The property market looks like its going to collapse and that's a good thing

[Ellreejeee]

Surely this madness is going to end soon and it will benefit the country?

Shed for sale in Somerset in someone back garden for 150k. Look at the pictures www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-37137567.html

London is insane, most overvalued many are saying www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34676643

The average london house has earnt 2 pounds an hour for the last decade. And that's tax free if its your own home!

I wasn't suggesting the whole of London outside Zone 2 was unsafe ,sparechange. My DD has lived in Peckham for two years and often walks/cycles alone from the station late at night. She is, hopefully, buying in Lewisham (she can't afford Peckham) . All I meant was you have to be careful in some areas of London (as you would in any big city). And it is more difficult, in many respects, if you are not married/partnered .

I live in Leyton my house has doubled to £550k in the 4 years since I've bought it. We bought it on our average salaries but we couldn't afford it now. It's virtually impossible to buy anywhere in London on average salary now the goalposts have moved so dramatically

It's always been hard to buy in areas which are booming (London now) and not in areas no one wants to live in and where there are no jobs or long commutes. However I am not suggesting it is easy now of course even with the very low interest rates.

30 years ago partners I worked with commuted into London from Brighton, Kent and Cambridge to name but 3 presumably because they couldn't afford to buy in London itself and that's partners in law firms.

I don't see it collapsing whilst interest rates remain so low, but London peaked last summer ie 2014 in the main areas, although some buyers remain aspirational. If you go on the main property websites, such as rightmove, there are a lot of properties showing price reductions which just wasn't the case 15 months ago.

Beyond London, it is obviously an entirely different picture with some areas no even back to 2007 levels such as the north east so I wouldn't expect there to be any further falls.

However, I do see a lot of young and talented people leaving London because they can't afford to buy or rent here. It might be fine to have a bedsit in a cramped house for a few years when you are a young professional learning your craft or trade, and fun to be in London and enjoy the vibrant nightlife and everything else on offer. But the gloss wears off and people want decent affordable homes, so are likely to migrate to other cities where it is still possible to own a home and have a life (ie the house doesn't squeeze every last drop of lifeblood/money from you).

There was quite a moving article in the Evening Standard a few days ago, where the author mourned the London she had known, but said that she had reluctantly decided to leave for these reasons. She saw London as losing so many young and talented people that it would completely change its identity within a few decades. The only people likely to be able to afford to buy in the prime areas would be bankers and oligarchs.

We already see parts of Mayfair and Chelsea becoming ghost towns because large slabs have been bought up by overseas investors who seldom occupy them. I don't think there is anything you can do about this in a free market, but I do find it quite depressing.

We bought in London last year and were able to buy in zone 2, but only because we compromised a lot on the area and type of property. I feel safe here but I grew up in London so I'm quite streetwise, I've heard lots of negative things about it and many people wouldn't want to live here. My commute is 35 min and DH's is 40 mins (reducing to 25 min next year). We have above average salaries and have been saving for over ten years towards it (in our early 30s and saving all disposable income since graduation, living in shared flats the whole time, doing without small luxuries like expensive phones and takeaway coffee) as we had no help from parents or inheritances. Most colleagues my age on similar incomes (which is very good) can't buy because they have only started saving in recent years, and/or don't have a partner to buy with, although a few of them have managed to buy but usually not so central.

"I get annoyed when I see on these threads that if only people didn't have mobile phones or Sky TV then they could afford to buy."

But that's not what's been said if you read it properly. People have been complaining about how hard younger buyers have it nowadays compared to the perceived "good old days" of our parents'/grandparents' era. It was just pointed out that they didn't have it that good, because the standards of living and expectations were much lower then, and all the things we now take for granted (like mobile phones and Sky TV) weren't around. Social lives were in general much more dull than today (hence my tongue-in-cheek Scrabble comment) and scrimping and saving very common - forget going out for breakfast, or grabbing a Starbucks on the way to work or drinks in a trendy bar on the way home.

I see a lot more fancy resraurants, coffee bars and people wearing branded clothes, lots of gadgets, much better/fancier cars than when I was young in the 70s

People want nice things NOW and not scrimp and save for better things later

The spending culture has changed.

What I mildly resent on this thread is people saying 'we bought 20 years ago in not so nice areas which were more affordable, i.e. Maida Vale'. People now should do the same, suck up and buy in a not nice area.

I would happily buy in a not as nice area...but those areas (for my situation specifically) it means buying somewhere with over an hour commute to work. Which, when you have a young family just feels brutal. The areas that we can afford to buy gets further and further from the areas that we work.

I highlight that this is for my specific situation, because a million people will come on and say 'why not buy in X, it's really easy to get in.'

There are no more cheap but not so nice areas in Lom
Neon any more, only not so nice areas. Even the crap dodgy places are expensive now. It's been that way for about 15 years.

London. Have no idea where Lom Neon is.

leave - what is "cheap", though? £100k? £200k?

I'm happy to add another story about buying in a crap dodgy place years ago and watching it get less crap and dodgy, but you probably got the gist from PP.

A friend just bought her first home for £150k in London (near Newbury Park station - zone 4) which was the cheapest area she could find. She viewed some flats in Croydon as well which were priced similarly. Not 'cheap' but within reach of a couple on an average London wage.

