Crisis What Crisis? Is my friend over doing the stockpiling and am I too? Continuation thread (2)

[RedToothBrush]

Continuation of the AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling thread for discussion about the government advice to stockpile for an imminent emergency and what the heck that emergency might actually be.

I'm moving it over to chat from AIBU as it makes a bit more sense to be there at this point.

Previous thread
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling?page=1

Spoiler: it's more of a perfect storm of lots of factors coming together to potentially form one great clusterfuck from economic woes, global energy shortages (mainly diesel), potential food shortages, war and madmen to crazy weather patterns rather than a clear identifiable singular thread.

This is a practical thread and a bit of a handhold thread to make sense of events and how they may affect you. This is not an end of the world thread.

We are however going through a period where various governments throughout Europe think there is an elevated risk of some kind of problem due to global instability and we should start to get our heads around the possibility of needing to be ready for anything.

Remember an emergency can range from a temporary unexpected event to a much longer crisis but the underlying principles generally stay the same.

So this is for everything from tips and considerations about what might be a good idea to do /save minimise potential risks to just straight old political bollocks talk about how things are developing.

This is the official government information and advice, if you want further details on what the actual recommendations are:
https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/get-prepared-for-emergencies/

This does actually explicitly say to write a personalised plan for your household which everyone knows and understands and to talk about the issues you may face to help you be able mobilise for any situation which might arise. Which is exactly what this thread is ultimately for.

@FindingMeno @Rubydobydo The Soviets believed women made better snipers than men. This fact warms me when Hegseth blathers on about the accommodation of women in combat roles being ‘the cause of a drop in US armed forces standards’. He is such an alcoholic blow-dried pillock.

Yes i know exactly what you mean, I find it bizarre that no one seems to be talking about how bad things are? Im just hoping things dont kick off just yet as im away next week 😬

I have enough peri menopausal rage to get through I think.

I don't think anyone wants to talk about things really. I know I am keeping most of this too myself and in real life just cracking on.

This is kind of a safe space.

I've always thought that we need to enjoy every day
Tomorrow is not a given and all that.

We have prepared as much as we can.and will continue to do so and I try not to think of how bad things could get - I would drive myself mad and there is nothing I can do about most of it.

This is a viral tweet that's been translated from Chinese...
When Zelenskyy looks like he's exhausted his last shred of respect for Trump and starts going full-on offensive, you know a consensus has already formed among world leaders about expectations for the midterm elections... After all, Trump single-handedly pulled off the historic spectacle of forcing the president and vice president to split up and campaign for the Republicans in Texas and Alaska, an event dubbed the "Hormuz Miracle"

Associated Press
BREAKING: Federal authorities are investigating letters with "suspicious substances" that have been mailed to congressional and election offices nationwide.
https://apnews.com/article/fbi-postal-service-letters-suspicious-substances-investigation-c90253b9873a27471e63c6f1dcf979e9

Jim Scuitto
Exclusive: Ukraine has run out of missiles for the US-made Patriot air defense system, leaving it more vulnerable to Russian ballistic missile attacks, a source familiar with the situation told CNN on Thursday.

Wes Streeting is in Washington for a difficult meeting. Won't that be fun?

Iran has instructed Hezbollah to prepare for a regional war in the coming days.

Fox News Poll below. Wow!
Corruption in government more of a concern than fuel prices and cost of living. That's eye popping.

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly confirmed Egypt is preparing for worst case scenarios, shifting toward a war economy, and stockpiling fuel, grain, and strategic supplies as regional conflict expands.

Bulgaria apparently considering triggering Article 4 formally
NATO's Article 4 commits member states to consult together whenever any of them believes that its territorial integrity, political independence, or security is threatened.

"alcoholic blow-dried pillock"

😂😂😂

Same. Everyone I’ve mentioned prepping and the state of the world to thinks I’m insane!

Andrew Neil
Follow the money is always a good idea in US elections.
The Republicans have pulled spending away from Georgia and North Carolina Senate races to spend on more contested races (eg Iowa, Texas and, remarkably, Kansas).
Suggests GOP doesn’t reckon cash advantage enough to swing Georgia or N Carolina.
Georgia would be a Democratic hold (Sen. Ossoff, who won in 2020), North Carolina a Democratic gain (Governor Cooper). Democratic candidates currently ahead by 8/9pts in both.

Add in the fact that President Trump is increasingly campaigning in red states he won big in 2024 and it’s clear Republicans are hunkering down to mitigate losses in GOP heartlands rather than aiming to win close battleground states, much less hoping to make gains.

If Trump really thinks he's going to win bigly, he wouldn't even be in these States. It's an interesting detail

Curious Trump rambling today

Trump: "If you don't drink and you take drugs or if you don't smoke, there's no problem. I have other problems; I have some very severe problems, but those are not one of them. I do not want to add them to the list. Do you understand that Todd, I don't want to add those to the list cause If I did, I guarantee I wouldn't be here right now."

