Aibu to think that "suspended adulthood" is going to lead to large problems?

[BlancheBlue]

www.theguardian.com/society/2016/sep/22/young-people-living-in-a-suspended-adulthood-finds-research

Just this really. There was a telling comment about this article with the ever increasing age profile of parents the chance of children knowing grandparents is going to be remote.

I think lots of the boomer generation really fail to understand this. Whenever it is said it is tough for young people que loads of "well I worked my arse off and owned a house by the time I was 21" type comments.

You pray for a crash cause your stupid, greedy and you think it will benefit you.

It won't, but it will effect millions of others.

Isn't that the problem, though, anotherone? People like Garden are internalising the message of 'I've done ok, so screw you, you should be willing to sacrifice absolutely everything you care about if you want stable housing' from all over the place (including threads like this).

Is it a wonder that the sentiment is reciprocated?

Not saying it's right - just that it is understandable.

I agree completely with this sentiment.

Garden I'm with you it can go on forever may as well make the best of it. Do you reckon the crash will be during negotiations or after we actually leave... I need a few years because atm i could only do 5% on a 60k house

I don't know garden, I thought a crash was coming a long time ago. So did my husband. We were very cautious in the housing market. We didn't want to over extend ourselves. The income to loan multiples looked unsustainable. We figured there would either be a crash or inflation. Neither came. The housing market has been a one way bet for over 15 years now.

It's hard to call or to control because the market is no longer driven by domestic fundamentals. There is a lot of speculative foreign investment.

can't not can

Maybe campaigning will make a difference but so will people getting off their backsides and doing what they can to improve their chances.

What do you mean by make a difference?

It might make a difference to certain individuals who are able to move somewhere cheaper, still earn there, access enough capital to do the place up and rely on kind relatives who let them shower and friends with trades. But if this is a small number of people it's only an option for a minority, and if it's an option for more than a small number of people then, by definition, those cheap wrecks your son likes buying stop being so cheap. You're basically nit picking at the corners. And you don't really want more people to do as your son did, because then your other kids won't be able to!

Let me walk you through the economic implications of a housing market crash, just to dispel any ideas you might have of it benefiting first time buyers.

Price crash of 30%

Leads to a freeze in the housing market, which means that only those that have to sell do so.

Consumer confidence falls as house prices do, consumption falls which leads to firms making staff redundant.

A recession ensues, leading to a further drop in consumer confidence as consumers save and stop spending.

With higher unemployment comes houses reposessed, but as the market has fallen further banks are unable to reclaim all of the money owed.

Banks have to write billions from their balance sheets, and are more reticent to lend. Higher deposits needed, with lower multiples of mortgages etc.

You're still waiting to buy, you might not even have a job.

The cash rich are able to buy though.

People who think prices will rise forever and ever and interest rates will never rise will be in for a rude shock at some point - the global economy is pretty unstable and the way that economies are so tied together a large problem even not in the UK will cause major issues

Hyacinth

Look at the context. It was a comment/ reply to a question of campaigning gov for change, rather than what that change would provide. It was considering the difference between campaigning or not.

Yes I know a crash would be bad (understatement) but this nonsense of houses massively outstripping wages can't continue indefinitely.

I saw the context, and I still think you're not considering the bigger picture and it's a mistake to think only in individual term.

Anyone praying for a crash is assuming that they won't be adversely effected by the impact on the economy.

They don't know what they are praying for.

Another way to look at things

I like the way this article is insisting on soaring rent prices and the number of unused houses, usually luxury ones, whilst there is no incentive to build cheap and affordable houses.

TBH, I would also welcome a system where individuals could buy a plot of land and build their house their way. That can be done very cheaply compare to how much an already build house costs. But this is not available as the onlly plots available are ones for developers (even if it's 2 or 3 houses, this will be out of range for most people)

disagree that a crash is inevitable. People have been saying that for the last 20 years at least. Even in the last recession, which was a significant one - prices dipped in most places but didn't come close to crashing. Some places didn't even dip.

