To do a straw poll on whether you're happy with where Brexit is heading?

[Bearbehind]

This isn't about the whys and wherefores of how we got here but, since no one I speak to IRL is happy with the path Brexit is leading us down and I've just seen a poll in the Metro strongly in favour of abandoning Brexit it got me wondering how wide spread it is.

This isn't supposed to be an argument thread or even how you voted, just Are you happy heading towards a hard Brexit

Yes or No

Doesn't matter what Cameron said or did. Doesn't matter what people thought they voted for.

It's what is actually legally binding. Referendum was advisory.

I really did hope that in the event of a brexit vote that parliament would step in before we just hit the big red button. Or they'd at least step in with a plan. Or a wishlist. Even if they'd stepped in with a picture of a kitten it would have been an improvement. Though TBF I knew they were scaremongering there and wouldn't just hit the button plus Cameron would go, so it wasn't a massive concern at the time.

BTW if we're running brexit on what those who voted peace thought they were getting it's going to be impossible to meet all of those vested interests.

I'm more then happy to go into that detail corcory

I used the analogy of leaving the to leaving the EU to prove they are not remotely comparable.

We are contractually obliged to honour the 2 years after a50 is invoked- that's the rules.

We can't just run away with our ball, not least because the EU have plenty of replacement balls and don't really give a shit about playing with our ball.

Anyone arrogant enough to think we can still call the shots while we're on our way out typifies the delusional mentality of Leave voters IMO.

Bugger-wrong thread!

Why? Where is it heading?

Are you one of the people who boted remain?

I would have thought MN is quite representative of a cross action of society on this subject

In my humble opinion, its not. Its largely middle class and south east based. The people who voted for brexit are largely working class and older and live in 'fogotten' communities.

Ok ifihad I'm happy to be proved wrong but what exactly will 'forgotten' communities' gain from voting out?

The protest vote was pointless IMO because all it did was shoot those communities in the foot.

There is my Walrus and Carpenter example again, people were convinced to vote for something that was in direct opposition to their own interests.
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Bear I agree if they committed to staying in the single market and respect the referendum, then that is what they should negotiate. However, I cannot find anything that says that in the manifesto.

I, and others, have given you many reasons we voted Leave and they are not enough to persuade you. This is not surprising, because, if they had, you would have voted leave. There is no 'magic' thing you were unaware of.

Control over tax policy (VAT etc) - not good enough
EU declaring Ireland's tax laws illegal - not good enough
Control over borders - not good enough
Control over laws - not good enough
Control over trading partners - not good enough
Being held back from trade deal with Canada by Wallonia - not good enough
Concern over further integration - not good enough
Realising the EU cannot be changed from within (Cameron's renegotiation) - not good enough
Worry about minor economic effects (per capita GDP in 2030 being 25% higher than today rather than 29% higher (PwC under WTO rules) and scared of change - Must stay in EU

They committed to "safeguarding British interests in the single market" direct quote.

Your critique of the VAT policy ignores the fact that Cameron was told he could change some of it, and that its fairly minor.

"EU declaring Ireland's tax laws illegal - not good enough" Bollocks Ireland effectively granted Apple the ability to avoid paying tax anywhere in the EU which is essentially government aid, not allowed. Would have to be agreed by a government prior to entering WTO agreements too, which would unlikely be ratified either.

Crap argument.

"Control over laws - not good enough" Again, which laws would you like to see repealed. I know you want the ones protecting employees changed for SMEs, utterly for your own gain. Invalid reasoning.

Control over trading partners? Just wait and see what deals we get signed up to, we certainly won't get deals that are more preferential than those the EU can negotiate. See Switzerland's deal with China for further reference.

"Concern over further integration - not good enough" Exemption from ever further union was granted and enforceable under international law. Not a valid reason.

"Realising the EU cannot be changed from within (Cameron's renegotiation) - not good enough" Cameron got change, the UK already had the most preferential deal of any of the EU states, further drivel Carol.

Sorry but these aren't valid reasons for voting to leave, some of them show a wilful ignorance of the facts too.

So its not just your economics that's faulty, its your entire critical analysis.

Good to know.

Cameron got change, the UK already had the most preferential deal of any of the EU states Exactly, but the UK didn't get what it was fully demanding therefore the EU is too rigid and the problem.

Ah well, lets see how much the UK gets when negotiating from the outside.

The best deal will seem to be the one that we had.

The EU wasn't the problem, the UK cake and eat it attitude is.

So if the EU agreed to handbreaks on freedom of movement, can the EU apply hand breaks on freedom of capital for the UK? Ah no that would be unfair wouldn't it?

Nope, carol none of the above are good enough in light of the negative repercussions that come with leaving the EU.

Feel free to counter any of these:-

• sterling that's now worth the square root of fuck all
• loss of access to the single market
• loss of financial passporting
• loss of investment in the UK due to lack of export opportunities
• loss of collaboration in STEM due to the UK no longer being part of the EU.
• current multinational companies leaving the UK because it's no longer beneficial to be here
• complete lack of options to increase exports
• massive hike in cost of inputs to UK exports

Control over law/ borders/ taxes is always going to be limited. The government have always hidden behind the EU in order to impose more punitive terms than they might otherwise have done. That excuse will be gone and we sure are shit aren't going to see massively beneficial changes for the working man.

