Labour needing help from IMF according to economists

[CarCostingMe]

Labour may need help from the IMF, economists warn

Headlines like this seem to be popping up more and more. Is there anyone out there who still thinks that benefits don't need to be cut or is everyone now pretty accepting of the fact that big change is coming whether we like it or not.
All welfare benefits need to be cut (inc the triple lock) and the NHS needs made into an insurance based system too.

I have to admit I have started to make loose plans of how I will cope. I'm not on any benefits but I'm due to get my state pension in about 15years and it's fully paid up already. I hope I will still be getting it but am thinking it might be deliberately frozen and eroded in the future so worth less than it currently is.

I am actually ok (ish) with an insurance based health system as this one is not working now and I am fed up with the stress of trying to navigate it/wait for things.
It's not that I want to pay for healthcare but vast parts of it just don't work anymore.

For everyone else (assuming no-one is burying their heads in the sand still) how will you manage. Any tips gratefully received as I have no family to fall back on.

For now my plans are sell house and live in flat to release equity or stay in house and take out equity release (no kids to leave an inheritance to).

If this is not enough have a lodger as well (I will buy a 2 bed flat min). Not ideal but if needs must.
I have private pensions so they will be getting spent carefully and I have to admit I have already started to be very careful with my spending as I feel change is imminent.

I watched an interesting but depressing podcast about how the rest of the world was watching the UK as an example of what not to do (ie we used to be a great nation and now we are paying more to borrow on the bond market than Greece who the IMF bailed out in 2010.

In a country with a growing ageing population and falling birth rate common sense tells me that we should be welcoming a family of four potential tax payers with open arms.

Well your obviously not very good at maths then. Because an adult of say age 45 who gets a house and all services which this country has like the nhs and education will only work another approximately 23 years then retire. So they will not contribute enough to the country as a family before retirement.

They’ll contribute more than nothing and the vast majority of people pay tax until they die. The two children will contribute all their working lives.

Starmer only acts tough when it’s the UK’s white middle class - we all know this.

For everyone else, he is an utter coward.

Well Labour have plenty of experience in making a mess of the Economy. Re the 1970 s with 14 over cent inflation,massive unemployment, huge increase in oil prices, and no economic growth.

The then Prime Minister,Jim Callaghan had to run to the IMF several times for.loans ton bail out this country.

A lot of this debt was accrued during COVID when millions of people were paid 80% of their wages to sit at home and do nothing.

So we may all be back to the three day week , power cuts and eating your tea by candlelight.

I wonder when Labour’s praetorian guard on MN will realise the game is up.

Or are they fanatics who will never accept that this Labour government has been an utter disaster?

How short memories are. It was only last year that he refused to support Trump’s war in Iran.

How’s Chagos going?

To be fair on the 1970s the economy was plunged into crisis by a reduction in global oil of 5% and the knock in costs of that! It wasn't just the UKs policies by themselves that caused issues. Of course, the recent oil crisis has reduced global oil production by 20% and whilst things aren't great we aren't having to have rolling power cuts and a three day week. Bloody Net zero/green energy policies, what have renewables ever done for the world etc etc etc.

True. And the 90/00s version is now persona non grata because even he has criticised Starmer and co.

But our debt pile today is growing faster than everywhere except Botswana. Doesn’t that give you cause for alarm?

Yes needs reform.

Lack of gun control I would add to the list.

Well, that’s alright then. Let’s ignore his 999+ other incompetences…🙄

How do you suppose Starmer (or Burnham) and Reeves will get any reform past their back benches - given last year’s fiasco.

And the 'Tech bros' that are funding him

They are not keen on SM bans, prefer to undress young girls.

If the IMF do get called in get ready for major reforms
Reductions in Public Sector wages allied with huge layoffs in public sector jobs
Cuts to pensions and freezes on benefits
Reductions in healthcare and public sector spending
Increases on VAT, fuel, tobacco and alcohol taxes
Raising the retirement age and tightening eligibility for pensions
Making it easier for firms to hire and fire and lowering minimum wages.
Privatisation of Gov't assests

Just look at what the IMF did to Greece, the economy contracted 25%, unemployment hit close to 30%, but after 10 years debt is still 146% of GDP but they they are now one of the fastest growing economies in Europe at 2.1% and unemployment at 8%.

They still have problems, but are in a much better place than the UK.

Much of Greece's growth is fired by the growth in property prices. Which show economic growth but don't necessarily benefit people or filter into higher tax revenues. It is quite dangerous to have an economy that politicians say is doing well, but that people don't feel is doing well. Plus, it's a lot easier to have 2.1% growth if you first severely contract the economy by 25%. What Greece still doesn't have is much of a manufacturing sector- it's all based on services and tourism. Which makes it harder to increase productivity long term. I like Greece but I would dispute they are in a better place than us right now. Though they are in a better place than they were in 2008. Also employment is often services and low paid and many Greek young people leave for other places (more than the UK young do). If all our unemployed young people left we would no longer have an unemployment problem on paper but it would be a bad thing.

That's not to say Greece didn't need reforms. But the UK is not Greece in 2008. We really don't have a bloated public service sector. That might have been true in 1970 but a lot has changed since then. There really isn't much to cut. Where there is waste/overspending it's where the public sector meets with the private sector (and gets ripped of because you have a group of people for whom profit/efficiency of spending isn't the main priority dealing with one for whom profit is everything). Renegotiating and changing contracts and the way services are provided would help (increasing more oversight). As would doing more in house.

Contributing more than nothing will bankrupt the country.
I'm 45 . I've been paying taxes all my working life . So I've contributed towards my daughters education as she has grown up and towards things like the nhs if and when I need it.
The two 45 year old immigrants and the 2 children moving to this country have not paid a penny and will never work long enough to contribute. We need to stop accommodating them and providing services.

I’ve been paying taxes since before you were born and will continue to do so until I die. We have an ageing population and a falling birth rate. If you want your pension in 27 years time there’s going to have to be a bigger working population than there could possibly be without immigration.

And also the inflation-fuelled Barber Boom under the (Conservative) Heath government of 1970-74, ie, Lettuce Liz #1.

I am guessing the total amount you have paid is comparatively small, versus your peers.

Call it a hunch.

You’d be wrong. As always.

I agree with this. I hate the fact this incompetent government came into office and immediately gave huge pay rises to groups on strike. They increased benefits when it was crystal clear the UK economy could not afford do so. They continue to focus in a demented way on Netflix Zero. They are bankrupting the UK. RR has done untold damage yet is oblivious. The Labour backbenches control KS as he's so weak. I can't wait to get rid of them.

I am confident I am correct.