I don't think it's unfeasible that prices could continue to rise, although possibly not as significantly. The population is increasing, people are living longer so holding on to houses, pensions are worth less so people are making other types of long-term investments such as housing, cost of renting is increasing, targets for new-build housing aren't being met, UK (particularly London) is still seen as a strong investment for wealthy individuals from other countries which has a knock-on effect on the rest of the country, conservative government has given no indication that house building on a large scale is any sort of priority (the number of MPs who are landlords has risen by a 1/4 since last parliament)...

I could accept the likelihood of house prices stagnating, or only increasing in much slower increments - but as long as the demand for homes still outstrips supply to such an extent I can't see how it could result in a significant crash?

I've just bought my first house aged 27 so am not moralising from a different generation - I fully understand wishing for circumstances to change to be able to afford to buy somewhere you want, but in terms of positive changes only, e.g. I wish I could get a better job or a pay increase, or that a house in a specific affordable area would come up for sale, or that my bank would offer me a slightly better rate for being a loyal customer (ha!).

I couldn't imagine wishing for something that would benefit me at the cost of someone else's misfortune. It would feel akin to me wishing a family member would drop dead and leave me money, or that my colleague would get sacked so I could have her job.

Wage inflation would help a lot.

I think the biggest problem is the disparity between the prices in the SE and elsewhere.

In the SE people struggle to get onto the ladder because of the high prices but, as a previous poster has said, inheritances or gifts can enable their families to buy at those inflated prices and perpetuate that cycle. Meanwhile bright and talented young people from outside the SE have no hope as their inheritance or support will be too small to allow them to live there and gain the career advantages. The high property values perpetuate the advantages of the area and those who live in it

When my DS was studying it was a real advantage to do an internship but all of them were in London and unpaid so not possible for most from outside the SE as accommodation was unaffordable. They were only accessible for the wealthy or those from that area which then gave them an advantage in applying for the best jobs

Piscivorus what you say about your DS & other young people from outside the south east rings very true to my experience having moved from London to the east of England.

I was doing an apprenticeship and was 3 months it when we moved. I wouldn't have got it had I been living 70 miles away and though I was paid very well as far as apprentices go I couldn't afford to stay there on my own.

Posted too soon.

As a result of moving so far away I had to spend more than half of my income then, a third now, to do a 2hr each way commute.

Where I live now I could theoretically buy a house because it's cheap, I couldn't do the commute and the mortgage(or even rent) at the same time.

T4 and Barbarian make a lot of sense but Barbarian in particular is not being heard. There is no, one issue, but changing expectations IS an issue as is the infrastructure which creates an artificial bubble around the south east.

Those 'nice' areas that people want to live and the skanky areas where people don't want to live? Many of those 'nice' areas were once skanky and changed because people chose to move there and the demographic changed.

I don't know many people who are not prepared to move an area in their town or city to get started.

I do resent the suggestion that people should move region.

There is no, one issue, but changing expectations IS an issue as is the infrastructure which creates an artificial bubble around the south east.

House prices, relative to income, have risen. And risen. And risen. That is an issue which makes housing significantly more difficult to buy (and to rent!), and is not about 'changing expectations'.

I am baffled that so many people can say, effectively, "well yes houses are much more expensive to buy, but I'm sure that's not the real problem why people are having more trouble buying them. It must be something to do with Starbucks and iPhones and irresponsibility instead."

And I don't think anyone would disagree that London and the SE are particularly insane, but housing costs are a problem nationally, not just there.

Thing is another one, in hoping there isn't a drop you're also wishing for something that will benefit yourself at the expense of others. People who can't have any hope of buying otherwise. That's the awful thing about this ridiculous situation. Whatever happens, some group of people are fucked. I don't see why one is more or less worthy than the other.

Not being funny, if you haven't got a hope of buying unless the economy goes through a period of intense instability then you can't buy.

My DM, baby boomer, doesn't understand how much harder things are for younger people now.

In her early 20s they bought a 3 bed post war semi in a naice suburb. Garage, garden, part dg, gch. They did this with one working ft one pt in manuel & semi prof jobs (no degrees). Free childcare by local relatives.

She says that took sacrifice because they had to save up for furniture etc.

She doesn't get that an equivalent couple now wouldn't be able to buy that unless their parents gave them a £100k deposit!

That hour has increased in value by £140k in the last quarter century. Interest rates are lower but not that much lower!

(Not se)