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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

to worry about the end of jobs ...

77 replies

Parietal · 04/12/2016 21:09

... and the failure of our politicians to do anything about it.

OK, so here is the story -

In the movies, the robots look like humans and do the same kind of things, so we can understand them. But the real changes are coming from systems that don't look anything like humans. These artificial intelligence systems are starting to take over jobs, and will take many more over the next decade.

Here are a few examples -

Every time you shop and pay at one of those self-serve tills, that machine is doing the job that a human would have done 5 years ago.

Driverless cars & trucks (which will here in 5 years) will put taxi-drivers, bus drivers and truck drivers out of work everywhere. Driving is one of the last jobs available for people with minimal qualifications - what will all these people do when the job of 'driver' no longer exists?

when it comes to phone-helpline jobs, artificial voice recognition systems like Alexa are getting very very good - soon we won't need call centers with 100s of people renewing your insurance, because an AI will do it for you. That is a lot of jobs gone.

Manufacturing is vanishing, but not just to overseas. Again, machines can now do the job of many people so a factory can run on less people. Foxcomm in China (which makes iphones) fired 50,000 people in the last year because they had replaced them with machines.

And white-collar jobs are at risk too. Image recognition can detect cancers in scans nearly as well as radiographers. There are websites that can generate legal letters to appeal parking fines or housing benefits without needing a lawyer. There are artificial intelligences doing graphic design and advertising too.

Of course, not all jobs will go and not all at once. Many jobs requiring personal contact (childcare, nursing etc) are very hard for AIs to do. But gradually, the number of jobs available will go down and the jobs that are left may well be less secure and less well paid. Meanwhile, our politicians insist that everyone MUST work for a living rather than getting benefit. And the people trapped with no career prospects turn to right-wing populists (Trump etc) because no one else seems to listen.

Some people think that we need to have a Basic Income that everyone gets regardless of work, and move to a post-work era in which having a job is neither required nor expected. But it is not clear if the finance adds up, nor how we get there.

So, AIBU to think that the story above is plausible and worrying?

And if so, does anyone have any ideas of what on earth should be done about it?

OP posts:
burgundyandgoldleaves · 04/12/2016 21:10

Buuuuut how will we get a basic income if no one is working and paying tax?

VeryBitchyRestingFace · 04/12/2016 21:12

Has Terminator been on the telly again? Smile

RebelandaStunner · 04/12/2016 21:12

Every time I shop at a self service till a human has come and sort the fucking thing out.

Manumission · 04/12/2016 21:13

The END of jobs?!

Blimey.

That's not an imminent concern is it?

I'm starting to be very very glad I'm not given to anxiety. I could easily write a list of things to worry about as long as my arm with MN for inspiration.

ThroughThickAndThin01 · 04/12/2016 21:16

Well I think you have a bit of a point.

Parietal · 04/12/2016 21:22

ok, so I exaggerate when I say the end of jobs. But I am quite serious in thinking that artificial intelligence is changing things in rapid and unpredictable ways. And this may be a cause of lots of social and political upheaval.

My children are under 10. what jobs will be available to them in 10 years time? 15 years time? because if AI keeps going like it is now, a lot of jobs will look very different in 10 years.

OP posts:
Manumission · 04/12/2016 21:25

Maybe it will polarise into elite management/knowledge jobs and the hands-on service jobs you mention (basically employed by the elite)?

BELLAARA · 04/12/2016 21:26

I worry about this on occasion too. Although i suppose there will be new jobs to design, build maintain the new tech. Throughout history as work has become mechanised, new jobs, to facilitate, will have replaced the old.

burgundyandgoldleaves · 04/12/2016 21:26

It will look different, certainly, but there will be other jobs in their place.

YoullNeverWeeAlone · 04/12/2016 21:29

Thing is, the whole economy requires us to buy more and more stuff. If we have no jobs and no money, nothing is bought. So they will have to allocate us funds to then try and persuade us to spend it with their company. Otherwise who are robots making this stuff for?

SpeckledyBanana · 04/12/2016 21:32

DH talks about Industry 4.0 doing away with humans, except that it relies on machines which need monitoring and fixing, so he's not convinced, based on current technology.

Kai1977 · 04/12/2016 21:35

Yeah I worry about this. The articles in the broadsheets seem to suggest lots of jobs would go, everything from law to marketing even low level medical services, not to mention the general service jobs. Even things like acting (virtual reality actors) and writing (computers could come up with loads of storyline permutations).

