To be confused about this Zika virus 'threat' ?

[batshitlady]

It seems only 270 cases of microcephaly (babies born with small heads and brain impairment) have actually ben cvonfirmed in Brazil (pop' 200,000,000) and of those 270, only six were found to have the Zika virus?

Yet governments all over the world are claiming that Zika causes microcephaly. Doesn't make sense does it?

We are travelling further afield than usual this summer. I did check whether there was zika in the area because there is so little understanding. Whilst none of us are likely to get pregnant, I have a teen dd. My concerns were as to whether latent infection could later cause issues in pregnancy. We just don't know.

Vertigo if twenty percent of the population were born with this condition can you imagine the strain it would put on healthcare systems? As with many things there is a degree to which people suffer with microcephaly - some die very early on and the range of complications is quite large. It's not about shame, its about suffering.

Oh, well if you read it on the press website it must be true then... again, what is your point?

One of the problems is that there are very few centres currently capable of testing for zika - there isn't a quick test yet batshit. There has been a huge and rapid increase in cases. something must be causing them. At the moment zika seems most likely. If we were to wait until we had full understanding, the result could be catastrophic.

I and my children suffer daily. I will shuffle off to the corner then. The neurotypicals are in charge as usual.

YANBU. The WHO are wrong but you and that website you read are certainly right. You know better than the experts, of course.

batshitlady, I understand the point of your thread, I think - you're expressing confusion because the information is currently confused.

people - in the press and on here - are quoting lots of figures, but they often aren't the full information. In part that is because the full information isn't yet available. Thus the confusion.

On Jeremy Vine (radio 2 so it must be true!) they answered two of the points mentioned above. So to clarify, assuming that information is accurate:

The circa 4,000 figure is suspected microcephaly cases. A few hundred have been confirmed. That doesn't mean the others will be confirmed or that they won't be confirmed. What it does mean is that even if only those few hundred were confirmed, there is still a huge rise. We have to wait and see for the actual scale.

Re the people being discussed on here who are affected but differently, according to the same R2 programme, 10% of babies born with microcephaly will have small heads but normal sized brains. 90% will also have a smaller than normal brain.

I think there must be an underlying press release from either the Brazilian authorities or the WHO (or possibly CDC) as the BBC has an article with the same figures. But what it says is: "Brazil had fewer than 150 cases of microcephaly in the whole of 2014, but more than 4,000 cases have been reported since 22 October 2015 - and almost 3,500 of those are still being investigated."

And "suspected cases 3448, confirmed cases 270"

Those 3448 have not been dismissed as meaningless.

I think it needs to be taken seriously. Yes they are being cautious about stating 100% caused by Zika, but I can understand why, more research is needed.

Someone told me there is also whispers that the MOD want to pull out of its jungle training in south America due to the impact it may have on the young men and their families, should one come home and transmit zika to their partner.

From the summary of the WHO Emergency meeting:

I convened an Emergency Committee, under the International Health Regulations, to gather advice on the severity of the health threat associated with the continuing spread of Zika virus disease in Latin America and the Caribbean. The Committee met today by teleconference.

In assessing the level of threat, the 18 experts and advisers looked in particular at the strong association, in time and place, between infection with the Zika virus and a rise in detected cases of congenital malformations and neurological complications.

The experts agreed that a causal relationship between Zika infection during pregnancy and microcephaly is strongly suspected, though not yet scientifically proven. All agreed on the urgent need to coordinate international efforts to investigate and understand this relationship better.

The experts also considered patterns of recent spread and the broad geographical distribution of mosquito species that can transmit the virus.

The lack of vaccines and rapid and reliable diagnostic tests, and the absence of population immunity in newly affected countries were cited as further causes for concern.

After a review of the evidence, the Committee advised that the recent cluster of microcephaly cases and other neurological disorders reported in Brazil, following a similar cluster in French Polynesia in 2014, constitutes an “extraordinary event” and a public health threat to other parts of the world.

In their view, a coordinated international response is needed to minimize the threat in affected countries and reduce the risk of further international spread.

Members of the Committee agreed that the situation meets the conditions for a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.

I have accepted this advice.

I am now declaring that the recent cluster of microcephaly cases and other neurological disorders reported in Brazil, following a similar cluster in French Polynesia in 2014, constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.

A coordinated international response is needed to improve surveillance, the detection of infections, congenital malformations, and neurological complications, to intensify the control of mosquito populations, and to expedite the development of diagnostic tests and vaccines to protect people at risk, especially during pregnancy.

The Committee found no public health justification for restrictions on travel or trade to prevent the spread of Zika virus.

At present, the most important protective measures are the control of mosquito populations and the prevention of mosquito bites in at-risk individuals, especially pregnant women.

Exactly Purple But 'strongly suspected' means that them stating Zika as the cause of microcephaly, is premature. And they just don’t know how many cases of microcephaly there are.

I don't understand what point you're trying to make. The link is "strongly suspected" bug has not reached the level of proof yet. Would you have the governments wait to act until it is certain? How many more babies with microcephaly would you like to see being born before something should be done to minimise the risk?

I strongly suspect you have a Batshit theory about where the extra cases of microcephaly are coming from.

Vertigo
I would normally agree with the concept that a baby with disabilities is entitled to life every bit as much as someone else and should be welcomed and cherished. However, in this context, your view sounds bizarre, lacking in empathy and ill-informed.

