To think that big house price falls finally on the way?

[qwertyflirty]

After years or price rises, in my area (edge of London), I'm finally seeing price falls of around 15% from peak.

Lots of evidence in recent months of house price falls starting and picking up in London/South East, and usually once they start here, price falls spread elsewhere.

House prices are down on average 17K since July 2017 in London. "The average price of a home for the capital as a whole was £471,986, down from a peak of £488,247 last July."

There is little the government can do to mitigate it this time round, as interest rates are already at record lows. All signs are currently pointing to the top of the market having been reached and prices about to crash.

Such as:

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/18/london-house-prices-fall-average-uk

www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-5733321/Beware-red-danger-signs-house-prices-Young-buyers-borrow-record-sums.html

www.theguardian.com/money/2018/may/12/house-prices-are-on-the-slide-where-will-they-go-now

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/house-prices-fall-housing-market-rics-survey-april-a8343561.html

www.propertyweek.com/finance/house-price-falls-continue-in-london-and-spread-to-south-west/5096455.article

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/10/celebrate-house-prices-falling-britain-property-values

help to buy is only used on a couple of properties per scheme. most of them are bought "normally"

OP I have thought the same as you - that they have to fall - for nearly 20 years now. so I'm doubting it will happen.

btw I haven't ever discussed it in such an aggressive way....i get that there's a lot to be angry about but don't take it out on posters.

also wasn't it Labour who really got in gear to set London up as a city for the super rich and buy to leavers? There's been very little difference between the two parties before Corbyn.

Qwerty. Market sentiment impacts on prices as much as'real' considerations is all I am saying. If you own shares you will know this.

Twittlebee I agree. But the home owners on here convinced that people on a joint £70k income can afford a £400k house (without a mega inheritance) need a short, sharp wake up call to reality.

Not only have the FTB not benefited from raised in house prices in the form of equity they may have done, but there are also stagnated wages, low interest rates on savings, job insecurity, high living costs and yes, student loans (!) that may well mean they don't have hundreds of thousands to throw at boomers who are convinced their houses are 'worth' £xxxK.

As long as there is no recession, people will simply sit tight and refuse to sell until prices go back up.

They’re welcome to sit tight. They don’t set the prices. Those who sell, do.

Or as Mandy Rice-Davies astutely said, 'Well, he would say that, wouldn't he?'

What a surprise, someone who works for a housebuilder thinks house prices are going to rise. Well I never. Knock me down with a feather.

Re student loans maybe it depends what “plan” you fall into?

also wasn't it Labour who really got in gear to set London up as a city for the super rich and buy to leavers? There's been very little difference between the two parties before Corbyn.

Also frankly every single family I know in my area who owns a big old 750k period terrace house votes Labour. Labour is not a party for poor people.

Nor are the conservatives, obviously. I really have no idea who the fuck I'd vote for if there were a general election tomorrow.

RE: help to buy, I don't pretend to understand it, but the few people I know who've used it say it's a huge PITA.

Resale prices for new builds are crap here. The prices for them new are astronomical but they’re hard to sell and sell for much less than that.

That’s also another reason why some areas are continuing to do well. The number of new builds is increasing round here, but people would much rather live in the Victorian to 1930s properties near the desirable schools (including many of those seeking to sell their new builds). So there’s a bigger pool of people all looking to buy in a limited area.

Bolokov

"Qwerty. Market sentiment impacts on prices as much as'real' considerations is all I am saying. If you own shares you will know this."

Indeed. I think we agree on this.

But that sentiment did not start with this thread! It merely describes existing sentiment. I think you over-estimate the number of people who read a particular thread on MN!

i sell them on a daily basis and have to get whole schemes valued by independsnt surveyors every 2 months to make sure they're still worth building .. if there was a genuine fear they would drop obviously we would all be out of jobs, so we have to be pretty sure we are right

But the home owners on here convinced that people on a joint £70k income can afford a £400k house (without a mega inheritance) need a short, sharp wake up call to reality.

I only say that because I know people who have done that! Yes, without an inheritance!

It really pisses me off that people assume because DP and I own our flat that we a) got help from Mum and Dad or b) got a massive inheritance.

Neither is true. I grew up on a fecking council estate with a mother who worked every hour of the day and night for fuck all pay. We had absolutely nothing growing up and she still has two of my siblings who are school age living at home. I've never taken a penny from her since I turned 18.

But perhaps demand & confidence will cause interest rates to rise “snewname”. I would actually feel more confident if they would raise them by even just a teeny bit, it shows confidence & gives more of a buffer to slashing them if needs be.

Re student loans maybe it depends what “plan” you fall into?

Yes maybe, actually.

As long as there is no recession, people will simply sit tight and refuse to sell until prices go back up.

...and meanwhile, the value of their houses will go down.

They don't need to do anything. It will happen whether they put market their house on the or not.

on the market or not.

freezerfoodyum - provided your mortgage is portable, you won't be affected by falling prices. As the price of what you want to buy will fall too.

So chill...

You forget how many people in the market currently are speculators.
Maybe in London. Not across the entire country. Certainly not where I live - most are owner occupiers.

Againfaster

I posted the link above.

The stock market has already priced in drops in all the major housebuilders.

*provided your mortgage is portable, you won't be affected by falling prices. As the price of what you want to buy will fall too.

So chill...*

I'm chilled, I don't think there is going to be a crash. I accept the market is stagnating, I accept there will probably be a small fall, but do I think my flat will suddenly only be worth half the price I paid for it? No, I don't think that.

Anyone who thinks new build executive living is a good investment needs to pop down to Vauxhall. Who is going to buy all those flats or rent them?

Just IMO of course but I see the ripple effect from London/SE house prices has pushed up prices in desirable coastal/country areas where those taking early retirement or moving for 'quality of life' have sold a terraced house in Fulham for example and can now afford a country pile for the same money.
This distorts the market in these desirable areas (watch Escape to the country for how much money people have for the 'escape') as local wages are not sufficient to buy. I live rurally and bought my house 7 years ago - I would imagine it has gone up by perhaps 15% in that time. House prices should have dropped to affordable levels in 2008 but TPTB kept the plates spinning particularly in the London/SE bubble.

Interest rates need to rise (cannot believe how long they have been so low) so that saving for a deposit is easier and people will look for a home rather than an investment

Murane

There are speculators right across the country now. Even speculators have been priced out of London! You're naïve if you think that that won't affect you.

Plus if prices fall in London, it has a knock on effect, as people who were going to buy somewhere cheaper decide they can afford to buy in London after all. So fewer people buy in other towns. So prices fall there too.

drearydeardre - Yes, you've nailed one of the huge problems of a situation in which there are such huge differences in the market - exacerbated by the fact that, with interest rates so low, property looks like a better bet than many pension pots.

the stock market for houses bounces around all over the place. it's also just had a massive rises over the last year so I wouldn't get overly excited about it.
While I build houses for a company i am still on a fairly regular salary, so rising prices do nothing to help me personally.