Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

to worry about the end of jobs ...

77 replies

Parietal · 04/12/2016 21:09

... and the failure of our politicians to do anything about it.

OK, so here is the story -

In the movies, the robots look like humans and do the same kind of things, so we can understand them. But the real changes are coming from systems that don't look anything like humans. These artificial intelligence systems are starting to take over jobs, and will take many more over the next decade.

Here are a few examples -

Every time you shop and pay at one of those self-serve tills, that machine is doing the job that a human would have done 5 years ago.

Driverless cars & trucks (which will here in 5 years) will put taxi-drivers, bus drivers and truck drivers out of work everywhere. Driving is one of the last jobs available for people with minimal qualifications - what will all these people do when the job of 'driver' no longer exists?

when it comes to phone-helpline jobs, artificial voice recognition systems like Alexa are getting very very good - soon we won't need call centers with 100s of people renewing your insurance, because an AI will do it for you. That is a lot of jobs gone.

Manufacturing is vanishing, but not just to overseas. Again, machines can now do the job of many people so a factory can run on less people. Foxcomm in China (which makes iphones) fired 50,000 people in the last year because they had replaced them with machines.

And white-collar jobs are at risk too. Image recognition can detect cancers in scans nearly as well as radiographers. There are websites that can generate legal letters to appeal parking fines or housing benefits without needing a lawyer. There are artificial intelligences doing graphic design and advertising too.

Of course, not all jobs will go and not all at once. Many jobs requiring personal contact (childcare, nursing etc) are very hard for AIs to do. But gradually, the number of jobs available will go down and the jobs that are left may well be less secure and less well paid. Meanwhile, our politicians insist that everyone MUST work for a living rather than getting benefit. And the people trapped with no career prospects turn to right-wing populists (Trump etc) because no one else seems to listen.

Some people think that we need to have a Basic Income that everyone gets regardless of work, and move to a post-work era in which having a job is neither required nor expected. But it is not clear if the finance adds up, nor how we get there.

So, AIBU to think that the story above is plausible and worrying?

And if so, does anyone have any ideas of what on earth should be done about it?

OP posts:
Renniehorta · 05/12/2016 08:29

Surely this is something of a perfect storm. As AI is being mastered as the world's population gets ever bigger. Labour supply gets ever bigger as the need for it decreases.

High level jobs will probably remain the same or even increase. Jobs which have personal care / contact at their core will also remain. It is the lower level jobs that will be most likely to disappear.

I have wondered whether the proposal to bring back Grammar Schools is a recognition of this. Do we face a future where we will need a minority of highly educated workers and the vast majority won't be needed. Therefore it is a waste of money educating them and if they are poorly educated they will be easier to control?

FromAtoB · 05/12/2016 08:31

Are you me, OP?

I worry about this too. Especially when my colleagues are fretting about 'career progression'. I just want to say: Get real, your career won't exist pretty soon.

c3pu · 05/12/2016 08:33

Get a job fixing machines.

OllyBJolly · 05/12/2016 08:45

I'm not sure we can lay all of the fault at the door of the politicians. Some, yes.

How many people bemoaning the lack of jobs use internet shopping, or shop in chains that employ people on zero hour, casual contracts rather than pay a few pennies extra in the local shop where any profits are usually spent locally? It's consumers that drive this. We want everything faster and cheaper but don't think of the consequences.

The result is we have deskilled jobs to the extent we're getting towards having two kinds of worker - the minimum wage, no prospects, no rights worker and the "knowledge" worker. (And there is the third, the non worker - the shareholder who creams off the profits)

I grew up in a town that had two main employers. One was in electronics and the other was a tax centre. Many of my classmates started there and went on to have great careers. Both organisations invested a lot in careers, delivering training and encouraging employee development. The electronics company now only manufactures in China, and the tax centre has outsourced much of its staffing. Why would Capita finance a 17 year old through an accountancy qualification when they might lose the contract next time round?

