To hope there is a house price crash this year

[blondieblonde]

I really hope there is, so we can buy somewhere. What are the chances?

The house prices here have gone silly and I've noticed businesses are really struggling to get people to fill lower paid positions.

I don't think anyone wants or wishes people to lose their homes, but I do think house prices have to stabilise somewhere. There needs to be better restrictions and standards of rental housing and there also needs to better control over people buying up property and leaving it empty. I'm no financial or political whizz :o but surely it would be difficult to put measures in place to at least control that?

There is lots of house building going on here but no one who lives here on local wages can afford the 3 bed rabbit hutches they are building :(

It wouldn't be difficult! Not it would

Allegedly there is a world recession every 8 years I saw it on the news this week. I had never heard that before. Perhaps it will apply here then as we are due one in that case!

The current set-up represents a massive transfer of wealth from the young to the old and from labour to capital. The majority of the Nation's 'wealth' is tied-up in property, which the young can't access, almost regardless of income.

Lots of people on MN are clearly looking forward to a windfall via inheritance, but I suspect many will have a nasty surprise due to the perfect storm of diminished pensions, care home fees and another likely economic shit-storm.

As I've mentioned on another thread, this transfer of wealth will only happen once, as many, many people are forgoing savings or pensions due to an anticipated inheritance. Who knows what their children will have to rely on.

As I've mentioned on another thread, this transfer of wealth will only happen once, as many, many people are forgoing savings or pensions due to an anticipated inheritance. Who knows what their children will have to rely on.

why save when interest rates are so low? The rational thing to do is take on debt.

This isn't going to end well I think.

The transfer of wealth point is really valid, there is also a massive transfer of wealth going on from the poor to the rich.

Interest rates btw are not going to rise for a while, and will go no where near there previous levels for an age, I can't foresee them ever going back to mid nighties levels.

Thing is, if there is a crash, you can expect another major round of QE again inflating the bubble, you can also expect interest rates to remain low.

@longtime

I agree re: interest rates and QE. But at some point this economy based on bubbles and house prices is going to deflate.

To add to the smoke and mirrors, the bastards keep playing with the inflation metrics too. We used to use RPI (retail prices, plus housing - very sensible); then RPIX (retails prices, but not housing - why the fuck not?); and now, CPI (consumer prices, including deflationary luxuries like electronics, but excluding housing!).

Predictably, pensions, pay-rises etc are hitched to CIP (if you're lucky enough to be index-linked). The end result is that we are increasingly seeing a disparity between income and the cost of living, and the bastards are deliberately obsuring this fact!

As Marx observed; labour versus capital. After half a century of improving rights and conditions for working people, the balance is tipping in the other direction.

As you say, Lurker, this won't end well. People in this country are complacent, but there's no reason why this won't lead to civil conflict between the generations; between ethnic groups; and between the haves and have nots.

@longtimelurker101, we are already deep in a period of long-term stagflation. The only difference between us and Japan is that immigration has allowed our Government to hide the reality of 0% economic growth.

The Government is interfering in the lending market and has imposed tough new borrowing criteria on banks and even now buy to let lenders to make it harder for everyone to get loans.

I don't think anyone buying in a SE big City like London, Cambridge, Oxford is giong to make a bad long term investment whenever they buy - we have booms and busts all the time and people tend to need homes where there are jobs.

In terms of the UK economy we are heading for and have reached to an extent a very good position in the SE anyway. More people are in work. London is booming. I don't think there is any sign of a recession about to crash down on London at all. I would certainly encourage people to buy somewhere now if they can afford it. The old saying - he who hesitates is lost probably applies here. I remember my brother waiting years after selling his flat for prices to crash so he could buy again and that crash didn't ever happen. You may get lucky and buy in the depths of the 70s or 90s etc property crashes - we bought in 97 here and had sold buy to lets at 50% loss just before that - but it is hard to predict the market. The best advice for your children is buy as early as you can and buy before you breed given the new lending criteria. If you are in a career rather than a minimum wage job also borrow as much as you can as your pay will get higher as you continue your full time job.

Never in British history have those of us who earn the most paid a higher percentage of the nation's tax. There is a massive transfer of wealth from rich to poor currently going on. It has to stop or we will cease to be incentivised to work hard.

As for whether there is a once in a life time situation of parents giving to children - I think that's always happened amongst the few parents with anything to leave. Most parents have never really had much at all. My father spent his life savings on day and night dementia care at home and died just as they were exhausted. Most of us don't live life expecting an inheritance.

There is a massive transfer of wealth from rich to poor currently going on. It has to stop or we will cease to be incentivised to work hard

Words fail me

@suzanne words dont fail me. Pahahahahahahahahahahahaha to the massive transfer of wealth from rich to poor. Pahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. Do you have statistics to back that big pile of steaming shit lies? There is certainly tonnes of data to prove the opposite i.e. the rich are getting richer and the poor poorer.

