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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To ask how a yes vote would actually affect England?

96 replies

ziggiestardust · 07/09/2014 16:45

I can't really seem to find unbiased information anywhere Hmm

At the moment, I'm wondering whether it wouldn't be better if Scotland got its independence what with all these people who want it (or at least polls seem to say it's very close!) but again, I don't know.

Is it a good thing?

OP posts:
Handsoff7 · 07/09/2014 19:12

The debt position isn't as presented here. Scotland would actually face higher borrowing costs if they took on debt they didn't need to.

A Scotland with a clean slate is a lower risk to the borrower - it's not a default as such to choose not to take a share of UK debt.

The banking thing is also massively misrepresented. rUK would have had to bail out the banks anyway as though them failing would have been bad for Scotland it would be almost exactly as bad for England and Wales.

ArabellaTarantella · 07/09/2014 19:13

What's that got to with Scotland ffallada? If they go independent they can do what they like.........without subsidisation from England. (And I don't somehow think that will happen - just scaremongering.)

ArabellaTarantella · 07/09/2014 19:14

AND David Cameron won't be in power at the next election anyway Grin

BigBoobiedBertha · 07/09/2014 19:16

Yes, I worry about the number of people I read on these boards who say it isn't about details and policies because that will all be hammered out after the vote. It is about the principle of independence. That seems a horribly short sighted airy-fairy thing to base a vote on and indeed that sort of thinking is like lemmings over a cliff.

Thefishewife · 07/09/2014 19:16

Any way you cannot join the EU with out taking on the euro and they will not make a expection for. Scotland however special salmon thinks he is

The European Union grows as candidate countries meet the conditions for entry and accede to the Union – this process is known as enlargement. Similarly, the euro area is enlarging as non-euro-area EU Member States meet the conditions for entry and adopt the euro.

This is taken directly from the EU commission web site

LovleyRitaMeterMaid · 07/09/2014 19:16

Do you really believe that the Labour party is strong enough to uproot Cameron?

Thefishewife · 07/09/2014 19:18

So to be clear unless Scotland are not planning to join the EU they will be using the euro

LovleyRitaMeterMaid · 07/09/2014 19:19

But that is what we're working with. The details won't be hammered out until after. Curiously the EU have said they are willing to answer questions regarding membership but the constitution states those questions have to come from the UK.government. Who won't ask.

I wonder why?

Thefishewife · 07/09/2014 19:20

Add message | Report | Message poster LovleyRitaMeterMaid Sun 07-Sep-14 19:16:55
Do you really believe that the Labour party is strong enough to uproot Cameron?
it really dosent matter if labour gets in after a independent Scotland all the Scottish labour mps will be recalled after 6 months and ed the duck will be a lame duck not able to get anything through with out the Tory's

LovleyRitaMeterMaid · 07/09/2014 19:20

There is no precedent for a country within a member country, therefore already within the EU, gaining entry and having to take the Euro. See above.

Thefishewife · 07/09/2014 19:21

poster LovleyRitaMeterMaid

Do you not think they should find out first [condused] I wouldn't even buy a hoildAy if I didn't know the details until landing

ArabellaTarantella · 07/09/2014 19:22

Do you really believe that the Labour party is strong enough to uproot Cameron?

I think between all Candidates that we can vote for there may be a hung parliament. I think people are in for huge surprises at the next election.

LovleyRitaMeterMaid · 07/09/2014 19:23

But you are misunderstanding the situation. The UK government don't want to lose Scotland, that much is clear. It would therefore be foolish of them to lay out all their plans if.independence does happen before it does.

Thefishewife · 07/09/2014 19:24

If you leave the union you won't be in the EU you will be Scotland as it's the untinted Kingdom which is a a EU member you will have to re join I sat and watched the EU persident say Scotland will no jump the que and be subject to the same rules as everyone else

BigBoobiedBertha · 07/09/2014 19:25

Handsoff& - What makes you think there will be clean slate? Sounds like wishful thinking to me.

LovleyRitaMeterMaid · 07/09/2014 19:25

*for independence

ShakesBootyFlabWobbles · 07/09/2014 19:41

I hope Scotland doesn't leave. As a United Kingdom we get economy of scale with a shared armed forces, civil service, amongst countless other things.

I think that there will be ramifications for the Uk (not just England) as a split will be incredibly expensive. It will hit the markets significantly and thus our pension funds will decrease. I have every expectation that the SG will not pay any debt as a CU seems impossible... UK could bail out Scotland but if UK goes bust, we'd take an independent Scotland down with us as it could not bail out the UK.

If the UK taxpayer is saddled with all of these costs, it will cause a lot of resentment, I can't see how that isn't going to impact British consumers choices with Scottish produce and tourism to some extent.

I am also in the SE and get Angry at the myth we are somehow the only area that WM cares about, such an insular view. I don't feel connected to or particularly served by WM either.

Handsoff7 · 07/09/2014 20:00

I'm not Scottish so it's certainly not wishful thinking.

It does appear to be the current position if there's no currency union Scotland will take no debt. The markets would give a better borrowing rate if there was no existing debt and won't be at all concerned as to why - independence is a one-off so wouldn't have any bearing on a future default risk.

BigBoobiedBertha · 07/09/2014 20:29

But they do have debt though, don't they? They would just be kidding themselves if they think they can just walk away. Everything I have read suggests they will be penalised for that so it is wishful thinking (even if it isn't yours!) to think that the markets won't care.

Even if they could convince people they are debt free, their position would be equivalent to a person with no credit card not being able to credit because they have no credit history and they have no track record for managing debt. Either way they won't be getting favourable borrowing.

Quite apart from that the EU won't swallow it either.

womblesofwestminster · 07/09/2014 20:52

Usually when a county fights for independanxe there is a lot of blood shed. So far we've had some vandelism and an egg thrown.

I laughed too hard.

missingwordsround · 07/09/2014 21:09

I agree BigBoobied

Refusing to take responsibility for any portion of debt is damaging to credibility internationally, meaning options for government borrowing will be limited and therefore probably expensive.

I'm not sure handsoff that financial markets will not care about the default (despite their notoriously short memories!) I do think you are right in that they will still lend money - but it won't necessarily be at low rates because of low debt, it is more likely to be at high rates to reflect the potentially higher risk of an untried, untested economy, surely?

There are deep consequences to not having an independent central bank, or "lender of last resort"

So huge implications for Scottish finance. Banks will more than likely re-domicile to the UK, to appease shareholders and keep customers from fleeing in droves (in fact, without a credible solution to the lender of last resort, the Prudential Regulatory Authority is likely to insist on this)

This obviously has an impact as to where taxes are paid.

Finance currently accounts for 15% of exports and 8% of GDP so it is no small potatoes for Scotland to lose this.

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