Crisis What Crisis? Is my friend over doing the stockpiling and am I too? Continuation thread (2)

[RedToothBrush]

Continuation of the AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling thread for discussion about the government advice to stockpile for an imminent emergency and what the heck that emergency might actually be.

I'm moving it over to chat from AIBU as it makes a bit more sense to be there at this point.

Previous thread
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling?page=1

Spoiler: it's more of a perfect storm of lots of factors coming together to potentially form one great clusterfuck from economic woes, global energy shortages (mainly diesel), potential food shortages, war and madmen to crazy weather patterns rather than a clear identifiable singular thread.

This is a practical thread and a bit of a handhold thread to make sense of events and how they may affect you. This is not an end of the world thread.

We are however going through a period where various governments throughout Europe think there is an elevated risk of some kind of problem due to global instability and we should start to get our heads around the possibility of needing to be ready for anything.

Remember an emergency can range from a temporary unexpected event to a much longer crisis but the underlying principles generally stay the same.

So this is for everything from tips and considerations about what might be a good idea to do /save minimise potential risks to just straight old political bollocks talk about how things are developing.

This is the official government information and advice, if you want further details on what the actual recommendations are:
https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/get-prepared-for-emergencies/

This does actually explicitly say to write a personalised plan for your household which everyone knows and understands and to talk about the issues you may face to help you be able mobilise for any situation which might arise. Which is exactly what this thread is ultimately for.

In the nicest possible way, it’s all very well prepping, but if you do not have the means to defend your family and inventory, it’s not worth a hill of beans…

What happens if Trump loses the midterms? Excuse my ignorance but does USA get a new president and does that mean some of the current problems might disappear.

@HurryUpParcelDelivery we're always getting chest infections in this house so I would feel better knowing I have antibiotics in case of supply chain shortages.
Hopefully the plague thing has gone away.
From all that @RedToothBrush( thanks again for all the updates, much appreciated) has listed, we could do without that turning out to be a thing after all.

We don't have anything similar. The US system has two elected houses not just the one we have.

So the mid terms are when members of the house are selected. It means that a sitting President can either get a majority or lose a majority.

It affects how easy it is for the president to do him job.

If they lose the mid terms they can start to block anything he does.

Except in Trumps case there's every chance he won't accept the result and all hell breaks lose.

You are right in so far as if we are talking houses being looted and complete lack of law and order. However most of us are hoping it's just powercuts or empty shelves we are preparing for.

Anyone that breaks into my house will be set upon by my elderly, quite alot of teeth missing, deaf shihtzu (scary!)

We can also use the tins as weapons for throwing!

thanks for explaining. Oh well that's going to be fun to watch.

I think quite a few people do have the means.

As a hobby we go shooting. The children also even know how to use a bow and arrow’s, cross bow and sling shots. As it’s part of sport in our house. We also do throwing knifes and axes. We actually have our own personal range for practise in our garden.

Now that’s not to say someone couldn’t pillage our home but odds are off the general neighbour going a bit crazy and trying to steal some beans would definitely be sent packing.

Even our primary school teachers archery thinking about in.

On another note all my flour arrived today.

Diesel has gone back up by 2p a ltr again today.

Another excuse to buy more candles as ever as we popped to home bargains.

For those who would miss yogurts: I have stocked up on some Easiyo yogurts. They come dry in packets, to which you then add water and shake them.
They need some time in the Easiyo flask and pot set up, but I think would work just as well in an ordinary flask.
I think they are not as additive free as your own yogurt culture in milk, but they would fill a gap. They keep well past the best before dates, too.

Well, tins are heavy to carry away, and awkward. No-one knows from the outside of your house what's inside, unless you've advertised having stores of food. After the first few days, if break-ins start to happen, my plan is shifting food into hiding places, like suitcases, boxes with clothes in, that sort of thing. So as soon as I hear of looting reports (less likely where I live, but still you never know) I will begin moving at least half my stores into those places. After a few days looters probably won't be surprised if you only have a few tins so they won't suspect you've got other stocks hidden, and I doubt they'll spend an hour turning over your entire house when there's a street of other houses.

