Can Farage come back from this?

[noblegiraffe]

Up until recently, it was generally accepted that Nigel Farage had a good chance of being the next Prime Minister.

But now? Even if you forget the corruption investigation and imagine he is cleared of wrongdoing - he made a whiny speech, resigned in a huff, it backfired, and now everyone is laughing at him as he enters a face-off against a bin.

And the fact that he has to take it seriously while Binface very much doesn't take it seriously is making it look even more ridiculous. We know he doesn't have any shame from the stupid Cameos accepts money to do (why, when he can just tap his mates for another 5 million?), but surely even he must have his limits?

Is there now still a serious path to his becoming prime minister after becoming a laughing stock? Or should he bin his political ambitions and fuck off to America to earn the big bucks that he so clearly feels he deserves?

@Birthdayfeel @TheCurious0range

Agree. It's obvious to us and yet the removed elites in the house of commons can't understand this ?
It's genuinely funny so a few jokes fine but the general treatment of him in the hoc does no-one any favours except F.
We have literally seen this played out before our eyes with trumps election and Clinton etc.
The stupidity is truly mind blowing.

And it is mocking them also esp from the labour party !

Farage supporters in Clacton sound exactly like Trump supporters. They don't care and/or don't understand about the £5m, don't care about how Reform policies will work, don't care they're very likely to be the ones adversely affected by said policies.

The number of interviews with Clacton residents I've seen where it's 'but he got the money before he was an MP' 'all politicians are at it so what's the problem' 'Nigel is the only one listening' etc. When asked questions about Reform policy they bluster and stutter

He would prefer not to win. Not that he can say so. The dawning realisation that he might be tasked with running the country will annoy him.
He wants to lose.

But my question isn't whether he can win Clacton (which I think he will, btw), but whether the path remains open to him becoming Prime Minister, which it looked like it was before.

To become Prime Minister you have to appeal to a far broader audience than the population of Clacton. There are plenty of other places they could vote. Restore is an option (and doing very well around Great Yarmouth), and Rupert Lowe would be delighted to steal votes from Farage. Former Tory voters who were pissed off at the Tory government and shuffled Reformwards might spot that a lot of the people now coming out to support Farage are the same people who pissed them off as Tories.

Reform is very much Farage's party, and Farage's parties have a habit of falling apart. How long will Jenrick settle for going out and making himself look stupid for Farage before he makes his moves against him?

I din't think he was ever going to be PM. He just wouldn't have been able to take the level of scrutiny.

I think it really depends on what Burnham does. If in three years he has welfare spending under control, can reverse some of the tax increases and make people feel better off. I don't think Reform have a chance. If it continues to get worse and taxes go up and up I think that there will be a big anyone but labour vote - then it is a bit of a lottery.

I think given that Labour seem to have accepted the reform argument that Immigration was too high and now seem proud to have brought it down to close to a net neutral possible, and moved to the immigration policies to the right, a lot of wind should be removed from reforms sails anyway.

The reform voters I know (who are mainly very well off city types) just respond to corruption with "good on him. Making a bit of money"

I think he's like trump. He can be sexist, racist, look like a buffoon, say the most stupid things and people still vote for him.

Burnham isn't going to do any of that. He'll move things left, not right. Fwiw I'm a lefty too, but I think Labour have messed this up.

Bin for the win!

It will still be a hard fought race. Clacton (as well as other impoverished sea-side towns) has been neglected for a long time. There's no industry, cuts to services, it's difficult to travel, and the infrastructure and buildings look tired and run down. The people are largely good people with little hope for the future and Farage made them feel as though he cared. (Not true, but he feels relatable to them)

Some Farage supporters are willing to admit they're disappointed that he's never there. Perhaps if Binface got on the front line in Clacton, and made it clear he would actually move there and try his best, he'd have a chance.
Hell, with a head that large, he'd be able to handle a pint with the rest of them, I reckon!

Best outcome IMO would be for the by-election to go ahead, and for Count Binface to win it.
That would restore my faith in good old British democracy.

I really hope that Burnham does focus on how he will make life better for us all, rather than the constant "we may be shit but their shitter" politics we seem to have fallen into.

I would be amazing to come to the next election with a reason to positively vote for someone rather than just because we dislike the other guy. I think that was the undoing of Starmer - a small proportion of people voted for Starmer, most voted not for the Tories.

