If UKIP are so terrible, why did they win so much?

[balloondoggy]

I didn't vote UKIP - I voted for my local Christians. However, if I were to purely read the comments on Mumsnet and the comments on Facebook re UKIP, I would have thought they would come last; yet they didn't. Why? Are there so many of us on here that are so different from (clearly) the majority?

I think it's very interesting that, like here, many places had elections for council and EU. You had 2 ballot papers to fill in at the same time ...yet for the local elections (ones that people may have felt mattered more) very few voted UKIP and over all Labour did well

But at the same time people ticked UKIP for the Euro's ...which to be is an obvious protest vote

I get very annoyed seeing the same line of " they don't steal our jobs they only do the ones we don't want to do" sorry but that is bollocks!
My husband spend the whole of last year moving round factory jobs (agency) and most of the workers were polish, they were all taken on full time he was lucky if he got 3 months before waiting to see where he would go next sometimes with months inbetween jobs. He would be very happy to get a factory job and get weekends and chiristmas holidays but instead he has had to take a job in Mac Donalds because that's the only job he's been able to get after a year of looking, applying, and having interviews, never gets a weekend off and if lucky will get one maybe 2 days off at chritmas. Try seeing it from other peoples point of view, years ago things were different my brother got factory work when he left school and has been there ever since and he doesn't realise how hard it is for people now. I'm not a racist I'm just a wife and mother of 2 small boys and worried about our future.

Yes, I know. But we don't know which way the 30 odd % who didn't vote now, will vote in the GE. They could cause an almighty swing if people underestimate the fact that they might actually be UKIP voters. It's an unprecedented situation. In recent times, anyway.

Sorry, that was to longfingernails

In what world is 27% (which I understand is the % of the vote that UKIP got) the majority?

Thankfully, the majority of UK voters, 73%, did NOT support UKIP.

Scotland's result is being announced at 12.30.

emms

This is exactly what my dsis has found in distribution and warehouse work.
I'm not sure if she votes UKIP she hasn't said, and wouldn't tell me who she votes for. She tells me relations are strained with foreign work as they don't speak our language in general. They find it hard to communicate with bosses and the British end up helping them and sometimes doing part of their work too. They are sick of it, when they only get the same wage.

Funny how people exercising their democratic right to vote, who chose to vote right wing are shouted down as uneducated/stupid and "terrifying"

People voting left wing though are fine, because thats their opinion

It's a democracy, people! People should be able to vote for who they want without this bullying. Because yes, it is bullying. And people being bullied for partaking in a democratic vote is more dangerous than a right wing party getting in.

the mind boggles to be honest.

Toad I don't understand how anyone cannot find the half-bakedness of UKIP frighteing

FidelineandFumblin What is much more worrying is the half-bakedness of the Labour spending plans. UKIP don't have a realistic shot at power. Ed and Ed do (though thankfully, that prospect becomes dimmer with every passing day).

Come off it, Toad, no-one is being bullied. Because, guess what, we have a secret vote.

Icimoi Tower Hamlets

I don't understand how ANYONE can accept any of the parties who fail to honour their manifestos. I don't understand why the public is not up in arms demanding that policy changes and we're permitted to vote for an issue, not a party.

UKIP are no more frightening than any other party - because they're not in power. The one to fear is the one currently in power, whichever one it is because it's dishonest.

Why are we so accepting of shoddy leadership and policies in the UK?

But just because YOU don't understand it doesn't mean anything. The fact is the UK has democratically and legally voted in more UKIP MEP's than any other party. The people have spoken. This frightening bullying and heckling of voters is appalling I think. You need to accept that people think and vote differently to you. I assume you want to be able to vote the way that you choose without fear of being verbally lynched?

Icimol "Come off it, Toad, no-one is being bullied. Because, guess what, we have a secret vote."

OK so if I say here "I voted UKIP I have read their manifesto and agree with their policies." nobody is going to come on here and call me stupid, dangerous, uneducated, racist...etc etc? I think you've got your head in the sand.

longfingernails It's the difference between the D'Hondt method of PR which was in place in the European elections and the UK's first past the post system for Westminster. It's also due to the fact that people do vote differently in European and Westminster elections. In the 2009 European elections, UKIP's vote share was 16.5%. The following year in the General Election they polled 3.17%.