The other point is to fortify your home so break-ins are less likely. I guess make sure windows are locked, doors securely locked and bolted. Make sure your house doesn't look empty but there's at least one light at a window. Perhaps a door security bar? Some kind of wedge? Must look into that. And get some sleep!

Re the defending my 5kg of pasta, beans and chopped tomatoes. I have three adult men in the house, a 5,11 teen boy and a very angry dd.

However in most power cuts my neighbours tend to be very British and sit around in the pitchdark rather than break in and try to steal my tea lights.

We are very rural but in a little Hamlet. No one walks past the house and we all know each other. If I got paranoid about having power in a extended power cut I'd put towels over the curtains to block light but I just can't see that where I live tbh. Riots etc dont come within 20 + miles of us. Even the big city didn't have riots.

Ok so you actually use it in the normal lamp

Looking at France and the chaos and anarchy is a wake up call isn't it.
Brussel and Milan also all about the cost of fuel and living costs.
Apparently Macron won't call the army because he's trying to manoueve into clinging onto power with some article he can trigger.....all speculation. Of course .
Some very interesting posts I've seen about macron and previous French governments ignoring the people.
Many people have genuine greivances but as ever the ones who use the chaos to loot are piggy backing.
These are people who can eat and probably have homes that are heated with lights.
Imagine if they had extra issues like no food and.no heat.

Throwing knives and axes 😂well they certainly would be sent packing possibly with an axe wedged somewhere

Placemarking (sorry) as I've realised I can't face reading the whole thread at once ... 😟

@PriorPreparation these are the updated versions of the ones we have. Amz reviews not great, but I am a fan. We have one in each room in an oft unused lamp and charge them for a couple of hours (ie switch them on) once a month. We have had them since late 2022 (after a three day power cut) and only 1 of the 12 has failed. I think that was because it was a hall light which was in daily use.

We inform you that this morning, on October 18, between 6:00 a.m. and 8:00 a.m., an unidentified, possibly unmanned aerial vehicle was detected in Lithuanian airspace, which triggered air raid alerts in several regions.

In view of the available data and the high likelihood that the object could enter Latvian territory, a cell broadcast was also activated in the Bauska, Aizkraukle, and Ogre municipalities.

In response to the possible threat, NATO air defense mission fighter jets were scrambled.
According to the information currently available, the fighter jets did not shoot down the possible unmanned aerial vehicle, and there is a possibility that the unidentified object detonated on its own. The incident location is in the Pasvalys district in northern Lithuania, near the Latvian border.

Lithuanian police officers are currently working at the scene, conducting initial investigation and evidence collection activities. The circumstances of the incident, including the possible origin of the unmanned aerial vehicle and the possible cause of the explosion, are still under investigation.

FFS MN! Auto hide again. Not the same subject either.

Sigh.

I haven't got time to repeat what I said right now. If I find time later I will.

https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/2111680320601043028
I think this post triggered MN.

Section of the above.
People have studied this. Whether you take Ray Dalio’s six-stage cycle theory, Peter Turchin’s "elite overproduction" thesis or the Chinese dynastic cycle framework, they all come to the same conclusion: when debt piles up, public services crumble and those in power become incapable, the streets eventually explode.

In fact it's almost eerie how France ticks almost every box of most cycle theories:
- Fiscal distress (debt is 119% of GDP and we now pay more to borrow than Italy or Greece),
- Crumbling public services: a reminder that these protests (now turning into riots) started with high school students protesting over the state of education
- Political paralysis and a legitimacy crisis (Macron has an insane 82% disapproval rate, he's definitely lost the Mandate of Heaven...)
- Popular immiseration with a record poverty rate at 15.4% and a median wage at only €2,190 net per month for a full-time private sector employee (you can't even afford to rent a decent flat in any major French city with this)

"Third worldism" or "Islamism" isn't the cause of any of this: French governments didn't borrow like there's no tomorrow (the last balanced budget dates back to 1974!) because the "Muslim Brotherhood" told them to, and it wasn’t Putin or Xi who left French classrooms without teachers...