Our whole public sector is becoming a procurement department. Who actually runs the hospitals and makes the clinical decisions? Increasingly it's the larger outsourcers. But it's okay because workers' rights are protected under TUPE? Not long term. Existing staff are all right, Jack, but new recruits will probably come in on lesser contracts, fewer rights, and weaker pensions.

Get a job fixing machines My brother was a mechanical engineer "fixing machines". He's been replaced by software developers. The need for hands on "fixers" is ebbing away.

Idodo · 05/12/2016 08:56

I think you have a point but people were saying this when I was in school in the 70s. I was told not to go into secretarial work as those jobs would soon be extinct but in reality those jobs have just evolved. I could have become a PA, office manager, IT technician and lots of related jobs in banking or finance or education.

There was also a concern that people would work less eg a three day week and would have a problem with what to do with all their leisure time [confised]. That has not materialised in my profession!

wasonthelist · 05/12/2016 09:01

Every time I shop at a self service till a human has come and sort the fucking thing out.

Me too, they are fucking hopeless - and before you think I'm a Luddite or brainless twerp, I know how they work and I do as I'm told. A woman in ASDA admitted to me that they are programmed to ask for "assistance" for selected items (not age or other restrictions) - for ASDA's benefit of course, not customers.

alltouchedout · 05/12/2016 09:13

Hmmm. I'm a social worker, I think AI will need to develop a lot before robots can do my job. DH builds lorries though, his job could be done by machines (although when there is a problem at his work it has invariably been caused by a malfunctioning machine).

I worry about this stuff too. I think UBI solutions are the way forward but we'd have to think of different ways of generating income to fund that if income tax was going to be so much less common.

HateSummer · 05/12/2016 09:58

Okay the driverless cars may already be here, but whose going to fix them when they break? And whose going to sort out the problems when someone drives into the back of one? Or what if one gets stolen?

OllyBJolly · 05/12/2016 10:15

Okay the driverless cars may already be here, but whose going to fix them when they break?

Like we used to have computer engineers. Now we just buy new ones.

MrsWhiteWash · 05/12/2016 10:30

I think there may be a reduction in numbers of certain jobs - there are usually people about for the complex not ordinary cases of whatever.

It's not that new though entire huge industries have gone.

My Dad did a skilled job in the biggest industry in the area we were in- it was massive. Over the course of his working life it automated some jobs but massive outsource to east where there were highly skilled cheap labour. Workplace got smaller and smaller now sold land for houses - he was made to take early retirement. Industry didn't last out his working life.

My MIL had a skilled job, unlikely my Dad not required qualifications , in the really big industry in their area - different bit of UK. Firms got fewer and smaller she finished last few years of her working life as a cleaner as all the jobs in her industry went abroad. Again massive industry didn't quite last her working lifetime.

I assume that why Labour gov in power when I started working life properly went on and on about no jobs for life - and need for ongoing training.

There will always be some jobs around - whether they pay well enough to life well off - well who knows.

wasonthelist · 05/12/2016 10:59

There's a big difference between shipping jobs overseas and eliminating them altogether though.

user1480182169 · 05/12/2016 11:08

You're exaggerating massively. We are a VERY long way from driverless buses. And AI is not nearly able to take over from humans in things like customer service.

you know we're just not as smart as we think we are.

amispartacus · 05/12/2016 11:13

Steam engines
Mills being powered by them.
Electricity replacing steam.

Technology changes and we change with them. Twas always thus.

Still, maybe artists and playwrites have a chance - can AI be creative?

pennycarbonara · 05/12/2016 11:25

A quick search shows currently operating pilot projects for driverless buses in Greece, Finland, and plans to start them soon in Singapore (following successful use at a business park) and Florida.

MrsWhiteWash · 05/12/2016 11:42

There's a big difference between shipping jobs overseas and eliminating them altogether though

Why there are gone and won't ever be coming back.

People find new jobs and industries or they don't and struggle.

