To hope there is a house price crash this year

[blondieblonde]

I really hope there is, so we can buy somewhere. What are the chances?

I bet if there is a house price crash the OP still wouldn't be able to afford a house because of the knock on effects.

Naïve.

The writing is on the wall
Btl landlord, the painful transition from favoured child to whipping boy

We debate this all the times on MN and some of us remember the 70s crash, neveer mind the 90s when we sold two flats for 50% less than we paid for them.

There are 60m people in the UK and 8m live in London. In the NE where I am from and as others are saying above prices have hardly recovered to the level they were before the credit crunch crash. The house mother lived in in the 1930s which they rented today costs £50k to buy in the NE.

30 years ago I worked with London law firm partners who could not afford to live in Central London and they commuted in from Brighton, Kent, Herts, Cambridge. Now none of those areas is cheap either but even today you can get a studio flat in Brighton for about £130k. My son was buying a 3 bed house in Aylesbury for about £200k. Here is one www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-52509049.html I accept it's not a cheap commute into London from there but not impossible.

Here is £190k 1 bed apartment Harrow (zone 5 on the tube) www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-56970227.html
If you have two x professional full time wages (people could not afford to work part time in my day of course although some think they have that right today) you could manage that in many cases.

It really is suzzane. Btl was always a massive tax loophole. Now that's closing.

Above commercial property, doesn't that make it very difficult to get a mortgage?

But they are all so beneficent, providing shelter for the needy, surely the powers that be can see that without btl landlords the fabric of society would disintegrate
Surely the government will continue to shower blessings on them for their saintly and tireless contributions to society

In my 10 year rental experience - the BTL landlords were some of the best to have. They treated it as a business so were professional.

Some of the worst were accidental landlords - ones who couldn't sell the property or one renting it out for elderly relative care homes. They didn't want to spend money on repairs - often didn't seem to grasp it was our home so access could be an issue - and as this was before protected deposit scheme - were ones to try charging for general ware and tear.

In area we lived with a glut of rental properties the rents were lower as well.

So while I do think it's a good thing to close the tax loop holes - I do wonder if it's such a great thing for the rental sector or if it's going to cause problem there.

But they are all so beneficent, providing shelter for the needy, surely the powers that be can see that without btl landlords the fabric of society would disintegrate

not that far - but will it affect the number of properties for rent and rental prices?

Long term I do think there will be more and more properties rented out to cover care home costs - but in short to medium term - it's not like there is really social housing option for most people in most parts of the uk - so who will be in the private rental market?

Lightningirl: We have two rental properties,one commmercial and the changes haven't affected us at all

Dyslexic: Do you actually understand the changes? Or is that just incorrect grammar? They don't come in fully until 2021.

Dyslexic, Lightning is not affected because she's not a 40% tax payer, and her commercial property is not subject to the changes. I think you would serve yourself better to think about the issues rather than have knee-jerk emotional responses, however understandable they might be.

The only people who will benefit from a cash will be cash buyers/those with very substantial deposits relative to the mortgage they need

The point about btl is that they were borrowing to invest
(Hmrc considers landlords to be investors)
Leveraging to ramp up profits
The flip side is that losses are similarly amplified
They have inflated to bubble that could bankrupt many of them when the implications of the tax changes become clear
Way to go btlers

not happening. UK population going up, amount of space staying the same, many houses being built are big fourbedsixbath jobs on tiny plots - and they get bought so clearly someone has money. Apparently an 'affordable' house is anything up to 350k!!!

Gelfof-ideas of 'just build more, plenty of land' are stupid - food doesn't come from Waitrose and you may have noticed a bit of flooding recently. But still new houses are built on flood plains while usable older stock sits empty.

while it is easy to spew bile at landlords, the 'buy-to-leave' lot (easy to outlaw) are a tiny part of the problem.

supply and demand. Sorry.

I have lived through a major house price crash 23 years ago. It is good for the market.

And the issue is that more and more people are living alone in houses. There is more stock than there used to be, but much more people living alone or in couples in 3 and 4 bedroomed houses.

