Is bankruptcy inevitable now for the UK

[BringOnTheHandyMan]

In the most layman of terms the UK is actually broke.

Every month we cannot pay the interest on our outstanding debt and thus have to borrow more. (Note this is not repaying the capital, just the interest)

The rate we pay to borrow used to be quite low and that is not the case anymore.
The bond markets have lost faith in the UK and charge us a rate that reflects it.

We have systems we can no longer afford (welfare, NHS etc)
We have little to no growth
We have inflation issues (so printing money is out)
Raising or cutting interest rates is problematic due to having both growth and inflation issues together
Our politicians are scrapping like rats in a barrel and even prior to that they seem incapable of making hard decisions or even facing up to the mess we are in.

We do actually need a PM that stands up and says okay folks we are in deep shit. We are broke. Actually worse than that. In debt and unable to pay even the interest.
So any borrowing we do must be for investing/growing the economy only. All spare money must be used for paying down debt or investing/growing the economy. That means for the foreseeable future all state funding is scrapped. We would enter a period of being very much a 'poor country' and acting like it. If we worked really hard we might be able to turn it around but it would take years, hard decisions and many, many sacrifices.

Since I can't see any party being able to actually do that. Then I honestly don't see how we can go anywhere except an IMF bailout. Then they will play the tough guys and cut the lot anyway.

I try to plan for my retirement but honestly it's sort of impossible.

For those with public sector pensions I wouldn't be sure you will get it paid
For those with private defined contribution pensions, the stock market is vastly overpriced just now and your pension is likely to fall once the AI bubble bursts.
State pension - yip not convinced we'll be getting that
Costs to be budgeted for - healthcare but how much?
Downsize my house - perhaps but will house prices tumble making this impossible.

Does anyone think that any government (regardless of party) can fix the country. If not what happens. The UK used to have no NHS or welfare so do we just go back to that. How long will it be until the wheels come off?

Lots of threads about which benefits should be cut etc but nobody seems to be shouting that actually it ALL needs to be cut regardless of what hardship it causes.

Yes but unfortunately, you cannot have a sustainable tax system looking at middle income earners to fill this gap.

The IMF don’t point out what the consequences would be. But they would be severe for those on low incomes because housing is so expensive, and you would have families not in flats or houses but rooms and HMOs. Housing will not get magically cheap under these cuts.

Suggest any of that and right of politics are up arms!

They want Welfare and PIP cut but when they realise this means, dropping Triple lock, less free childcare and less SENDs provision, they scream from the roof tops!

It ALL has to come from "Tracy and her 5 kids" in a council flat :(

On longer term "Low earners" you really mean women doing PT care work because the costs (running a car) and stress of this work, make it unsustainable (or other unpalatable work)

Why on earth do you think I would be gutted if the UK started to prosper. I live here. I remember how good the NHS worked in the eighties and nineties. I'm looking forward to getting my state pension. If someone can wave a magic wand then great.

However I also know the IMF seems to upgrade and downgrade our growth quite regularly. I don't know how they do it but last time we were downgraded, before that upgraded. Either way the numbers are not exactly amazing. If I see our growth going up for a prolonged period and staying higher then I will get a bit more optimistic. You can't honestly think we are out of the woods. The IMF are also urging the UK to cut welfare.

Telegraph says Britain nearing peak tax, warns IMF

I'm a fairly ordinary pensioner. I'm 70, in good health, with a house mortgage free. The only thing that makes me different from most of the population is that I have been self employed since I was 35. Every penny in my pension is based on my contributions to my retirement fund. I took it seriously from the first day I left employment, and I paid in everything I could afford every single year. So now, our pension fund looks healthy. I would be extremely peevish if any Chancellor decided that it should be pruned to pay for people who could not bother to provide for their future.

It would cost trillions and take decades to build a viable canal to bypass the strait of Hormuz, it’s not going to happen. Pipelines are easy for Iran to target. The easiest and cheapest option is to pay the tolls and that’s what they’ll do because the US is unable to lift Irans blockade. The whole political landscape of the region is changing

Yes that's what happened prior to the NHS/welfare. They got taken in by family, or they went to the workhouse or they died.

If the NHS is privatised i would doubt they will be allowed to hang out in A&E. It will be show your insurance details before you get past reception.

If we end up broke most people will be concerned with themselves and their own family. They won't care what happens to strangers.