I also worry that when the robot revolution comes, the people who have the money will buy the best robots and those with less money will be disadvantaged. So we'll have a whole new class system.

And I know the self service machines are a bit crap now but I think it will be a very different story in 20 years (which is more time than it took for internet to take over the world). Robots will fix other robots. There will still be some jobs to do but way less than we have now.

Happy days Confused

refusetobeasheep · 04/12/2016 21:36

What on earth do you expect politicians to do? Look to the philosophers, the truly unique thinkers. They are out there.

HateSummer · 04/12/2016 21:49

How the hell will driverless cars work? What about traffic? What if it breaks down? What about looking out for hazards like children and old people crossing slowly? It's bs imo. Driverless cars can not work. Jobs are safe op. Don't worry yourself about silly things like this.

Parietal · 04/12/2016 21:58

HateSummer - there are driverless cars on the streets of Philadelphia right now, driving about without hitting people. they have computer vision systems and a bunch of sensors to detect when things are near by.

Driverless cars have a better safety record than cars with people, and several companies are ready to put them on the UK roads very soon.

OP posts:
Parietal · 04/12/2016 22:00

see here for driverless cars ...
www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-autos-driverless-idUSKCN12A2KX

OP posts:
harderandharder2breathe · 04/12/2016 22:12

I work in a call centre, many of my customers prefer to speak to a person so choose to call rather than use the website. An actual person is often needed to translate what they say into the language used by the business (that a computer could understand). And an actual person is often needed to rephrase something out of technical jargon until the caller understands it. An actual person is needed to interpret what the computer actually means due to work around used in the system.

So not only would voice recognition need to get A LOT better (I have a very average middle of the road accent and hate battling skys system, no idea how it copes with a strong accent!), the computer systems would need overhauling to no require human interpretation, and the public mindset would need to change to accepting complex info from a computer.

So not imminently worried no

blankpieceofpaper · 04/12/2016 22:23

Yes, it is a very real concern. There has been plenty emerging in the media over the last few years:

Will a robot take your job?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-34066941

The rise of automation:
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/science-news/12155808/Robots-will-take-over-most-jobs-within-30-years-experts-warn.html

It's white collar jobs potentially affected to:
www.cnet.com/news/stephen-hawking-donald-trump-automation-factories-inequality-artificial-intelligence-immigration/

It is a very interesting thing to confront - it may mean we as a society have to redefine our entire relationship with work and how we live out our lives. But there will be the elite and the wealthy, as ever.

Kai1977 · 04/12/2016 22:27

I guess I come back to my initial point. 20 years ago, forums like these barely existed, smartphones didn't exist, email wasn't as widely used, voice recognition didn't exist and we wouldn't have been able to imagine any of these things being as advanced as they now are.

There are already stats about younger people using apps etc over speaking to their friends, staying in and watching Youtube and Netflix over going out. People are already gearing up for a world where human interaction is not the norm.

So I think it is all going to happen and it is all relatively imminent (certainly within my lifetime and I am in my thirties).

sleepingwork · 04/12/2016 22:40

I sometimes worry, but then I remember that even after 50 years of experimentation and £billions of research we still can't make a printer that doesn't require a human to turn up every half hour to sort the shredded jamnation of exploding tonastrophe.

Theoretician · 04/12/2016 22:53

No I'm not worried about the general implications of automation. It is always perfectly possible to organise society so that most adults are doing something useful most of the time, and to pay them for that work. If previously important jobs get automated and humans end up doing lower priority things, that will just mean we are all richer, as the automatons will be doing the most important things (e.g. producing food) much more efficiently than humans used to.

Theoretician · 04/12/2016 22:57

The economy evolves all the time. UK mines and shipyards close down. IT jobs move to India. Long ago, cars replaced horses as a means of transport. Robots coming along won't be the first time there will have been disruptive mass redundancies.

TheNaze73 · 04/12/2016 23:06

I think you're overthinking it OP. They'll always need a person to serve behind every bank cashpoint, sat in the wall all night & somebody poised on a tannoy to say cashier number 4 or unexpected item in the bagging area. Don't sweat it

Theoretician · 04/12/2016 23:07

On a side-note, can anyone think of any reason why robots should be made to resemble humans, other than their possible deployment in the sex industry? To the extent humanoid robots are ever built, I suspect more than 99% of them will be "pleasure models."

Yamadori · 04/12/2016 23:08

Cheer up. There will always be jobs for politicians Grin