You tell me why a trade deal with Canada is the answer to all our woes and maybe I'll listen.

Of course it would small, because its not in our favour and we don't understand the concept of union

See that I think has been the entire problem since day 1 of being in the EU. We want everything our own way and are shocked when other countries want some of their interests represented too.

Quite frankly some anti EU folk basically expect the EU to behave like dominions of empire, it'll be a shock when those former dominions don't do that anymore either.

Yes, I feel like that's how England views Scotland, Wales and NI too. We don't like it when EU changes things for us but if we do it for Scotland they should just STFU about it and take it.

It's not actually a huge leap from that to think there's an element who think we'll give this a go and if it doesn't work out we'll go back.

There is. There is a question about whether A50 is reversible or not, so it is believed that it may be possible to invoke a50, negotiate for two years, and then if we don't like the result of the negotiation, just stay in the EU...

My point about VAT is explained up thread and no change has been offered. Again, you are not listening - people disagree with you, they weigh the pros and cons differently.
FYI - I have no personal interest in SME legislation and work for a company which may be negatively affected (certainly if i take your views) by Brexit. So not a personal interest.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35834142

Incorrect on VAT.

I think we are listening, but you aren't back. You don't accept any of the risks or seek to underplay them.

We've discussed before the impact of regulations on SMEs and you were all for them being able to opt out of things like maternity pay.

carol I know a member of the original UK VAT committee.
The USA is the only OECD country without VAT and their sales tax system is a disaster zone.
India is currently bringing in a version of VAT

although VAT is an explicitly EU tax, there is no way that a Brexit Governement will give up on it as consumption taxes are so easy to raise

minor tweaks might happen
but as the UK perfected the art of "gold plating" - only enough to bring the UK back to the level that the rest of the EU has always had

Smallfox Please stop repeating bollocks - you complain when other people do not read the facts, I would appreciate if you did so - i have linked upthread that the report refers to a paper introducing a centralized EU VAT system and, as part of that, member states may be able to review the zero rated items. Either you are too stupid to understand or continual to peddle myths to mislead people, it does not help your arguments at all.

Where have I said I do not accept the risks? I disagree with you about how bad I expect things to be, there is a debate about whether the uncertainty will cause a recession, for example, but I am not underplaying them - just think the risks are worth the potential benefit listed. You don't, hence we voted different ways.

As far as SME's are concerned, it is very difficult for micro-businesses to follow all the rules and there are ways that, for example, small firms could be supported through things such as maternity leave, with, for example, enhanced support from the government. My point is that you can support SME's and workers with imagination, but not with the EU.

EleanorRigby123

Australia will always do well (with occasional problems) because it has huge natural resources. There is a reason why it is called "the lucky country". It's certainly not a complement concerning the way it is governed.

I'm not aware of any Brexiteers saying the UK should be like Australia, except with regards to their points-based immigration system. It's a large, empty country with rich natural resources and therefore with an economy quite unlike Britain's.

Allotmenty

Just an extra comment. Trade between the UK and the ex-dominions used to be huge. So despite them being smaller markets the trade may actually have been comparable. Find a picture of an NZ street in the 1960s, and it will be full of Minis, Morris Minors and Hillmans. Even ten years ago there were plenty of Triumph 2000s on the roads.

Bearbehind

I was more commenting than trying to answer you, hence my post's ambiguity. My point was more that a sensible solution can certainly be found if politicians on both sides of the channel are prepared to negotiate in a sensible way, but the current rhetoric indicates that they're not - and that they have no clue.

NZ exports food, and produces it far more efficiently than the EU. It used to export huge amounts to the UK, which hasn't been self-sufficient in food since about 1850 and won't be again unless two thirds of the population leave. Same with Canada and Australia. Both could import financial services.

I don't think they would make up for the loss of EU markets though.

NotDavidTennant

but they are basically just British people with funny accents (they even have the same royalty as us!) and therefore clearly more decent and trustworthy than any Frog or Kraut.

They have basically the same legal system and strong cultural similarities, yes. So less chance for misunderstandings.

smallfox2002

"Concern over further integration - not good enough" Exemption from ever further union was granted and enforceable under international law. Not a valid reason.

No it wasn't. There was a sort of informal agreement that Britain would be exempted from this. Unfortunately the term is written into the EU treaties, and amending them would have required the consent of every EU member state. It's a great pity that this possibility wasn't explored further. However, the fact of the matter is that it wasn't, and the undertaking given to the UK wasn't legally enforceable.

carol Are you referring to when you wrote this:
The EU published this as their part of the deal to allow zero rating of sanitary products.
That wasn't a direct response to the request to reduce taxation on sanitary products, its part of a wider review on the VAT system. You can't really claim the EU is unreformable then complain they themselves are looking at their out of date systems.
It also lays out possibilities to simplify things for SMEs and take the burden off them in comparison to large businesses.

"Being held back from trade deal with Canada by Wallonia - not good enough"

How can that be? Members of the EU aren't democratic, independent or sovereign countries.

Maybe if the UK had a more democratic system like Belgium, Scotland and NI would not be overturned by whatever England wanted. And I thought Brussels was supposed to dictate to everyone.

I can't say "I'm happy" with how it's going (which I think is the OP's question) however it's what I expected to happen.

DH and I voted out and we remain committed to that. Surprised that people think the T May would be anything other than discreet in her dealings at the moment.