buy and can it is best to get on with it as there is never an ideal time"

The reality is that most of those who can afford to buy have done.

The message is that if you can't afford it yet, you may soon be able to.

reduced what though. reduced on her too high expectations as it hasn't risen as much as previously, or reduced 25k below what she paid for it?

I see lots of flats like mine that are priced a good 50k above what I would price it at, I do think a lot of the issues is people's expectations are totally unrealistic.

freezerfoodyum

"If my friend inherited 500k tomorrow and could buy a house outright without saving I wouldn't give a shiny shit - good for her. I'm not the one with a chip on my shoulder about that on this thread, you are."

How rude!

Nothing I have posted her suggests I object to those who own their own homes. On the contrary.

For some reason, you object strenuously to evidence suggesting that house prices are falling - including in your neck of the woods.

Well get over it.

No use shooting the messenger. Not going to make your crappy flat worth 70K more!

OP if you believe that people are making an attack on you, then report them.
But the only poster on this thread who has had posts deleted for attacks so far is you.

Boomboom12 where was this please? I think it would give us a great deal more information/truth if we all imparted truthfully what is actually going on in paces. I wish ppl could be honest and tell us and give links to where this happening.

I bought in Chelsea 12 years ago.

Sold it at the end of last year, in 2 weeks, to a cash buyer, for £10k less than the asking price. Not isolated as the neighbour on the floor below sold hers the month before. Without going into detail, those were 7 figure sales. We also had several viewings lined up that we had to cancel.

I think there's a slowdown. But clearly there are still plenty of buyers who can buy. I think we will see a slow reduction; I don't think there will be the huge crash that the OP seems to want.

Plus it's very easy to write off other people's paper gains as "nothing". I call bullshit on the OP if she really expects us to believe that if she (or say her elderly parents) had a £1m flat that was suddenly only worth £500k that she'd consider it "nothing"!

For some reason, you object strenuously to evidence suggesting that house prices are falling - including in your neck of the woods.

Er no I haven't, I have said several times I agree there will be a fall. I just don't think there will be a crash.

No use shooting the messenger. Not going to make your crappy flat worth 70K more!

I find that really upsetting to be honest. I have worked so hard to buy my little flat and it's not crappy. It's my home. It's where I raise my little boy.

Your posts are really nasty and completely unjustifiably so.

And yes, I am quite cross at how rude you are.

It's hardly my fault you chose to buy a flat when/where you did.

Furano house builders won’t publish their market predictions publically. They will use them internally for their business plans.

I agree if they’re issuing a press release probably take it with a pinch of salt. It’s only marketing.

Other people also work really hard but you repeatedly put them down, as though your buying a flat was some sort of moral virtue rather than a financial decision you chose to make.

Againfaster reduced by 25k from what the estate agent told him to price it at. Now he’s been told to price it at X & accept 20k below asking price as buyers are looking for a reduction. He will be fine as lots of equity but it may affect what he buys next. However anyone whos bought similar in the last 3 years are unlikely to see much profit once costs are taken into account.

It's hardly my fault you chose to buy a flat when/where you did.

You seem to think I'm in some sort of denial/crisis. I'm not. I've already said if we have to stay in our flat, we have to stay in our flat. It's hardly the end of the world. You are literally picking a fight out of thin air.

My most recent evidence - this month ive sold 2 newbuild flats 15k and 17k above asking price in zone 2 london. I have reservations on 6 others between asking and 17k more. There are 22 viewings booked for the remaining 10 this weekend.

Other people also work really hard but you repeatedly put them down, as though your buying a flat was some sort of moral virtue rather than a financial decision you chose to make.

I absolutely did not, I explained that perfectly well a few posts up. If you choose to misinterpret me, that's your own lookout.

You are just not happy with anyone on this thread differing from your own point of view. The fact of the matter is I don't KNOW there won't be a crash. And you don't know that there will be one.

WeWere0nABreak

I think if your flat doubles in value in a few years on the basis of no major change on economic fundamentals, you have to work on the assumption that it could easily lose those unearned gains.

That's all I'm saying.

@Sprinklesinmyelbow listed housebuilders comment on price and volume forecasts as part of typical investor relations and analyst reports.

Which is essentially public.