He then back tracks and says I've probably just set myself up and the press will ask what problems do you have?

Trump is known for revealing too much. This one seems like a confession.

Over on the '48% of Britons would refuse to fight for their country' someone has already dropped the 'T' (Traitor) word when dual nationalities was brought up as a way to avoid conscription! I could almost see them scrabbling about for a white feather. And this is just over a poll result. More divisiveness.

I mean what’s there to fight for is how a lot of people feel.

The people here are already quietly and not so quietly at war with each other let alone defending them along side themselves for a government that doesn’t seem to help the working people.

I'm waiting on that thread to drop the information that ethnic minorities are 10% more likely to be prepared to go to war for Britain.

They won’t like that 🫣

They could have read the report and figured it out themselves.

Don’t be silly.

That was OTT.

So I'm picking up Italian language comments about supermarket shortages and a lack of diesel.

And someone asked grok what was going on.

Grok replied:
Blockades starting Monday, October 12: former Ilva workers from Taranto are guarding the entrances to the Eni refinery, blocking outgoing tanker trucks. The refinery supplies Puglia, Basilicata, and Calabria. Over 50 of the roughly 300 Eni gas stations already dry by the 13th, up to 80% in Taranto; lines and depleted stocks in many areas. Parallel protests by truckers and farmers against soaring diesel prices are blocking roads, slowing deliveries. Some supermarkets with empty shelves of fresh products. Starting tomorrow, vehicle stoppages in Calabria and Sicily.

So worth keeping an eye on. What seems to be happening in various countries is shortages are being seen as opportunities for strikes and protests. The UK was supposed to have one on a gas rig but I've not seen more on this since.

I suspect this is going to spread and be a 'thing'.

Are they closed?

DH and I discussing the impending doom/apocalypse/crisis/breakdown of society over breakfast. (We are the fun house! 😂)
We broadly agree and always have about the shit hitting the fan. He tends to be more short term optimistic than I am though, which is interesting because he's basically a climate scientist and has worked in related fields all his life. So he's never been under any illusions. He's 79 now and I'm 71.

The discussion arose because of various bits of work we're having done on the garden at the moment, new house, moved this time last year. We've put in a mahoosive water butt which is supposed to collect water from the roof of our annexe but the plumbing wasn't done correctly so the rain is being wasted at the moment and the plumber bloke was asked not to come today because other blokes were coming to do another thing blah blah. They - predictably - are now not coming until Monday.
Anyway I said - so Simon could have come today?
Blah blah- DH - but it's not like we're going to need it full over the winter, is it?
Me: WTF? HAVE YOU SEEN THE NEWS ABOUT THE DROUGHT? WE COULD NEED THAT WATER FOR WASHING! HELL WE COULD NEED TO PURIFY IT AND DRINK IT? ARE YOU MAD? YOU DO REALISE THE SHIT'S HITTING THE FAN NOW, DON'T YOU?

Etc. Poor DH. Good job he's so laid back and knows me well! 😂
I'm fully anticipating societal breakdown every morning, he's still very gung-ho, while it's good it's still good!

https://www.forcesnews.com/services/army/britons-must-prepare-make-sacrifices-war-head-british-army-warns
Britons will soon face a "frank conversation" over the sacrifices needed to prioritise defence and security, the head of the British Army has warned.

General Sir Roly Walker, Chief of the General Staff, said the "business of soldiering" had returned to the national psyche and that the country's days of not having to think about fighting a war were over.

He made the remarks while addressing 700 soldiers in Catterick Garrison, drawn from across 1 (UK) Division, the Army's light, high-readiness global response force.

Addressing what is turning into a principal dilemma for ministers – how to fund defences that meet the threats Britain faces – Gen Sir Roly warned there would have to be sacrifices, and that it was the job of politicians to explain this to the public.

"They're going to try and explain to our citizens that our citizens have got to consent to sacrifices to prioritise defence and security," the general said.

"And then, they're going to ask those citizens, for whom we are not necessarily at the front of their mind, that they too need to play a part in the defence and security of this country.

"They need to understand what we do for them, they need to consent to allow us to do that – which means sacrifices by them – and ultimately, we're going to need them to back us, to back you, to do the one thing that you do, that nobody else gets to do, and that is to take the fight to the enemy."

This is a completely and utterly everyday occurrence in a stable society. Honest gov.