Regardless of what it makes you personally feel about your own life, this condition is heartbreaking and involves great suffering. For the child family involved, it would be a life changing and life limiting tragedy (i.e., not quite the end of the world but close) if a healthy foetus became infected.

Of course people with disabilities have equal value; that doesn't mean we shouldn't call this a bloody mess.

I can't see any figures about microcephaly after 8th January though. If those figures have come from somewhere, I don't think it is the WHO.

That has 3,174 suspected cases including 38 deaths. Clustered mostly in the NE of the country where the zika outbreak is.

There's been a 20-40 fold increase in microcephalic births in Brazil
Most are clustered with high concentrations of the aedes mosquito
This coincides with appearance of zika in a previously unexposed population
Same thing happened in French Polynesia a while back.

So while the who haven't yet been able to confirm that Zika is the causative agent, they're sure enough of the association to issue their advice.

It's been present in Africa for a long time. It's usually a mild childhood disease there so kids get it, recover and then are immune by the time they reach child bearing age. It's now let loose in an immunologically naive population and it will rip through fast. In time it'll end up endemic and microcephaly rates will drop as kids get it and give the population a degree of immunity

Devastating for those living there before that state is reached though. And also for future tourism from non affected areas.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/uog.15831/abstract. This sounds concerning enough that I would not travel to the region if I was pregnant.

Vertigo With respect, this isn't about acceptance of people with disabilities. One could extend your argument to say that all research into genetic disabilities and birth defects should be stopped because its ok, we should accept people with disabilities. Of course we should but we should also be working to the point where everyone is born healthy and not born into suffering. Not by chosing who is born and who isn't but by preventing the conditions that cause such suffering in the first place.

Purple. No "theory"! Only a bit of independent enquiry and some questions.

Theoriginal I simply want us to have a polite and objective discussion on this issue. I was rather hoping that was obvious. No propositions or axes to grind on my part -- promise!

It's being said that this virus, which has been around for some 60 years, causing only mild illness, is now the cause of all these new cases of microcephaly. But there are 25,000 cases of microcephaly in the US every year. According to a source an evidence-based review I read.

fair point.

There will be lots of causes of microcephaly, most of them will be genetic, as in heritable. This is an example of a virus that affects the baby in utero - possibly by permantly disrupting genes or by interfering with gene expression at a vital part of development.

There are likely to be regional variation but what has happened now is a statistically significant rise in incidents of microcephaly
in specific regions. These are regions where zika virus is prevalent andzika virus is thought to be a causal agent. So we should take notice. As the information is gathered we will learn more about the virus and why we arenow seeing thisand why.

Are there more mosquitoes? has there been a mutation that makes it more virulent or is the mutation allowing thevirus to affect the child where before this wasn't happening.

The WHO are right to declare this a health emergency. its not about scare mongering its about calling for resources and raising awareness. This wont have been done lightly as it isnound to have a negative impacton the areas economies.

For me this could be as serious as the AIDS crisis and it makes me question ifmaybe the hiv virus was originally carried in an insecr vector. of course the sexual spread of this disease may not be significant.

Thatsmy take on it.

However, in this context, your view sounds bizarre, lacking in empathy and ill-informed

You toon the words right out of my mouth.

It's being said that this virus, which has been around for some 60 years, causing only mild illness, is now the cause of all these new cases of microcephaly. But there are 25,000 cases of microcephaly in the US every year

In the US, the usual definition of "microcephaly" is purely statistical ie head circumference more than two standard deviations below the mean. This means that (in theory) about 2% of infants will be "microcephalic" but does not necessarily mean they have a disability. Some people are just made small.

The cases in brazil appear to be rather severe cases and it may be that the definition of microcephaly used here is different (this would help explain the massive variations in incidence that are being reported).

The fact that the virus has been around for a long time in some areas without causing microcephaly isn't necessarily problematic. In areas where Zika is endemic most people will be exposed and acquire immunity long before they reach childbearing age.

There are many people suffering hearing loss, that doesnt mean that measles isnt one of the culprits.

The reason that the WHO have declared Zika a global emergency is so that research and development can be prioritised and fast-tracked. Not because the cause has been proven, but because we need some concrete facts asap.

YouGotta What are you talking about conspiracy theories for? If you are asking - 'how dare I seek answers other than those provided by the media'? I would like to remind you I'm at liberty to do what ever enquiry I like. Perhaps you should ask yourself -- why my doing that upsets you so much?

There are many people suffering hearing loss, that doesn't mean that measles isnt one of the culprits.

the virus doesn't appear to be there. Or at best it's unproven. And you can't say a virus causes a condition if the virus isn't there. It seem to me that all this is not yet proven scientifically. Very little is known. But in the mean time we're calling Zika an epidemic.

Mistigirl I don't want to cut and paste data but that doesn't concur with this www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19752457

batshitlady that page appears to be saying exactly what I said above; that US diagnoses of microencephaly are based on a statistical cut-off value, and that severe (head circumference more than 3 standard deviations below the mean) microencephaly is far more likely to be associated with clinical findings than milder cases.

I think you are confused.

mistigri I think she means your 2% figure-25,000 cases doesn't give an incidence of 2%. The incidence is far lower than that.