I've been reading the recent threads about this on here with interest. I came across this article by Robert Joyce of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
Do have a read. We won't know the full extent of what is planned until 8 July when we hear the new Budget, but we do know that Tax Credits and Housing Benefit are in the firing line, along with an expected reduction in the Universal Credit Cap of £26,000 to £23,000.
I haven't posted this to provoke an argument, more to try to provide some authoritative information for those seeking possible answers, and to express my sadness at what I fear will be the impact.
Here are some of the highlights of the article, in my words:
Yes there will be an extension of free childcare, to enable you to work longer hours in your min wage job to make up for SOME of the shortfall caused by the withdrawal or abolition of WTC, whuch currently costs £30bn.
That's if you can find a childcare provider, and succeed in obtaining additional working hours.
No doubt they will also raise the tax threshold - but that will benefit higher earners just as much as the lowest paid.
Child benefit may be cut more quickly by lowering the cash terms threshold, so the number of families who reach the threshold will increase more quickly.
Or they might cut the amount for the first child, or for the number of subsequent children.
Or it may be abolished altogether and be included as an element of means tested CTC.
Cuts to housing benefit seem inevitable, as this makes up £26bn of the welfare budget - and not just for 18-21yo. This may be achieved by cuts to the LHA, or introducing a percentage co-payment (say 10-20% of rent) for tenants in both social and private rented housing. Worth bearing in mind if that might necessitate a move to a cheaper area, and possible loss of employment.
Disability and incapacity benefits, carer's and attendance allowances, at £37bn, are also likely to be affected. Whether by taxing, means testing, or simple abolition.
I think the Tories' position on welfare in the run up to the 2010 election was misleading. Certainly here, on thread after thread in the run up to 2010, people were declaring that the problem of the welfare bill needed to be tackled, but believed the Tories would only tackle so-called "career claimants".
It seems to me that all that "hardworking families" "strivers v skivers" stuff was designed to divide and rule. I don't blame people for believing it, but the Tories have always been the Party of low taxation, small state and individual responsibility - and that's not about to change.
Anyway, that's just my view. I'm sure there are still plenty of people who think lower taxation and a smaller welfare state will be beneficial to the economy.
But it's clear that a lot of people, and many, many children, will suffer when these benefit lifelines are taken away.