I think this has to be most ludicrous thing I have ever heard on Mumsnet. Ever.

"Never in British history have those of us who earn the most paid a higher percentage of the nation's tax"

Yet at historically low tax rates, also the top 1% pay 29% of the income tax take, the lowest paid pay 33%.

I wouldn't say that for all the benefits the top rate payers get that they are getting a bad deal.

"There is a massive transfer of wealth from rich to poor currently going on. It has to stop or we will cease to be incentivised to work hard"

Really....

Buy to let is a good example where the rich can earn money from the poor for doing very little.

Advantage begets advantage in life. Children from low income families often find it hard to access good quality schooling. The wealthy middle classes hog the best state schools. The professional elite are able to pick the best private schools.

Social mobility is at an all time low...

Suzanne - I almost always agree with you, but not sure why you dont agree with that statement?

IMO the young are being saddled with excessive house price and country debt that the older generation are paying for.

I for one have quit work to take it easy as I'm becoming increasingly annoyed with what my taxes are going towards. Namely benefits that won't exist when I'm that age.

Oh I read it the wrong way around, transfer of wealth from poor to rich

Oh I read it the wrong way around, transfer of wealth from poor to rich blush

Consider yourself totally vindicated
xenia deogratis is trying to tell us that back is white, no wonder you read it wrong!!

If there was a housing crash, then you still wouldn't get to buy a house as everybody would gazup you to it as there are not enough houses to go around in some areas.

You could though buy a house here m.zoopla.co.uk/house-prices/burnley/angle-street/

House is worth £38k

Thing is unemployment is higher than average, above average 0 hours contracts and average wage is very low, standard of living is very different from other areas if the country

Never in British history have those of us who earn the most paid a higher percentage of the nation's tax. There is a massive transfer of wealth from rich to poor currently going on. It has to stop or we will cease to be incentivised to work hard.

I'm sorry, but this is fatuous nonsense. Top-rate income tax is at histroically low levels (for the modern era), and the tax regime is deliberately designed to allow high earners to legally ensure they pay proportionally less than their cleaners.

I'm yet to meet a high earner who sacrifices anything but a nominal element of their income via PAYE. Share options, offshore trusts, 'loans' and similar scams are absolutely standard among genuine high earners (and I'm not talking about company directors on £150k).

God forbid that the wealthy few should be disincentivised from growing their portfolios
After all they are worth it
And wealth inequality is such a positive thing for society

What fun you must have Xenia, winding up the serfs on mumsnet

Dyslexic,

I'm inclined to say that Mark and Suzie are idiots, because if they had £350k to spend in that area, and wanted to start a family imminently, they could have bought any of these instead:
www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/39135352?search_identifier=ca50334bd956ef499cc50e63d601c504#hykQfGUxavYk6W2X.97
www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/39116411?search_identifier=ca50334bd956ef499cc50e63d601c504#je4Q2vQkMLjXL4Z6.97
www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/39113217?search_identifier=ca50334bd956ef499cc50e63d601c504#WvzHVEM0eFP1QJ4P.97
www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/37252863?search_identifier=ca50334bd956ef499cc50e63d601c504#vOuJ4U0uA1vTP3wT.97

www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/household-income/the-effects-of-taxes-and-benefits-on-household-income/50-years-of-the-effects-of-taxes-and-benefits-analysis/sty-taxes-and-benefits-on-household-income.html

Take a look at this which shows income tax rates in 1974 at a whopping 83%

I knew the 70s were bad but had forgotten how high income tax thresholds were - fancy giving 83 pence over of every pound you earn..?

The only way I can see house prices crashes is if there something that causes a huge oversupply of houses vs demand:

-a huge epidemic/plague that kills off so many people that there are just a lot less buyers (of course the whole country would go down the pan),

-martial law that states anyone not British must leave the country and the houses will be sold off for peanuts (yay - we can all live in Belgravia/Mayfair)

-stock market/bank/insurance/pension obliteration (not just a crash) - but then you might not have the cash to buy because it is in the bank that went bust!

-the north pole shifting suddenly to Leicester (I picked that randomly),

-war against UK with a 'Blitz',

-an active volcano appearing in the Thames

Since none of these are likely to happen - I can't see how prices can crash to affordable levels - it would take a 50% reduction for homes to be affordable. Even in 2008 they didn't drop so much - around 15-16%.

The only other option is for wages/salaries to triple/quadruple which is just as unlikely.

I've said before Sparechange that people who say there is no property available to them in London are a bit unwilling to compromise, as EVERYONE else has had to do at some point to get property in London.