Can Farage come back from this?

[noblegiraffe]

Up until recently, it was generally accepted that Nigel Farage had a good chance of being the next Prime Minister.

But now? Even if you forget the corruption investigation and imagine he is cleared of wrongdoing - he made a whiny speech, resigned in a huff, it backfired, and now everyone is laughing at him as he enters a face-off against a bin.

And the fact that he has to take it seriously while Binface very much doesn't take it seriously is making it look even more ridiculous. We know he doesn't have any shame from the stupid Cameos accepts money to do (why, when he can just tap his mates for another 5 million?), but surely even he must have his limits?

Is there now still a serious path to his becoming prime minister after becoming a laughing stock? Or should he bin his political ambitions and fuck off to America to earn the big bucks that he so clearly feels he deserves?

Isn’t it true that cockroaches are the only creatures that would survive a nuclear holocaust?

So sadly the answer is: probably.

People love him because he enables them to express their basest prejudices with impunity. And they’re the kind of people who wouldn’t change their minds if he shot a small child in cold blood. It’s like with Trump supporters: he can do no wrong.

@Persephonia1966 To be honest, I have family members who would vote for Farage or someone like him. They aren't stupid, and they aren't racists. They aren't either (contrary to narrative) particularly hard up or badly done by, by society (although probably would think they are. That's a different thing and it's very hard to do much about because if someone really enjoys the feeling of justified grievance Reform give their voters they aren't going to let anyone take it away. Not by reasoning, and not by improving their already OK lives).

I think this hits the nail on the head in many ways. The psychological attachment to grievance is particularly true. We saw that when it was announced that net migration had fallen so drastically in the last couple of years and Reform supporters' reaction was not joy and encouragement that the government was obviously listening to their concerns and acting upon them, but a combination of sheer denial ("Liebour hiding the true figures!"); moving the goalposts ("the only thin we were ever REALLY concerned with was the small boats!"); and apparently blind terror that they might be deprived of their key thing to complain about. It's telling that in the same timeframe that immigration has been coming down, we've seen a resurgence of the old chestnut about benefit scroungers and the false narrative that the welfare bill has skyrocketed. Lining up a new grievance-focus to take the place of immigrants.

I also agree with your scepticism about the popular narrative that Reform supporters are all dirt poor and just reacting as any person naturally would to a system that has impoverished them. While I'm sure that's true of some individuals, its acceptance as an explanation for general political trends seems to be rooted more in lefty middle class guilt than in reality. A lot of Reform's support seems to be among ex-working class self employed and small business owners who have done well for themselves and probably earn more than many of the public sector employed middle class earnestly trying to "save" them from the likes of Farage.

At some point we just have to accept that some people will subscribe to racist and self-pitying narratives for their own personal reasons, for whatever it is those narrative provide to them, and as you say be relieved there aren't too many of them. Tricky though - in the USA there were enough of them to get Trump elected. Twice.

Agree re Farage.

our political system is a shit show - perfectly highlighted by the current situation where we are waiting for the Prince of the North to ride to London for his coronation.

remind me who voted for Burnham again? 25k people in his constituency that is all you need to become PM.

Every MP, including Starmer and every former prime minister, was only voted into parliament by the electors of their constituency.

And no that's not all you need to become PM. You also need to belong to the governing party and be selected for the job by whatever processes that party uses.

I have been paying attention. I also look at history, and it is very common for polls to show a decline in popularity at this stage of a government. Ditto the protest votes in local elections. Neither are necessarily a predictor of a general election result. As has been admirably demonstrated, anything can happen between now and the next general election. This, of course could go in Farage's favour, but it is more likely that he would shoot himself in the foot as indeed he has done.

I think the whole Burnham debacle has done labour more damage than good as it will soon be evident that he isn't the messiah. Time will tell I suppose.

Judging by how many of those newly elected Reform councillors have resigned since May, I suspect the constituents are beginning to see the light, although there is also an argument that the blind Farage supporters will remain blind despite all the evidence.

I very much h hope Binface wins, it will be hilarious.

Would love to hear what he says about his Clacton electorate in private, I so wish people wouldn't indulge him. How anyone can't see how shallow and insincere he is.

I think the people who vote for him will still vote for him . His demographic are not on MN so not surprising this thread is going one way .
For me the last year has shown what an absolute shitshow politics is . We deserve better . We don’t have a proper centrist party for the majority of normal minded people . I really don’t think Andy Burnhams fleece the rich south to pay for the poor North is going to change anything . You cannot win support by moving money from one group of people to another . Real prosperity comes from growth and we haven’t had that in a long time .

Well... I do have to remind myself I have serious character flaws too. It's not just them. Also, there are people on the left who try to play on a grievance narrative as well (I'm not talking about very salient points re the effects of racism etc. It's more the hyper identity politics we imported from America). But, contrary to popular narrative grievance based hyper-identity politics is always something the right naturally do better at.
In my relatives case they have been retired for a long time, having been paid a big chunk of money to take early retirement at a time when this still happened. And own a home that has massively increased in value etc. They have worked hard in life and had struggles like everyone. But in general I don't think have done that badly. But, and I don't know if it's almost an embarrassment at having an easier life than their own parents, there's a lot of defensiveness against the idea other people might accuse them of not having grafted. And to prove they deserve what they have, they almost need a story of struggle which has morphed, post retirement, into one of ongoing persecution thanks to the papers they read. Also, oddly, me and my siblings sometimes "don't know how lucky we have it" and sometimes the fact our futures have been robbed/our lives are so difficult is another reason to be cross with the government (my life is fine btw).

I don't think that's all Reform voters. Many of them likely will be in genuine economic difficulties. Or have been let down in very tangible ways. But in my family members case, I don't see the point in parties like Labour trying to woo them back. It wouldn't work no matter what they did.

That said they did say to me that they thought Trump was a terrible person. So at least we agree on some things. And I am not talking about horrible people. We get on, I just try to avoid not only.politics.but anything that could turn into comparative suffering.

I agree with this actually. I think he realised that he had a good shot at being PM and he doesn’t want to. His track record of Brexit demonstrates this.

It is also possible that he realises that the good people of Clacton are not as stupid as he thought they were.

I have heard him on several radio call in shows where constituents have called him out on never having held a surgery, not knowing what their issues are, and not advocating for them in the way an MP should.

If he loses to Binface, it will be everyone else's fault, and not his.

People feel less well off now for various reasons, often working full time and still not able to afford a holiday. Governments have done nothing to curb illegal immigration.
Shops are closing down everywhere and some towns are just chock full of vape and charity shops. Our streets are rarely cleaned and there is a lot more anti social behaviour. Businesses are struggling because of high taxes and increased employee benefits which are often unaffordable.
I believe those are all reasons why people support Mr Farage and they have pinned their hopes on him to improve their lives but will rarely admit to it on here as they will automatically be jumped on.