Sadly the reactions - scapegoating - are ALSO typical of this stage of the cycle: Dalio lists among the classic markers of Stage 5 the emergence of "scapegoat classes who are commonly believed to be the source of the problems"

I've pointed out on MN for many years that a 20% unemployed rate in any area or social population is a critical mass and throughout history triggers civil unrest.

Everything happening throughout the world triggers this. There's many contributing factors but AI won't help and Trump has merely speeded up a lot of the underlying problems imho.

Also big incident at an Alberta Military Base. Massive casualty event. Numbers sound in the hundreds. The base is situated on a natural gas field (yes really) and by all accounts during a training exercise an artillery round hit one of this, triggered some kind of explosion and subsequent wild fire. It sounds very bad. I lean towards gross incompetence of some kind here but it's the Alberta Independence referendum TOMORROW so that's going to feature in discussion about the incident, rightly or wrongly.

One other thing to note. Riots tend to happen in the summer. That's not to say they don't happen in cold weather. They do. But people are more willing to congregate outside in warmer weather naturally (But not too hot either). So there's more chance of problems.

There's also a known link about extreme weather and violent behaviour.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/extreme-weather-and-violent-behaviour

The link between extreme weather events and aggression
Extreme weather events can increase violent behaviour. Heatwaves, wildfires, flooding and droughts are often traumatic and stressful events that can affect emotional regulation leading to hostility and aggression.

The climate change and mental health report looked at the association between extreme weather and violence (see section 1.9). In particular, the confidence assessment notes that:

wildfires, heat events and droughts increase risks of violence (moderate confidence)

flooding events increase risks of violence (low confidence because the evidence was mixed)

Hot weather is associated with:

more aggressive behaviour in mental health facilities
increased gender-based violence
increased domestic violence
higher rates of agitation in people with dementia

Wildfires can trigger or intensify domestic aggression. Communities affected by wildfires, especially women from these communities, have reported higher levels of violence than those in unaffected areas.

International evidence, including from economically similar countries such as Australia and Canada, links flooding to increased domestic violence, with those experiencing violence fearing repeated violence during future flooding events.

Drought-related stress may contribute to household conflict. Economic pressures and resource scarcity during droughts can lead to increased domestic abuse and relationship strain.

Domestic violence may be underreported during extreme weather events, making it a hidden but serious concern.

It's interesting that the official line about stockpiling is about El Nino in the UK and this government article dated Dec 2025, talks effectively about a link between El Nino and potential for violence.

Evaporated milk is the one you can add water to to make a milk substitute. It's sweeter than ordinary milk, particularly given that most of us drink skimmed nowadays. Condensed milk is more like the consistency of caramel (in fact you can make an amazing caramel with it by adding butter and a bit of salt). It's very very, very, sweet.

Be aware that of all the tins that spoil (not many do), evaporated milk and tomato soup are the worst so make sure you rotate the evaporated milk. I'm generally fairly slack on tin rotation since most things last decades longer than the date on the tin but due to their propensity to spoil wouldn't do that with tins of tomato soup or tins of evaporated milk. I'd only let them go a few months over.

and a very angry dd

😂

2007 floods here caused 18 days of no water after our treatment plant was flooded. It was 24 hours before we had water delivered locally, limit 2l each - no point in requeuing as very long and delivery ran out. After a few days bowsers were slowly delivered, meaning we could have a strip wash/possible - not enough forvlots of toilet flushing. We nearly lost our power as well as that was close to flooding. Main supermarket was closed for 36 hours as it had been flooded. No break-ins, no one draining off water butts, looting notevenin a rough city nearby. Either way, if something similar happened again I'd rather be able to drink and eat for as long as possible, as well as having sufficient petrol to get to my Mum or moving out for a few days.