*I've weighed more than 20 stones for more than 20 years now, and am 60 yrs old and only 5ft 3.
I have never had a stroke.
I have never had a heart attack.
I am not diabetic.
My cholesterol is always under 6 and currently 3.9.
My BP is normal.
All my organs are functioning correctly.*
I think a lot of people ignore genetics. If you want to know about your future health, it's a lot more accurate to look at your direct family than to look at population statistics. My family (and I come from big families on both sides), both sides, are made up of big, athletic women (all muscle and brawn in their 20's, and all curves and rolls by their 40's) and tall, skinny men (6 ft 4, and not a bit of a belly even in their 60's).
In general, both sides eat pretty healthy, drink moderately and are moderately or very active.
However, the women have all lived well into their 90's with the exception of my Mother's mother who started her 2 pack a day habit when she was 11 and died at 75. Very little health issues with the exception of one case of breast cancer, one case of skin cancer (that's what you'll get after 50 years of lying in the sun covered in baby oil), and low pressure issues.
The men, have all developed Type II diabetes, have died of or had multiple heart attacks and strokes, high cholesterol, etc. My father's father died aged 93 of unknown causes (10 days after my gran died) after 2 major strokes, 2 heart attacks and years of high cholesterol.
It's not as easy as fat vs. thin.