I say this not to be cruel but because I find it strange that people keep posting 'we can't let this happen' - Did you see what happened during the covid shortages. People were ratting out their neighbours, buying up all the toilet rolls and generally making sure they and their families were okay. They couldn't give a toss what happened to anyone else. This always happens when resources become scarce. Charity goes out the window and it becomes dog eats dog.

they may not want to but what choice do they have? The US isn’t capable of loosening Irans grip on the strait or defend the gulf states from attack, for the first time it’s starting to look like a liability for the gulf states to be allied to the US rather than an advantage and in the cold calculus of geo politics that almost certainly means a change in the political landscape of the region.
Iran is demanding that the gulf states start trading in Chinese Yuan rather than the dollar, a move that China is certainly supporting. China recently announced that it wants the Yuan to replace the dollar as the global reserve currency. This isn’t going to end well for the US

If you know Dubai at all, you will perhaps understand that Dubai quite likes tackling huge expensive infrastructure projects and DELIVERING them. Dubai Metro, up and running, Dubai canal, creating desirable residential waterside properties is also going well. Dubai works very hard to create nice environments where people want to live. The farmers' markets in the parks are enjoyable, even if you only want lettuce.

Yeah….. I have no idea what that has to do with my post though? Dubais oil revenue is tiny, around a billion dollars a year, why would it want to invest trillions in an infrastructure program which would take thousands of years to see it recoup its investment?
Also over 90% of its fresh water comes desalination plants, if Iran choose to strike them, Dubai would be finished as a viable city, the safest choice is to make peace with Iran

Just saying that Dubai will do it regardless. Dubai will spend the upfront investment, even if the payback is not instantly obvious.

How the heck did we get derailed on to the Iran conflict on this thread?

Because the Hormuz Strait is kind of crucial? Bit of a choke point for trade.

I dunno, probably more interesting

Again, you are very naive if you think it wouldn't impact you. And I'm not just talking about the superficial George Young principle.

I didn't say it wouldn't impact me. Where did you get that from?

I would need private health insurance for starters so that would impact me.

I'm sure other things would impact me - for example if they change the state pension or do away with it altogether

I think because if you're a life-long frequent user of the NHS and reliant on affordable healthcare and, as things currently stand, health insurance is currently prohibitive/impossible, you wouldn't be so glib at the prospect of the social fabric of the country potentially being ripped up. And it is always worth remembering that things can change in an instant and you could be in a position where you need that support.

From what I read there is room - just not as much as we all might like. So it will have to be both tax increases and cuts to spending.

I don't understand how the majority of UC payments can be made time limited though. Disabled people and their carers surely don't get time limited help in other countries if their disabilities aren't time limited? Young mums to under 3s are already time limited and most people on unemployment benefit will find a job eventually but not quite sure what happens to those that don't?

Your OP was almost gleeful at the prospect of an IMF bailout, in subsequent posts you said you wished the IMF would step in.....

We have growth, do you and others welcome this? not a chance, just more negativity, UK has grown more in the last 22months than it did in the 22months prior to the July GE.

Tories had the chance over 14years to show us what the 'right can do and made a complete pigs ear of it, even slashed Defence spend, despite Crimea and Ukraine.

Everyone knows that Welfare needs to be reduced and some ways to do that is through increased help for people with MH issues, addressing NHS waiting lists, building more social housing so less people being subsidised to live in private housing.

But the above takes money and investment.

Some of the biggest Welfare spends are on Childcare, SEND and Pensions.... how would you cut these & still get elected? or is it more a case of "Get Lab to do this instead of the Tories/Reform in 2029" We can blame them, whilst not reversing any of it.

As to the NHS working well in 80s and 90s? you re joking? it was an utter mess, my mum was working in it, fragmented, under funded and a Govt that drew up plans to privatise and sell it off.

I think posters are just relieved at the thought of finally hitting rock bottom and confronting our issues rather than clinging on by our fingertips all the time and chanting ‘at least we’re still here’.

Tax increases and cuts to spending was meant to be the Labour economic policy. The tax increases were implemented, however the spending cuts were opposed by the Labour backbenchers.

The resulting tax increases (as any tax increases do) then slowed economic growth.

What slowed the economic growth over the last 14 years of the Tories?

The 10 years before Covid, it was terrible, post Covid it was even worse.

There is fundamentally something wrong with the country, the way we work, the way we managed our public services, the way we handled public infrastructure... look at HS2?

Now will be the most expensive HS rail in the world & wont even be that fast.

Then there is procurement: Defence, NHS, Land Registry and HMRC.... we always get it wrong.

It goes beyond tax and spending cuts

This.

Total re think needed. There is no way to make the existing system work.

Sometimes when I read through threads such as these, it saddens me that many posters really seem to dislike/hate pensioners with a vengeance, and want them to be particularly targeted when Governments need to save money. I think they would like it if pensioners were summarily euthanised on reaching a certain age, so the resulting savings could be re-routed to them!

Sadly youth unemployment is up again due to Labour’s policies.

Similar could be said about the sick and disabled. Grim!