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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To hope there is a house price crash this year

347 replies

blondieblonde · 10/01/2016 21:18

I really hope there is, so we can buy somewhere. What are the chances?

OP posts:
Babycham1979 · 14/01/2016 12:36

Or, lexlees, we see a long period of stagnation, combined with high inflation so that, ultimately, fiscal drag obliterates the value of the pound, and a loaf of bread costs £50.

That is the only way the current crisis can be resolved with a 'soft-landing', but the current establishment will do everything in their power to sustain the current rates of house price growth and private borrowing to hide the parlous state of the real economy.

suzannecaravaggio · 14/01/2016 12:58

*current establishment will do everything in their power to sustain the current rates of house price growth and private borrowing"
Changes on stamp duty for second homes and reduction of tax relief on interest for landlords should help to calm house price inflation
Surely this is constitutes overt recognition from the govt that buy to let lending has had a detrimental effect on the economy and society which needs to be addressed?

suzannecaravaggio · 14/01/2016 12:59

current establishment will do everything in their power to sustain the current rates of house price growth and private borrowing

Changes on stamp duty for second homes and reduction of tax relief on interest for landlords should help to calm house price inflation.

Surely this is constitutes overt recognition from the govt that buy to let lending has had a detrimental effect on the economy and society which needs to be addressed?

Owllady · 14/01/2016 13:24

People moving out of London to commute is pushing up house prices elsewhere too though longtime.
Certainly happens here

LentilStew · 14/01/2016 13:56

Lots of people who live in London and the SE really don't have to. Yes, I know that dome jobs only exist in London but that doesn't tally with the amount of people who live there. Just before Christmas we visited friends in StAlbans. They had another couple over who were complaining that they simply couldn't afford to buy. How awful it all was etc. But he is a plasterer and she does sales ledger in an office. They could do that anywhere in the country. But because they have both grown up in StAlbans they cannot comprehend ever living anywhere else as they freely told me. I find that incomprehensible.

Catphrase · 14/01/2016 14:04

owlady your spot on, it's happened where I am. Houses going for £100,000 over the asking price!!!
It's a knock on, the locals move to the next town which pushes that up so those locals move onto the next town pushing that up.

Owllady · 14/01/2016 14:06

Lentilstew, taking away the emotional cost of moving away from family and support, what problems does it create if all these people on lower (or even middle) wages move out of these areas?

Surely you know?

Say I lived 20 minutes from st Albans. It wouldn't even be worth me taking an office admin job there, presumably lots of people are the same? So what kind of problems do you envisaged that will eventually cause, if it isn't already?

Not a problem unique to st Albans obviously.

Owllady · 14/01/2016 14:11

Yes, catphrase that's what happens here! Dominoes

redstrawberry10 · 14/01/2016 14:46

So what kind of problems do you envisaged that will eventually cause, if it isn't already?

so what problems are there (not including the social costs)?

DeoGratias · 14/01/2016 14:52

Radio 4 interviewed some people this week who are finding it hard to move staff to the SE where work is; one sales manager was operating from Nottingham as could not afford to move his family down; another had moved his family down but it was tough to afford rent. 30 years ago my ex husband's school could only find teachers if it put them up in school flats - which is where we started married life as the so called London weighting even 30 years ago no way reflected the difference in house prices between north and sough.

However everything currently points to the SE doing better and better despite things like BBC moving to Salford and supposed Northern Powerhouse - the educational figures are amazing and differ from when I was a child in the NE. My brother's children go to the academically best private school in his area of the North and that school's results are only the same as my sons' by no means best academic school in London. Why would Yorkshire children not be as bright even in private schools? Presumably because those who are bright move to London or are harder working immigrants although there are many immigrants in areas around Leeds, Dewsbury, Bradford... may be it depends on the immigrants - rural pakistani farmer against hindu from African who was highly educated and in business both now in England. All interesting stuff.

My advice remains buy when you can and what you can.

(I won't continue the debate about the better off of us paying more tax and a ahigher % than ever in history but we all know I'm right - we are talking about amounts paid, not ath Janice on £14k a year pays x% tax

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2015/04/george-osborne-has-squeezed-more-from-the-rich-than-any-uk-chancellor-ever/

and
" The highest paid 3,000 people in the UK pay more income tax than the bottom nine million, according to official Government statistics.

The figures show that the very highest earners - amounting to just under 3,000 people with a declared income above £2.7 million - will contribute 4.2 per cent of the total Government revenue from income tax in the current financial year.

By contrast, Britain’s nine million poorest paid workers contribute less than four per cent of the total income tax receipt.

In all, 29.9 million people pay income tax in the UK. According to the new figures released by HM revenue & Customs (HMRC), almost one-third of income tax payers contribute less to the Exchequer than the top 3,000 earners - equivalent to 0.01 per cent of the total.

The figures were disclosed in a Freedom of Information (FoI) request to the journalist Fraser Nelson as part of his investigation into growing wealth inequality in Britain. His findings will be broadcast in Channel 4’s investigations programme Dispatches, entitled How The Rich Get Richer, which is shown tomorrow [Monday].

Mr Nelson, editor of The Spectator magazine, said yesterday that the new figures ‘blow apart’ Ed Miliband’s claim last week that Britain had become a ‘zero zero’ country where the richest pay zero tax and the poorest work on ‘zero hours’ contracts.

“In the last tax year, the richest were shouldering a greater share of the burden than any time in history,” said Mr Nelson. “And this was achieved after the top rate of income tax was reduced from 50p to 45p in April 2013.