A crash will happen when interest rates return to normal levels. I am that that the government is doing what it can to soften the crash by removing mortgage relief for buy to let landlords who are higher tax payers. I feel that long term they need to remove all mortgage relief for buy to let landlords. I also think its right buy to let landlords or second home ownsers pay more stamp duty. Slowing the buy to let market will help first time buyers.

We need a slow down rather than full blown crash. I would like people who are faced with repocession to have the option of selling to the council. Obviously there would still be the negative equity, but at least a family would have a roof over their heads. At the moment councils cannot take advantage of knock down prices when repocessions happen. They family could rent back their home from the council and claim housing benefit if necessary. Obviously they would have to pay the bedroom tax if the family home is bigger than they need.

Where's the OP

These threads generally go the same way. Those that have a house don't want a crash those that don't do.

I think wages need to start increasing. I work in a multinational company in HR and the difference in salary for our UK employees Vs other western world countries is pretty staggering tbh.

Would be good if they stabilised, but a crash wont help many people

Felloutofbed, I did say that properties in London are available in areas that people might not neccisarily consider because it doesn't meet their tick box list.

So areas like Colindale, Harlesden, Harrow, Hatch End, Wembley (just listing cause they're near me) all of which are on tube lines and have 2 bed flats for between £200,000 and £300,000. Ok that's expensive in comparison to outside of London but a couple earning London average wages should be able to make it. You can even get help to buy, 5% deposits etc, 5% of 250,000 is £12,500 people should be able to save that kind of cash!

Like most people who bought in London way back when, we made compromises, I'd have wanted to stay in Maida Vale or move to Notting Hill when we bought, but I knew we couldn't afford a place to meet our basic space needs so made compromises.

In my 10 year rental experience - the BTL landlords were some of the best to have. They treated it as a business so were professional.

Some of the worst were accidental landlords - ones who couldn't sell the property or one renting it out for elderly relative care homes. They didn't want to spend money on repairs - often didn't seem to grasp it was our home so access could be an issue - and as this was before protected deposit scheme - were ones to try charging for general ware and tear.

I agree, the smalltime and accidental landlords were the pits, they seemed to regard any rent paid as pure profit and resented paying for repairs or maintanceIn my 10 year rental experience - the BTL landlords were some of the best to have. They treated it as a business so were professional.

Some of the worst were accidental landlords - ones who couldn't sell the property or one renting it out for elderly relative care homes. They didn't want to spend money on repairs - often didn't seem to grasp it was our home so access could be an issue - and as this was before protected deposit scheme - were ones to try charging for general ware and tear.

I agree also about boundary issues. They had trouble understanding It was our home not theirs, meaning that it isn't on to just let yourself into the flat to check if there was any post when you thought we'd be at work rather than giving proper notice.

A slow correction would seem to be the best option
no one has a crystal ball
Anything could happen

But cleaty, that house price crash was tied to an incredibly deep recession which harmed almost everyone and, with interest rates at about 15%, meant that very few people could afford to buy even properties that had lost 50-60% of their value. It was a nightmare and caused untold misery for hundreds of thousands of people - I just remember boarded-up shops, the highest repossession rate that the country had ever known, soaring unemployment and a feeling of gloom that took years to shift.

Good for the market... was it?

House prices corrected did they?

No, didn't think so!

YANBU!

Even a slight dip that lasted several months...any chance to be able to get a mortgage & try to buy a tiny property in SE London!

That house price crash clearly benefited no one except those with cash to buy, that is all that will benefit from an oncoming crash.

People imagine that they will be immune from a crash, ceretis paribus, it doesn't work like that. If you wipe 20% off the value of bank's mortgage books, and off people's houses you will find that there will be misery for millions.

Hoping for a house price crash shows a total misunderstanding of how economics works.

How do you see that working?

Everyone agrees to write hundreds of thousands off their property price, thus ensuring they can't move on, then, once you have bagged a bargain, you can put the price back up - reserving the right to make a profit for yourself?

Yeah, I'll sign up for that!