To think the labour party faces a serious battle for survival.

[sunshield]

The Labour party is in a unwinnable battle, Scotland has gone forever, for any 'English/Welsh' party of any description. There are only a few Labour seats south of Warrington (Merseyside is of course out of sync with most of England). The Labour Party are almost extinct in the South West/East. It could not pick up seats in Derby/Nuneaton which are areas of Skilled/Semi Skilled Workers . s controlled by Liberal Oxbridge Educated academics , who believe they know better and expect the "plebs" to do as they are told and vote for them , without allowing them to ask questions (It is not for them to ask Questions of their betters!".

The Labour Party refused to listen to people like Frank field , opting to go down the left wing path to destruction, coming up with 'targeting' 50-100 thousand Nom Doms" for dogmatic and sound bite reasons, not for any sound financial reason. The same can be said of the Mansion Tax idea )what the hell is Stamp duty , if it is not MANSION TAX. If that idea had been carried out , suddenly you would have found a drop in house price values, or a slow down of purchasing of expensive housing, meaning a drop in revenue from stamp duty as well as "Tourists" non doms putting their houses up for sale and making plans for relocation, causing restaurants , hotels serious issues meaning job losses. The biggest issue though would of course of been all the people employed by the rich foreigners to look after them in the UK Nannies/Gardeners Cooks /Drivers. Rich People who place no demands on the state they use private schools Private Health Care their own Security. Why have policies designed to drive "tourists" out of your Country. The answer to that of course is that this policy plays on the "Envy" of people, not on benefit to the country and that is crutch of the problem for the Labour Party, instigating policy ideas based on crass assumptions about their "voters" ideas or what they have read in their studies at Oxbridge.

They have less understanding about normal people and their lives, views aspirations than the "BULLINGDON" lot. This is because they at least understand who to market products or "seduction" because their own Businesses that need to earn money.

The Labour Party is doomed unless it can realise , nobody outside specific inner city areas or union leaders are interested in tired old sound bites about rich people.

The reason I state "survival" is because in its present form it is very unlikely to win a general election. The labour Party , therefore have to look at themselves and decide whether " Labour" being a party of the Unions and the Working class is right for the 21st century. it is time for them to ditch association with the Unions and build a party around a kind US Democrats type thing possibly the conversations could involve dropping the labour name and coming up with a more appropriate and less "Class" based name.

I realise people will now say I am being stupid, but I believe they need a completely new identity roughly about 10% to the left of the Conservative Party. Otherwise Known as "blairism" but without him of course.

HoppingGreen I agree that the Tories did a good job campaigning in the North.

I'm also sad to say I agree with how you describe Labour these days, and their complacency when in power about their old heartlands. I feel I may have just voted for them for the last time.

Surely that's a discussion the LibDems should be having, given that they now have just 8 seats?

No. We've been here before.

I do think they should change their name, it feels like false advertising; or rather like the political equivalent of the Cadbury brand!

The other way they could win an massive majority is to become a party to the right of the Tory party promising to abolish inheritance tax reduce top rate income tax down to 30% ETC abolish all welfare. That way they would attract all the Conservative voters and still attract the people who vote Labour because they are called Labour but know nothing about policy !

Only Kidding but a thought.....

I used to be a member but couldn't bring myself to vote for them this time. I have rejoined so I can vote in the next leadership election. Lots of people saying that Labour had become too left wing and not seen as a party of aspiration etc. I totally agree but why are people only speaking out now?!

I think this is Labour's last chance to elect the right leader and sort the direction of the party out for once and all. If they get wrong this time, they will go the same way as the Liberal Democrats.

It's a scary prospect. Even if you support Conservative you must still recognise that you need a strong opposition that offers an alternative. If you live in Scotland you have just that but the rest of the country is stuffed.

I don't see why the Lib Dems need to think about survival anymore than Labour. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about their future. They were predicted to suffer heavy loses and it wasn't a great surprise even if they were heavier than expected. They are relatively united still as a party considering.

I do think its a harder question for Labour due to the pressures they have from all directions. Just because they have more seats is irrelevant. They were predicted to win seats but instead there was more of a collapse of the vote. The reasons seem to be more less clear cut and more varied and the directions they have to go, are likely to upset parts of their surviving support. Trying to balance those beliefs will be difficult. They will have something of an internal battle about where to go next as they a little bit like headless chickens from the shock of loosing so badly.

Trying to balance those beliefs will be difficult

I could not agree more.

It's so hard to articulate which direction I think the Labour Party needs to go. We cannot tread the paths we have gone before in history. It needs to be a new, more coherent, inclusive path that still offers an alternative to the Conservatives.

Labour elected the wrong brother. They have become irrelevant there original base of manual workers has shrunk as we are no longer a manufacturing nation. John Smith and then Blair made Labour electable again. Red Ed lurched back to the left and lost.

Politics is cyclical. The Tories were supposed to be out of power for a generation after 97. It didn't happen.

I remember that, and they came back all Tory-lite with a shiny new leader and a shiny new shadow-cabinet, pushing all the old guard well and truly in to the back benches.

1997 - 2010 is thirteen years. Its not a generation but its also not far off either.

I remember 1992. It was awful. A Labour leader mauled and harassed by the right wing press. A Tory government with a small minority elected, a total surprise. That government limped through five years, torn apart by arguing about Europe, as the Tories always do. Who'd have thought in 92 that we'd have had the landslide of 97? It would have been thought impossible.
So we lick our wounds, decide what needs to be done and carry on fighting.

A Tory government with a tiny majority, having to deal with a EU referendum? We might be living in interesting times, comrades.
I was gutted on Friday, gutted and angry. I rejoined the Labour Party on Sunday. Time to put that energy to good use.