The analysis of 2010 indicates that it was the presence of UKIP in key target seats that cost the Conservatives an overall majority. Labour have a built in electoral advantage under the current parliamentary boundaries that the proposed boundary changes (scuppered when the LibDems had a hissy fit over not winning the referendum on PR) sought to equalise. Which is always going to be difficult because as this article explains, even though there are regular boundary reviews, the data on which they are based is already many years out of date. The current boundaries were based on data from 2000 so will be 15 years out of date by the next general election.

Add to that, as also explained in the UK Polling Report article, the fact that as a general trend Labour seats are smaller than Conservative ones, it means that Labour need a lower percentage of overall vote share to gain substantial majorities. In 2005, Labour had a 3 point lead over the Conservatives and won with a majority of 60 MPs, whereas in 2010 the Conservatives had a 7 point lead over Labour and failed to win an overall majority.

I will try and find a different swing calculator, the one on the UK Polling Report site only allows you to include the figures for the main three parties. However, if you put the vote share from the European elections into their calculator (Labour 25.4, Conservative 23.93, LibDem 6.87 as per the BBC website then Labour end up with 319 seats, 7 short of an overall majority.

Now, these predictions are flawed in that they tend to work on the basis of a uniform national swing, which we don't see as much these days (it is still a factor, but maybe not as much as it once was). However, this General Election prediction, based on polls conducted between 5th April and 1st May 2014, currently gives Labour a majority of 40 MPs, with UKIP predicted to get a 14.44% share of the vote, substantially up from the 3.17% in 2010 but still without giving them a single MP.

Sorry, that took me a while!

I love the fact that we have a secret vote, and that people are free to pick a mainstream or a fringe candidate without pressure.
Indeed, it is democratic and if people are dismayed by the outcome, then the next step is to work out why people chose to vote as they did. What did they feel was missing? Can the pro-EU voters list all the benefits of staying in and make them plausible to the sceptics? Or will they rely on 'You're just stupid and racist'?
For me, one of the interesting points about UKIP is that it took votes from all the other parties, left right and middle.

I will try and find a different swing calculator, the one on the UK Polling Report site only allows you to include the figures for the main three parties.

Google 'Electoral Calculus' - sorry can't remember the domain name - not a commited enough nerd.

ChillieJeanie But I suspect UKIP take most votes from the Tories in exactly the 'donkey with a blue rosette' constituencies where previously the Tories accumulated mountains of 'useless' votes. That would have the effect of making the Tory vote more efficient, and reduce the inbuilt advantage that Labour have.

"Funny how people exercising their democratic right to vote, who chose to vote right wing are shouted down as uneducated/stupid and "terrifying""

But, what what I want to know is, do UKIP voters actually stand behind things like no maternity pay, lowered benefits for people with disabilities, children with disabilities coming out of mainstream schools and adults with disabilities living in separate communities.

Payment for fast tracking in the NHS, flat rate income tax, social housing awarded by whether your grandparents were born in your council area, corporal punishment in schools...

Because that is the party they've voted for and the answers I get on here are that they're not UKIP policies when they published those views or that it's a protest vote, but that doesn't answer whether they actually support those things and yes, some of those things are terrifying.

UNS is useless. What matters is the marginal constituencies. The Ashcroft marginals poll has the Lib Dem defectors making Red Ed PM with a comfortable majority - but that's a year out from a General Election.

this is an interesting summary

31 million people didn't vote - of those who did 4.35 million voted UKIP ... 4 million vote labour - not a huge difference

31 million not voting is terrible - basically nothing and no one makes them care enough - which is damning of ALL the parties

tabulahrasa where is their manifesto online that promises to do all those thing? genuine question by the way, I would actually like to read their manifesto becuase I haven't (and i didn't vote, before anyone leaps on me for voting without reading!)

tabulah I would imagine that a number of right wing traditional conservative voters who switched might well support those views. I have no idea how many traditional left wing Labour voters who have switched to UKIP would agree with them. And if they do, how they do.

Are UKIP considering opening up schools for kids with Special needs and getting them out of mainstream tabularasa?