To wonder what will happen when there are no iobs

[rainandfire]

When technology does everything, driving, deliveries, retail ... what will people do then?

Really interesting reading the replies in this thread.

It’s interesting that 2 of the irreplaceable jobs mentioned by multiple people are Kitchen Fitter and Electrician.

They do sound like they would be very, very difficult to automate but that’s at least partly because we (I) try to imagine some robots trying to assemble a kitchen cabinet and attach it to a wall, or a robot electrician fitting a new light switch.

What if we don’t need a kitchen, per se, because we don’t actually do the cooking anymore? Or perhaps someone comes along with a machine that 3D prints your new kitchen, in situ?

What if there doesn’t need to be a wire going from the fuse panel to the light fitting because the current is delivered wirelessly (even wireless device charging was unimaginable not that many years ago)?

It’s that sort of thinking that embodies Industry 4, rather than imagining automation of exactly how things currently are.

I can see a world where the 1% live in gated palaces with armed guards and the rest line up for basic rations and live in slums as there are no jobs. The rich will be just fine.

Agreed - as the forelock tugging responses to the tax dodgers prove - by the time most average folk notice, it will be too late.

as the forelock tugging responses to the tax dodgers prove

They associate themselves with the ones behind the gates. A human tendency. Sadly almost assuredly wrong.

What if we don’t need a kitchen, per se, because we don’t actually do the cooking anymore?

But we'd still need people to remove the old kitchen and re-model the room into something else. Given the millions of homes with kitchens, it would take an army of manpower many years to do it. So there you have loads of new jobs!

And can people stop explaining what they have googled to someone who has multiple qualifications in the field.

Assume you mean me? I have multiple qualifications in the field of digital service development too. You said you didn’t think self-drive buses were a possibility, I just wanted to draw your attention to the fact that they are. I didn’t need to google to find that out either - I’m aware of this kind of stuff because of my job.

Since you so confidently state They'll vote Labour, holding their hands out for freebies., I can only assume you are a landowner capable of self-supporting without a job if none are left, otherwise it would be "we will need handouts/ find a solution".

Thing is that software is never perfect and needs manual workarounds, ever changing tax legislation changes faster than the software providers can program the changes,

Things such as tax return systems are not ‘software’, as such. These are web pages or apps that can have real time changes run into them at any point. There will be a team sitting behind the tool to manage these changes (a v small team) but there is no such thing any more as a big bit of software being developed and then rolled-out in one big release every time things change. So there are ongoing changes to make but requiring the efforts of very few people.

This way of delivering digital systems is what has really driven the acceleration of development of digital services over the last ten years.

Automated software engineering apps are already being developed.

there is no such thing any more as a big bit of software being developed and then rolled-out in one big release every time things change.

Tell HMRC that! They still run on regular "big" updates to their software. Only last month, they finally issued a huge patch to correct last years' tax return software, some 18 months after the new tax rules came into effect.

You may be right about modern "apps", but a huge amount of older software is still updated in huge updates periodically. It'll take decades for every last bit of software to be moved over to internet based apps. There are even specialist software programs still in use today nationally and internationally that are based on DOS. So this brave new "app" world isn't going to replace everything any time soon.

"The problem with this is that things need to reach a certain point before this becomes a necessity, rather than a lifestyle choice."

Just ask those living in old mining regions, or steel making and here in Liverpool when the Merchant Navy and factories went (to overseas locations, as well as down south).

We have had lots of redundancies since Brexit, to add to the numbers of those who there isn't jobs for, yet we still get "Benefits are a lifestyle choice" bandied about. Be grateful that those people who are happy not to work, exist, or you would live in the equivalent of Somalia/Rwanda and other dangerous parts of the World.

If we have a Tory Government who deny that there aren't enough jobs, or the disabled, then we will be living in the 1800's to around 1930.

Then we will have facist groups that look to blame certain groups, the media won't certainly counter this view and then we will have holocausts.

So we will all have to pick our tribe wisely, or wake the fuck up.

Perhaps we should look at the workers that Australia is seeking, because they seem to match what computers cannot do... Hairdressing, building work, dentists...

As others have noted, though, the vast majority of us (or our dcs and gdcs rather) will not have the money to do anything other than exist. I'm not going to get rid of my books as my descendents will need something cheap to do!

Or Detroit. It is happening now, yes.