So the question is, where are they taking money from to fund the increase in defence? Starmer announced a £15 billion increase on defence spending, I don't know whether Burnham is going to keep to that promise.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/15-billion-new-funding-boost-to-transform-armed-forces-and-keep-the-uk-safe

That paper sets out which areas of defence get how much, only at the end of the article does it state:

The Government has set out details of how the Defence Investment Plan will be funded through reprioritising public spending, acting within our fiscal rules and without taking resources away from day-to-day spending on frontline services

Quite vague, really? So I put that into Google AI and it came back with:

How the Defence Investment Plan is Funded:

Departmental Capital Reallocations (£10.3 billion): Every government department was asked to contribute at least 1% of its capital budget. 1, 2]

Deeper Contributions: Certain departments with larger capital budgets—such as the Department for Transport (DfT) (including roads) and the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ)—were asked to go further. 1, 2]

Asset Sales and Monetisation: Departments are directed to monetise underused land and buildings from the government’s asset portfolio. 1, 2, 3]

Budget 2026 (£4.7 billion): An additional £4.7 billion over four years will be confirmed at Budget 2026. 1, 2]

Efficiencies and Fraud Recovery: The plan includes a commitment to drive out waste, delay or cancel lower-priority capital projects, and recover £250 million from fraud and error by 2029–30. 1, 2]

Frontline Protection: The government states that day-to-day spending on frontline public services (such as health and education) is protected and unaffected. 1, 2]

Still not sure exactly where the public is going to have to make sacrifices. Higher tax? Council tax bills going up more? I'm no economist, anyone have any insights?

So I pushed the AI further:

To fund the £10.3 billion capital reallocation required by the Defence Investment Plan, almost all government departments must contribute 1p in every £1 (1%) of their capital budgets. 1]
However, two departments are bearing the heaviest financial burden due to their exceptionally large capital profiles:

1. Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ)

The Cut: £2 billion in targeted savings.
The Impact: The department is scaling back its £15 billion Warm Homes Plan and curtailing the £2.7 billion Boiler Upgrade Scheme. While the heat pump grant programme will not be scrapped completely, hundreds of millions of pounds are being stripped from its five-year budget, triggering intense criticism from energy suppliers and the construction sector. 1, 2, 3]

1. Department for Transport (DfT)

The Cut: Up to £700 million in direct savings, specifically targeting roads funding.
The Impact:
The DfT is actively reducing its third Road Investment Strategy (RIS3). This has placed several major infrastructure initiatives on the line, including the potential cancellation or delay of the A38 Derby Junctions and the A46 Newark Bypass. 1, 2]

Lesser but Significant Cuts
While the core public frontline services (like day-to-day NHS operations and schools) are strictly protected under the plan, their infrastructure budgets are still hit by the baseline 1% capital rule: 1]
Department of Health and Social Care: Facing a £570 million infrastructure reduction, putting some future hospital builds or equipment upgrades at risk.
Department for Education: Facing a £314 million baseline capital cut, which will impact long-term school repair budgets. 1]
The remaining £4.7 billion funding shortfall for the defence plan remains unallocated and must be resolved by Chancellor John Healey at the upcoming Budget. 1]

So heat pump grants may be very reduced and I guess we'll have to enjoy our potholes even more than we do now. Make do with older equipment at your hospital and forget about getting a new shiny model. Also, schools, suck it up, you'll have to get by with your rickety buildings (and risk France-style protests).

Should be a fun budget incoming!

Here's the thing. We now need to seriously think about missile and drone defence.

The question isn't how much this will cost to install.

The question is how much it will cost if we don't install this system? Look at where Saudi Arabia is now.

We will have to find the money to do this because honestly, a lack of this defence makes us that vulnerable. A nuclear deterrent isn't obsolete but this is now on a par and as necessary.

Wes Streeting did a speech in Washington DC yesterday.

He said:

UK Defense Secretary Wes Streeting:

The cost of defending peace today can be far smaller than the price of restoring it tomorrow.

Ukraine may be thousands of miles from American shores, but if aggression is rewarded, borders redrawn by force and sovereignty made negotiable, the consequences will not remain confined to Ukraine or to my continent.

This has been a strong year for Ukraine. The front line has barely moved. Ukrainians have gone from being trained to being the ones who are delivering the training.

It's a completely new military era. We need to keep up. We don't have choices here.

You can not have food security or energy security and affordable anything without defence. This is what we all need to wake up to unfortunately. And yes it will have to come from somewhere.

Bulgaria has formally requested NATO reinforcements following the recent drone attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea.

Defence Minister Dimitar Stoyanov confirms that Sofia has requested:

• Combat aircraft and maritime patrol aircraft
• Air-defence missile systems
• Counter-drone systems
• Additional allied forces and a stronger NATO presence

The request comes after multiple attacks on commercial shipping, including strikes inside Romanian territorial waters.

Bulgaria is also seeking a coordinated response with Romania and Türkiye.

NATO has yet to announce a decision on the requested deployments.

I can't believe how foolish the Saudis have been. They've billions of dollars to throw at defence yet they seem wildly unable to defend themselves.

Yes the UK does need to up its defence budget, I would simply like to have it plainly spelt out just what exact sacrifices the public will have to make, but I am guessing that will make people angry and not vote Labour, despite the fact that whoever is in government will need to face up to the threat of war.