People with the jobs that went abroad - have same issue cheaper countries to compete against and new tech making some of the jobs obsolete.

I don't think it's different just because it involves AI - jobs are gradually lost and industries change and shrink and hopefully new ones start up.

I think there are many areas where AI or computer systems can only ever be tools.

PitilessYank · 05/12/2016 11:48

I have seen the driverless cars (and they are actually in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, not Philadelphia (no offense intended).

They do carry two people in front, a "driver" who can make small adjustments as needed, and an engineer observing the process.

But the drivers I see are usually eating an apple or something like that, hands off the wheel. Driverless cars will reduce traffic fatalities by over 90%, it is estimated.

I am a big fan of the idea of a Universal Basic Income.

YelloDraw · 05/12/2016 11:58

You're exaggerating massively. We are a VERY long way from driverless buses.

I give it 10 years.

Anyway, what about driver less trains? We already have the tech (and it is used on DLR) but the backward fucking despicable RMT throws a stop and strikes all the time so the tech won't ever be used on the tube until the RMT can be broken. Oh they SAY it is about safty, and about station staff etc - but at the core the RMT is flexing their muscle to prevent driver less trains killing their reason d'etre.

JeepersMcoy · 05/12/2016 12:22

I am also increasingly coming round to the idea of universal basic income. However, I think that attitudes to wealth, work and poverty will have to change considerably before it would be excepted more widely.

I suspect chunks of my current job will disappear in the next 10-15 years if not sooner. AI could do a lot of it based on decent data and the ability to make and test changes based on analysis. However, the strategic part of my job would remain for a while longer. A human will still be wanted to point the direction for the computers to follow.

Right now I am looking at changing career into a caring role, specifically in mental health. While I think AI will be able to take on routine caring and diagnostic roles I don't think it will ever really be able to understand humans on an individual level, particularly when they aren't acting in a normal fashion. I think roles where you need to be able to work with and understand an individual human on an emotional level will always need humans.

I am not overly worried about this, while it is a concerning factor when you take into account other trends and events around the world at the moment. Changes happen and humanity shifts and wobbles and eventually works it out. It will be difficult for a while though.

DesolateWaist · 05/12/2016 13:03

Long way from driverless busses?

Look for the pod parking at Heathrow.

sterlingcooper · 05/12/2016 13:34

Paris already has at least 2 driverless metro lines.

The first leap forward in AI will come if/when 'general artificial intelligence' is mastered. AI that can do everything as well as a human, not just do a few things eg win at chess OR navigate OR drive a car, but all these things together and everything else that humans can do. Like hold a conversation, be persuasive and manipulative, understand the meaning of a story, understand emotional cues, make strategic plans etc etc...as well as all the physical stuff necessary to act in the world.

After that, it could be a quick leap to superintelligence, where with machine learning , GAI quickly becomes more intelligent than the whole human race combined. That would be the real game changer...

ExcuseMyEyebrows · 05/12/2016 17:34

sterlingcooper thank you for the link you posted. That is the most interesting and terrifying article I have ever read.

sterlingcooper · 05/12/2016 21:58

Self-service tills aren't even robots taking people's jobs. That would be like, you push your trolley into a box, and it comes out the other end with the total.

They're just making the customer do the work that the shop used to do.

Heh, look what has popped up in the news today...

www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/05/amazon-go-store-seattle-checkouts-account

sterlingcooper · 05/12/2016 22:02

Glad you liked / were terrified by it Excuse. The Turry scenario alone is pretty mind blowing.

PossumInAPearTree · 05/12/2016 22:07

Driverless cars are on the roads in California. There have been some accidents I believe. I read that they can't "see" white cars and pull out in front of them!

Ylvamoon · 05/12/2016 22:18

I work with a computer system that is designed to replace humans...
Bloody useless!
You can't replicate any cross cultural intellect, languages or reasoning.

Machines are purely mathematical- so some jobs will go whilst at the same time others are created.

Swipe left for the next trending thread