I see the OP hasn't been back since pretty much the start of this thread.

Why start a thread if you have no intention of engaging with the views and opinions of the other posters?

A big crash in house prices will mean people in negative equity and people losing their homes - how is that good for the economy?

vom, 30 years ago we bought in outer London though and I did indeed have an hour commute each way. You just tolerated it as the price you had to pay . Yes, life is hard. It's always been. It's a veil of tears at times but you just have to make the best of it. It was not a piece of cake 30 years ago when only 15% went to university. It was tough then and it's tough now.

clam It was just pointed out that they didn't have it that good, because the standards of living and expectations were much lower then, and all the things we now take for granted (like mobile phones and Sky TV) weren't around. Social lives were in general much more dull than today (hence my tongue-in-cheek Scrabble comment) and scrimping and saving very common

I don't think that's entirely accurate. Many essential consumer goods are a lot more affordable now - washing machines, tvs, even decent second hand cars. Non essential luxuries are also more affordable - computers, foreign holidays - I was just thinking about how when I'd just graduated, I couldn't afford to buy a small printer for job applications outright, and had to buy it on a credit agreement over 3 years. I found the receipt recently, and that basic printer 15 years ago cost more than I would pay for a better printer today!

I also think achievable material goods and small luxuries are good motivating factors, and drive economic growth.

One thing I do notice getting worse is the expectation that houses should all be of the standard and minimum bedroom size of new build estates. I'd love to see some proper anthropological research into the negative effect of government policies that basically restrict new build to mass developments.

I know loads of people who have a 1 hour ish commute into central London, some on a mixture of bus then tube. Its hardly unusual - you surely would have to very precious to think its too much! I often meet friends who have already been in and out of central London for work during the day and then we are back in again at night. Personally, I'm thinking of moving to Epping - anyone experience of?

Certainly some consumer goods are cheaper. When we bought just about everyone took their carpets and curtains with them when they moved and all the kitchen stuff. We had my children's father's grandmother's old stand alone gas cooker.

I thought there were quite a lot of small builder schemes rather than all new house buildilng being Barrett type? I don't support Government help for first time buyers only going to new build property although I can see why the state wants to encourage the income generation of the building industry and I'm glad the new buyer scheme is open to existing built houses.

Vulgar, an hour or more commute is the norm for many, many people and even from my zone 2 des res my commute is 50 minutes on a good day. Lots of people from outside London have large commutes every day too.

But your complaint that you can't buy anywhere that is over an hour is rubbish, just done a search for two bed flats in Colindale, there are a number on the market for under £250,000 and lots for under £300,000. I've done one for Kingsbury, Harrow etc all comes out with the same result, lots of available affordable flats.

Now two people on decent incomes should be able to get mortgages on this, with a 5% deposit. Thats 15k or 7.5 k each. Thats doable!

All of these places are less than an hour on the tube/train to central. Harrow takes 40 mins on the Met to get to Aldgate, but you can get the Chiltern line trane direct to Marylebone which takes 20.

But no, people don't want to live in Colindale,or Harrow,Kingsbury or all of these places that are slightly further out.

I think in people's heads they want "naice" victorian period houses, in naice areas, with short journey times to central. Well I wanted to live in Bloomsbury but guess what?

Far to many Londoners who whinge about not being able to get on the housing ladder are actually unwilling to compromise.

Consumer goods are now relatively cheaper. Housing and education are relatively more expensive. Whether things are better or worse depends on your tastes and what you value.

Scemersford, Epping is a nice place with a "market town" feel. Easy access to the M11 and M25. You are the end of the line, so likely to get a seat on the tube for your morning commute at least.

If it was me, I'd be more interested in scouting out a bargain in Ilford. When CrossRail is finished the commute into town will be very quick, and Ilford is cheap with some decent victorian properties that could look quite nice with a little "love." I think greater capital appreciation is more likely in Ilford. Ilford is more urban and ethnically mixed. Epping, meanwhile is just about all ethnically English. So, two very different vibes.

Arrgghhh longtime! Yes, some places are affordable, which is why I specified 'in my situation'. Grrr!

Right lets set a general location of Westminster as being central and do a journey time from there from each of the places that I've looked for tonight.

Colindale 47 minutes
Harrow on the Hill 43
Kingsbury 32 minutes.

That is not bad at all. Now I know people's commutes are a bit more complex but it undermines the time/affordability argument quite well.

Ok Vulgar your situation is different, which probably means that if you have very particlar needs then your going to pay a premium to get them all met.

Economics 101.

High birth rate
Aging population
Wealthy overseas people parking money in a stable economy
Low amount of new buildings being built
Net migration high
Limited appropriate spaces to build: flood plains; farmland; transport links; near places of work etc
I wish it would collapse, and I speak as someone who has done well from the madness. But our kids. What will they do? Am teaching her French so she has somewhere to go - only partly joking here.

Agree Kennington. I think you have it outlined succinctly.
DH and I are alright. I do wonder about the next generation though.

Kennington, good list.

I'd add that in London too many of the new builds are "luxury" apartments that cost too much for first time buyers.

We should be building far more 2/3 bed flats that tick all the basic boxes. People genuinely don't need jaccuzis, or gyms in the basement of the building, or concierge serices.