BTW, what Browder and Lucas said at the committee has suddenly made some things fall into place for me.
I couldn't understand what Russia (or even just the oligarchy) gained from public assassination attempts in other countries.
After all, the Russian home audience is already scared of being arrested or killed for opposing the oligarchy, and will presumably suspect any unexpected death of an opposing figure to be murder – even when it's not. Meanwhile publicly killing people overseas in ways that constitute thumbing one's nose at a host country will stoke anger in that country, and could lead to actual serious consequences, for the oligarchs or for Russia as a country. Why take such a needless risk?
Now it's dawned on me that Russia's best interest or greater glory don't even come into this – it's purely about Putin's personal best interest. He needs visible external enemies in order to present himself as the valiant defender and vanquishing hero, and bind the Russian people to him personally as their saviour. And he's willing to risk future actual harm to Russia to create those enemies – or the illusion of enemies.
Sorry, maybe that's been bleeding obvious to everyone else all along. But I've only just made the shift from seeing actions as being "for the greater glory of Russia" to seeing them as being "for the greater safety of Putin."