Just ask those living in old mining regions, or steel making and here in Liverpool

Yes, but it's still evolution. There were open fields before the mines and the occasional fishing boat out of Liverpool, if you go back just a few hundred years. The mines and dockyards and steel works took their workforce out of the fields and villages. No one would even have dreamt of those changes before they happened, just as now they're becoming just a memory. Things change. It's how we adapt that matters, not fighting change.

But in the US as one can't have escaped noticing in the press (and Louis Theroux) one of the results of a workless population is opioid abuse. Imagine being born and having no prospects . For every person who can get on their bike, there are ten who don't want to/aren't able to/can't conceive of the idea of doing so and they are the ones who are ripe for drug addiction. Also collapse of values (as witnessed in LR's documentary about gun crime in poor black communities in US) where life becomes cheap.

I'm hoping to enjoy myself and play a whole load more candy crush than I get to at the moment. I'm also planning to learn some more musical instruments and maybe a martial art or two.

I am an accountant.
I see absolutely NO evidence of job losses coming down the track.
Only outsiders think that our job involves adding up numbers.
We got the spreadsheets doing that decades ago.

Our job is to assess what is missing from the numbers and how best they should be used in light of the requirements of the client.

Algorithms that can do that are a couple of decades away.

My work is "internal controls" again, darned near impossible to automate as its all about nuance, shades of grey and interpretation.

I'm not convinced that driverless cars will have a big impact in the UK, possibly driverless lorries on motorways etc that are restricted to one lane, but not on our already crowded urban roads.

One would hope they are programmed to ure on the side of caution which means the times when our roads are most busy they'll hardly move; trying to negotiate mobile-wielding pedestrians, cyclists weaving in and out and drivers jumping lights, playing with their phone, shouting at the kids etc. all of which I regularly see everyday.

Presumably, they'll also be designed to record what other road users are doing to provide evidence in the cash of a collision which will be submitable in court? Given the endless whining and whinging we already get from motorists caught speeding, parking illegally etc with existing infrastructure, this will only increase to levels that any government would find intolerable. Unless, of course, the government was made up of robots who don't sexually abuse, fiddle their expenses or dodge paying taxes?

Can’t see how any care jobs will be replaced. Only very very simple like Skype into your TV and check v v able have taken meds or do medical
Check.
I had carer this morning even if was hoist could get you out of bed and in shower without needing a person. How are they gpingvwash your hair? Shave your legs? Put your pants on right way around? Put your socks on? Change bed sheets? Sort out fridge of date food- even if dosnt have a bar code. You will need about 50 different Robots or equipment. A person on mim
Wage would be so much cheaper.

Driverless buses have appeared on a few roads, yes. You know what they have on them? Drivers! to take over when needed. We don't have the tech to manage heavy rain or snow, or recognise signals from other vehicles properly, or to account for random human behavior.
And we are severely lacking in laws that would allow for large scale use of driverless buses, not to mention the impossibility of insurance.

They said this in the late 60s/early 70s and we just have different jobs, the next generation brought up with those jobs in mind. It was expected that there would be no secretaries or PAs, no admins, no letters, everything would be paperless long before the 70s were over. It’s just about going that way now, but it’s taken 40 years.

We’ve lost almost all our manufacturing though, which wasn’t expected but that’s not really down to automation.

I’d love to see a citizen’s wage, every job shared, no one working more than 3 days a week. There are too many people unwilling to share their workload or drop their hours. If everyone did, it would be great!

Since most of the jobs around today didn't exist even 50 years ago, I'm betting that there will be new jobs we haven't even dreamed of in another 50 years. Humans are incredibly inventive.

Universal income. And I guess companies having to pay a levy to the state for every job they replace with technology.

In the meantime, don't use the self checkouts ;)

I was coming on to say exactly what jux said. People have been saying this for 40 years. I was discouraged from doing secretarial work at school as we were told robots and computers would be doing everything when in fact I could still be doing a job as a secretary/PA now.

In a way everyday life has not changed as much due to technology as you would think. The set up in schools and classrooms has barely changed in 200 years. Still 30 kids crammed into one room and an adult at the front. The only difference is there is a whiteboard rather than a blackboard.

We will all have to live off the crumbs of the rich and powerful while they get richer and more powerful. It's already happening. One rule for them and another for everyone else...Paradise Papers cough cough.