The property market looks like its going to collapse and that's a good thing

[Ellreejeee]

Surely this madness is going to end soon and it will benefit the country?

Shed for sale in Somerset in someone back garden for 150k. Look at the pictures www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-37137567.html

London is insane, most overvalued many are saying www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34676643

The average london house has earnt 2 pounds an hour for the last decade. And that's tax free if its your own home!

[Oliversmumsarmy]

You are buying the land not just the shed. Given the description I presume you get access from the road behind in which case you are looking at a plot for a pair of semis or a detached house.

[SchnitzelVonKrumm]

Also, are interest rates about to soar? No. Is sterling about to surge? No. Are Greeks/Chinese/Arabs/Russians about to repatriate their cash because their domestic political and economic situations have suddenly become secure?

So what is going to trigger this crash?

[VulcanWoman]

I don't get the shed, am I missing something, it's in some ones back garden.

[LeotardoDaVinci]

I think talk of a crash is irresponsible

Seriously do you think that the OP's expressing their opinion on Mn is going to affect the housing market or whether someone will buy or hold off on the strength of OP's opinion!!!!!

[Toomuch2young]

The shed is insane!
House selling has stagnated here North west village. Houses used to sell in days but we have a few now that have been on for 6-12 months.

[nonnomnom]

I think they will crash - at least in those areas that have shot up recently - simply because as MrsDeVere points out, house prices in many parts of London have doubled or tripled in literally about 2 years - no way on earth is that sustainable. Given that amounts you can borrow on a mortgage have been really locked down and BTL is facing heavy tax measures, who exactly is going to be doing the buying? Who is going to have access to that kind of money AND not prefer less risky investments?

It makes no sense as an investment because the rental yields wouldn't even cover an interest only mortgage and how many buyers are left that can afford current prices? You need first time buyers to be able to afford the bottom rung of the ladder - increasingly unlikely. Sure, laundered money wants a home but they'll get a far better return in other countries and in loads of other investments.

[SansaClegane]

I agree with Morris upthread- it's shit and it's unfair, but it won't change.

In my area, you can buy a shitty ex council 2 bed bungalow for £440K, or a non-council 3 bed one for £600K. In my village, there's a 2 bed detached house just come on for sale, at £650K.
Do I despair at these prices? Yes, of course. Do I think there's a crash just round the corner? No. As its been pointed out already, there's a chronic shortage of houses. And the asking prices can only be this high because someone is willing to pay it.
Our house has gone up a lot in the three years since we've bought it; but so has everything else. I'd love to move somewhere bigger as we're bursting at the seams here due to (unplanned) DC3, but I can't see it happening as the prices will only go up.

[DaylightSnobbery]

YANBU regarding the shed. The last one we bought was only £300.

[SchnitzelVonKrumm]

London's population is the highest it has ever been - that's London proper, not the conurbation - and is forecast to rise another million by 2030. Like MrsDeVere says, too many people fighting over too few houses.

[DogStrummer]

"so long as mortgages available- although I was surprised when we were on market around age selling price, at just how many people were cash"

In the South-East, the market seems divorced from mortgages now. I was involved in a property sale last year, and it was a sealed-bid auction. 16 bids were received. 10 of which were cash, and 3 of those were well above the asking price.

Some of this money seems to be coming from countries in the middle-east, and Southern Europe. A colleague of mine bought a BTL flat with money from her father, who had sent it from Greece to get it out "to safety".

I can't imagine what would cause a sustained crash to be honest.

[ipsos]

OP: have you experienced the joy of housepricecrash.co.uk? It kept us going while we we waited patiently for the last price dip.

[ThroughThickAndThin01]

The Guardian has a good article about the UBS London property report. It is an enormous bubble at the moment. It will have to pop, but whether the affects will be mild or disasterous, who knows. It might be a scary roller coaster, or it might pass most people by.

I'm nervous about it.

[ipsos]

I always wonder if buy-to-let is part of the problem. If people could get decent pensions instead of buying investment property, then surely there would be far more houses and flats available for people to buy to live in and then they should be more affordable.

I like the idea of the government including buy-to-let flat in the right-to-buy scheme. It would discourage people from holding property as an investment and free up far more houses for people who actually want to buy them to live in.

[BrianButterfield]

I bought my house in 2008 - just before the banking crisis started. It hasn't really gone up much I value since then (I live in a not-so-popular area) but it went down a bit and has now recovered. However, if I'd relied on HPC (which I read a lot at the time) I would have been renting for the last 7 years waiting for a huge crash - meanwhile I've paid off a massive chunk of my mortgage meaning even if prices go down again we'd still be pretty much OK.

[GwynethPaltrowIamNot]

Even the doer uppers are too expensive if you can find one

I like the shed though

[tobysmum77]

I think the big issue with doer uppers is that you need money to do them up. It was what the 110% mortgages allowed. Doing places up became very difficult for ftbs after the financial crash.

[GnomeDePlume]

But if you get rid of buy to let where are the current tenants going to live? Certainly in my area properties get let very quickly indicating that there is strong demand for rental.

[OurBlanche]

The problem with getting rid of btl is the assumption that all of their tenants can or want to rent.

I think its was MrsDV upthread that pointed out her area going upmarket has encouraged the btl landlords to sell, leaving many people forced out of their home areas.

[SchnitzelVonKrumm]

Yes, but there is a difference between a moderation in prices and a collapse.

[jevoudrais]

I am sure prices will stagnate but I don't expect to see a large crash.

Basic economics, demand exceeds supply, drives prices up. As long as people can get funds in place, demand will stay high. If interest rates were to rise I would expect house prices to stop increasing because a lot less people would be moving/buying based on affordability alone. But I wouldn't expect them to drop significantly as a result, because not that many would be so buggered they would need to sell ASAP.

Best place to be is on the ladder, if you lose, so do people selling the next house you want to buy etc as a general rule. I worry for those who can't afford it and think they can save X by 2017 only to be unable to afford to buy because rises on house prices are faster than those of their savings when the time comes.

I also worry about all those who took out help to buy and if they will manage when rates go up. Great to get on the ladder, assuming you can afford to stay on it.

[OurBlanche]

if property is so expensive that you can't get a mortgage, what can you do? Last time the banks came up with an ingenious solution...

It will plateau when/if there is a tranche of new homes built. But the success of that depends entirely on the number and type of homes being built in the right location. That will require a social commitment from the developers...

And we already have recent examples of hat happens if too many new homes are built.

[Mintyy]

I remember a 10 year house price crash 1987 - 1997. The values wiped off homes were enormous. My flat went down from £75,000 to £55,000, and didn't recover to £75,000 until 1997. I was in negative equity for almost the entire 10 years I owned it. It is foolish to think they won't crash again and I hope they do!

[Varya]

One bed log cabin, not a shed!