Really, Loeri? Really?
You think that the BBC hasn't ever seriously reviewed the opportunities and costs of an OTT service?
And you can say, with assurance, that you know how the numbers will play out? Mind putting up the model then? I'd like to see your NPV calculations, plus of course reviewing your estimates of changes in market share for pay-TV vs OTT, as well as the detailed assumptions that lie behind your confident assertions.
For people who are actually interested in some facts, here's what the BBC is saying about the market context (specifically for OTT services, there's plenty more on other topics).
"Cord-cutting, cord-shaving and cord-nevers
The television industry continues its preoccupation with the potential impact on the traditional pay TV eco-system of over-the-top (OTT) providers like Netflix and Amazon-owned LOVEFiLM. Reflecting the level of discussion and debate, a new vocabulary is being built-up to describe consumer behaviour in response to OTT: cord-cutting, cord-shaving and cord-nevers. Broadband distribution of content is changing the way television content is accessed and viewed and will change audience expectations over time. But evidence of the likely impact on pay TV is inconclusive and up for debate.
Total pay TV households in the USA remained virtually flat during 2012. Between Q4 2011 and Q4 2012 cable and satellite operators lost 1.4m paying households, with virtually the same number picked up by Internet Protocol Television (IPTV) platforms (IHS Screen Digest). These subscription numbers include the cyclical effects of a weak economy as well as the structural effect of OTT competition. At the moment, cord-cutting - when customers move from expensive cable service to a low cost channel subscription through OTT - may be as much the result of squeezed household incomes as it is a switch in favour of broadband-distributed, video-on-demand services. There is perhaps greater concern over cord-shaving, where consumers stop taking premium packages as part of their pay TV subscriptions in favour of cheaper OTT options.
For now, we believe pay TV and OTT can co-exist for at least the next ten years. Nielsen's Cross-Platform Report in Q4 2012 puts live television viewing at 156 hours per month for an average American, up on the year before and little changed from five years previously. By comparison, time spent per month watching video on the internet or on mobile phone was around 13 hours, with a similar 13 hours spent watching time-shifted television. Relative viewing behaviour is similar in the UK.
However, there will be pressures. In the short term, negotiations between pay TV platform operators and networks appear to be becoming even more difficult.
In the medium term, new players are joining the fray, potentially bringing new and more disruptive business models. For example, Intel confirmed its intention to launch an OTT television service and has been signing content deals.
In the long term, the risk for the pay TV system lies in a generational shift in the potential for cord-nevers among those currently under 25 years old. According to Nielsen, 35-49 year olds in America watch 157 hours of live TV a month and 12 hours of video on the internet or a mobile phone. The figures for 18-24 year olds are 111 and 22. If there is a generation growing up keen and comfortable to search for what they want to watch, and expecting it to be available immediately, they may not follow their parents in preferring the lean-back experience of live television and may never choose to subscribe to pay television."