If we're still in the same position of any one but at the next election it feels like we could have absolute lottery of a coalition government, as people split to reform, restore, the greens.

Agree. There’s talk that Burnham wants to put business rates up - at the very time businesses are on their knees. His devolution ideas won’t grow the economy before the next election and we know he won’t be given much time to prove himself.

Totally agree. And everyone stating all the reasons why his fan base will still vote for him, are correct too.
But in the meantime I am really enjoying him being made to look farcical and having a good laugh at his expense. And his supporters might not care but he very much does. And that’s marvellous.

I am not a supporter. But I did admire his dedication and focus on the issues and problems with the UK EU relationship when he was an MEP.

But I don't think he is a leader. I don't think he builds consensus. He falls out with people easily.

Also I think the leading people in Reform alongside him are very suspect. Jenrick is appalling and the others seem unimpressive to me.

His approach to the £5m gift is extraordinary. No one gives someone £5m without expecting to buy some influence in return.

He's now gone from someone promising to clean up politics to becoming one of the biggest snouts in the trough. It doesn't really matter whether he did it venally or not. It's the impression it gives others and the poor judgement on his part that is remembered.

Do we want PMs with bad judgement? If course not.

I hope personally that we will see the decline of Reform now and a revitalised Conservative party under Kemi that has learned it's lessons from the terrible Johnson era in particular.

I love Binface. There is a clever mind and a humane soul underneath that steely exterior.

Given his argument that it was fine to take £5m as he wasn't an MP at that moment, are we sure he's not just spent it all and thinks he can just briefly pop out from being an MP for a quick bribe break?

Anyone who ever wondered why things went so very badly wrong in Germany in the ‘30s and early 40’s may recognise a pattern here.

A front man with a gift for emotional oratory appealing an audience of people who felt they were being crushed and no one was listening.

The “ £5M no strings donation “ says to me that the people who didn’t want anti trust avoidance rules to be adopted in the UK continue to use Farage to appeal to the disaffected masses to stir them up with emotion rather than actual policies.

They have already identified their first ‘those others’ claiming immigration is stealing jobs when the underlying issue is public services being underfunded rather than the many many immigrants contributing to the economy. And in the case of the NHS directly propping it up.

I rely tremble to think where we might be heading.

So who are these people "feeling crushed and no one is listening " are they feeling it or are they actually being crushed ?

Dedication and focus when he was an MEP? He was hardly ever there! He is still taking the extremely generous pension in spite of all his Brexit campaigning.

As for the idea that he selflessly gave up a lucrative career in the City to campaign for his beliefs, oh please. He has made a mint out of his political position without the tiresome business of turning up at a workplace day after day.

I don't get his appeal at all. Clearly some people think he is wonderful in spite of the innumerable red flags. Surely even they have their limits, though.

Would they say the same about ed Milliband and his links to companies on the net zero ? Making a bit of money ? Pushing us to net zero and hobbling us all ?

Let’s hope not!

Is he a great communicator? Because I watched his speech and thought it was a rambling mess. He had an opportunity to speak to the whole country directly and it was such a poor show. He’s not exactly Churchill, is he?

There was a report out last week about the areas of the country where opportunities are the poorest for white, working class children. There was certainly an obvious overlap with Reform-voting areas.

It was boring, whiny and way too long.

In Clacton? Yes, I think they have a claim to that. I read a recent article - cannot now recall where - that pointed out the situation that looking at Clacton as a population in health terms could be quite shocking. This is not whether you think whether people are deserving, or gaming the system, but if you take it at face value the percentage of working age people living on disability benefits there is one of the highest in the UK. It's supposedly 2 in 11 people. The wider area of Tendring (quite a large area) has been called deprived (at least) since I was working there in a large 16 plus education provider in about 2003. Course demand was really high, could be free to 16-18 year olds, and ran waiting lists but it was extremely hard to persuade anyone of any age to travel there to take the Clacton-based places that were very much available.

If looking outside of Clacton, presumably people who feel crushed and dumped have seen something in Reform/Restore. There are probably more areas - small, medium, or large - like Clacton and Tendring overall dotted around in the UK than there are Londons or Northern Powerhouses.

For other affluent parts of Essex, look at the overnight swing - away from Lab and Lib - that took place in the last Council elections. We're living with that now in the county that stretches out where you come inland from Clacton. Promised solidity, feels very much like an experiment to some.