“It is now harder than ever for Ed Miliband to justify bringing back the 50p tax. Indeed, now that the richest pay such a great share of income tax, the British government is financially reliant on a small number of highly mobile super-taxpayers.” )

kinkytoes · 14/01/2016 14:57

Of course there is a housing ladder. My dp and I are on it now. After a good six years of saving we bought our first house (we had no children - we wanted to wait till we were in our own house first) - saving is easy if you both work full time and you forget having a social life and foreign holidays. (we enjoy staying in and watching films luckily).

Fast forward five years, we've done up the house and increased its value (more than if we hadn't done it up) and sold it easily now we're moving to a nicer area and bigger house. Hopefully we'll be happy there long term but if not we'll move again after making this one nice. We are ambitious but we also want to be settled.

It's possible but you have to be willing to put the hard graft in. And yes I'd work two jobs if I had to to make it happen, if I wanted it badly enough. Too many people are used to having everything on credit these days. Instant gratification. Saving for something like a deposit (and shock horror - having to WAIT for something) is really out of the ordinary. I could understand the problem if you had to save for the whole cost of the house!

kinkytoes · 14/01/2016 14:59

I should add - we were renting while we saved. Not living with parents.

LentilStew · 14/01/2016 15:15

What problems are you talking about specifically? Places like St Albsns have no shortage of buyers able to afford the houses. And there are plenty of companies who are SE based who don't need to be there either. If the workforce they need isn't in StA but is in, eg, Bedford or Petersborough then that's where they locate to. Many do do this, of course. We have moved up and down the country and to another country and back with DH's job. You go where the work is taking into account affordability and how it's suited to your family, not tie yourself to an expensive area because you grew up there especially when you can't actually afford to live there.

Owllady · 14/01/2016 15:18

It creates issues to do with lower/middle income workforces not being able to afford to live in these places but not even able to afford to commute to their jobs or possible jobs in those areas too.

There was a bbc article regarding this exact problem in Oxford. But I can't cut and paste on this kindle (for some unknown reason) We are actually directly affected by this because we need care for one of our children, but there is no one to fill the positions. The agency is paid well by the local authority by the way.

Owllady · 14/01/2016 15:22

We've moved about too lentilstew, but that still doesn't take into account businesses in st Albans still need people to work for them. It doesn't exist in a vacuum.

LentilStew · 14/01/2016 15:22

Deo, it's not strictly true that if you're clever you relocate to the South. We're in the NW in an area well known for its affluence. I'm a hop and a skip from one of the top performing independent girls schools in the country. Trafford borough has state secondaries in the top 10 in the country. Family homes upwards of 500k. Most of my good friends and other school parents have lived I various parts of the country including London and the SE at some point then settled here.

LentilStew · 14/01/2016 15:24

Yes but if they're struggling to attract the type of workers they need then STA isn't the place to be. Market economics at its most basic.

Owllady · 14/01/2016 15:29

I suppose that's true of some businesses but presumably people still want to shop there, catch the bus, train, have cleaners, care, nurses, teachers etc

Figmentofmyimagination · 14/01/2016 15:31

Well, to quote from the ONS, "dwellings" accounted for 63% (cough) of the uk's total net worth at the end of 2014. Dwellings increased in value by £408 billion (9%) over 2013-2014'.

Obviously things have worsened since then (or 'improved' depending on your point of view, judging by some of the enthusiastic postings on this thread). Wages, by contrast, are flat lining, and job security has all but disappeared.

If anyone thinks this is sustainable they must be living on a different planet.

lostInTheWash · 14/01/2016 15:36

Yes but if they're struggling to attract the type of workers they need then STA isn't the place to be. Market economics at its most basic.

What about teachers or NHS workers? They are needed everywhere but there seem to be so many places now that the majority would be priced out of.

Some times business are in particular locations due to resources or because they connect up with other businesses they may not be able to move - though offering more pay would possibly be an answer so their work force can afford the cost of living.

LentilStew · 14/01/2016 16:01

Well the could move to eg Hatfield which would allow them to commute a fairly short distance to StA but no, they don't like it, it's ugly etc. So they'd rather rent and complain because they cannot buy where they want to be.

LentilStew · 14/01/2016 16:03

Lostin, 2 teachers of combined salary of 70k could afford lots of areas in the SE. Not the most desirable but certainly somewhere.

lostInTheWash · 14/01/2016 16:12

I should hope so LentilStew.

However not everyone has two wages coming in - or wants to be dependent on two wages which do mean a limit on the pool of available workers.

Problem is if prices continue without some sort of correction you'll get to the point where they can't.

At that point you do have problems - though increasing wages or offering subsided housing are possibly ways round that or having people teach who are less qualified than now.

lostInTheWash · 14/01/2016 16:16

Lowering qualifications would meaning more people who could potentially fill the post than currently.

DeoGratias · 14/01/2016 16:20

More fool them if they are both not prepared to work full time of course... that is the thing - we make choices with consequences. My grandfather did not have my father until he was 50 as he had to wait until he could afford it. My parents were married for 10 years with my teacher mother supporting my student father because they could not afford children until then and had bought a house etc etc.

There are more changes by the state to the property market than I can remember at present with the new Bill which prohibits evicting a tenant because they complained about the state of the place to the tax relief on landlords and the new extra 3% stamp duty on buy to lets so it is quite hrad to say the state is not trying to deal with the issue of high house prices and rents in the SE.

We do ask my son how his postal colleagues (he's a post man in the SE) cope. They seem to have managed to buy with two full time wages coming in. One teacher of my son drives from Oxford to here (outer London zone 5) every day. Another was taking the tube from Barbican where he has a flat. A lot of people live with parents as is culturally the norm and rather nice in the very mixed borough in which I live. There are plenty of ways to skin a cat.