I remember '92 as well. That defeat resonated so strongly with me and I was only little! I cried when I woke up in the morning and asked my dad who had won.

I felt much the same way on Friday. Like the Labour I believed in had been crushed again.

Note: I did not cry five years ago

My DS also believes that they can't bounce back either.

1997 was a different position though - a tired Conservative govt that had been in power for 18 years and a new leader with a New Labour - no third parties either.

50 odd Scottish seats gone - certainly for 2020, maybe longer. Ukip started as right wing as they were conservatives who hated Europe. They moved economically left towards the election and the 'racist' card has as much power in working class seats as in the Shires, maybe more so.

Ukip could easily move towards a social and racial position to please the 'Little Englander' with a left wing economic agenda.

I can see Labour winning in London, inner Birmingham, inner Manchester. Ukip taking c.10 seats, SNP in Scotland. If you look at Labour party history, and take 60 off for SNP/UKip, they would only have won a majority in 1997 and 2001 in thier entire history.
Of course they only won 5 times between 1945 and 1997.

I didn't say it was going to be easy, but the Tories are going to tie themselves in knots about the EU referendum, they can't help themselves. The Scotland situation is not irreversable; it'll be very difficult, obviously.

Matthew Goodwin's book (Revolt on the Right, which is worth reading) says his analysis suggests that some Lib Dems did flip to UKIP.

Bear in mind that not all Lib Dems were voting Lib Dem because they were particularly metropolitan or liberal; some did so because it was a convenient outlet for a protest vote.

UKIP came second in a massive swathe of seats this time; the party's policy is to entrench itself as the "main opposition" in as many seats as possible, with the hope of winning lots in the 2020 election.

The other key indicator which will eventually turn the tide in some way is the balance between home owners (and to a lesser extent their children) and renters.

We have macmillan's property owning democracy - but it's now rather more complex, because property inflation fuels consumer demand and makes us feel wealthy. Underneath it, there is a yawning budget deficit (and I'm not talking about the 2008 post crash structural deficit) of Reaganite 1990s proportions, because we hardly export anything anymore.

The conservatives can't afford any policy that threatens the value of property - and instead have to promote "property-owner-friendly" policies.

Conversely Milliband was toast as soon as he started to talk in terms of even very moderate rent control (what would be so scary, in a normal balanced economy, about a three year residential tenancy?).

If there is a property crash (heaven forbid) labour may see a resurgence in support, but it would be a steep price to pay.

A European exit would cause a property crash - one reason why the referendum will never support it.

In the longer term, as the number of long-term renters begins to exceed the number of owners, we may start to see a gradual shift.

Housing is one of the keys I think, along (in the more distant future) with the pensions black hole, but that's for another thread.

Interesting figment. Housing policy was a factor in my Labour vote.

Labour list because they didn't listen to people's concerns on immigration and housing. They didn't take in board that most people are aspiration and run a titaoot negative campaign that pisses people off.

Coupled with the fact that odious Ed Balls was at the heart of the vicious smears from Gordon to Tony and that Ed Milliband was obviously totally unelectable with zero credence or good advisors.

The nail in his coffin was the carving in stone stunt. That alone proved he had zero judgment or even commen sense.

Labour wins when it has a leader that reinvents itself. Neil kinnock tried and Tony Blaire succeeded.

There really isn't anyone in the labour front runners now who are leader material.

They are in deep trouble I think. And deservedly so.

I don't believe Scotland is necessarily "lost forever". Many people voted SNP not because they are natural SNP supporters, but because of anger at how Labour has behaved in Scotland, and how they conducted their referendum campaign. if Labour gets its act together, a comeback is possible.

However, the SNP looks unstoppable at the moment. This new intake of MPs , very few of whom would have expected this time last year that they would be starting new jobs in Westminster right now, is going be a breath of fresh air. Some of them were Labour supporters right up until late last year (I think Tommy Shepherd was an Asst Gen Sec and paid employee). Most of them are very close to their constituencies, and worked a brilliant campaign. Our local MP seemed to be everywhere! His Labour predecessor didn't live in the constituency.

In Scotland, SNP are filling the gap that Labour has left. Pursuing "voters who aspire to shop at Waitrose" as Tristram Hunt suggests just won't cut it here.

I am not a natural SNP voter, but I did vote for them. I don't think people in Glasgow or Dundee face very different challenges from people in Leeds, Newcastle, Cardiff or Manchester. I didn't see Labour understanding or dealing with these challenges. It sounds great to talk about "rewarding working people" but what about in places where there few jobs, and these jobs are zero hours, minimum wage? What about people who can't work for health reasons? What about people in rural areas where public transport has been cut? Much as I love their ownership and procurement policies, Waitrose isn't the answer!

I'm immensely sad at the direction Labour is taking. They should have trounced this election - absolutely trounced it. They didn't because they didn't have good leadership, clear vision or a coherent, values based policy. I'd love a reason to go back to Labour, just don't see it coming any time soon.

I had assumed that the carved stone was a joke. I told dh off when he took it seriously, more fool me.

I know quite a few working class people who reluctantly voted Tory because they felt they had no choice. That's awful really. If you can't even get your core voters to vote for you there is no chance of getting the vote of the so called middle classes who voted for Blair back in 1997.

I see your viewpoint Olly but the SNP lobbying for Scotland's fair share is going to bring us all down sadly, it's the London area that pays most into the pot, what will we all do when they demand "fairness"? Boris Johnson will be pleased at this turn of events.

To paraphrase Marx I'd prefer it if workers of the UK unite! Sadly it looks as if they are going their separate ways now.