Labour isn't working - Thread 19

[TheNuthatch]

A chat thread for those who don't like this Labour government. 💙

We are bracing for the budget 😬

The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.

Previous thread
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5441764-labour-isnt-working-thread-18?utm_campaign=thread&utm_medium=share

There has been a spike in gilts as detailed upthread, so the markets were also surprised by this.
I'm pretty sure they don't do their forecasts and predictions based on a headline in the DM.

Yep.
A few weeks ago, Labour peer Harriet Harman said it was "deplorable" if the government were floating tax rises that they weren't going to implement. They make me sick.

Morning fellow non-workers!

Political Currency very good this morning - a lengthy chat about the clusterfuck of Downibg Street briefings and Ed Balls had a very interesting, and plausible, theory about it all.

Summary:

Kier signed off on a vague briefing strategy to ward off challengers without naming names.

Said briefing was done via the McSweeney camp.

Enter stage left, Darren Jones who HATES McSweeney. Jones (or his team) start the rumours of Streeting et al being the ones rattling their sabres in an attempt to make Sweeney look incompetent, and it all gets mixed together with in the press.

I’ve never understood gilts and shares and hedge funds , yet I did get an O level in Economics in 1981 ,but that was mostly about the big four banks and imports and exports etc! Lol
On a more serious note, they will need to put something up surely ? Probably cars , gambling maybe ? What’s plan b ?

It’s the yields on gilts which matter - they increase, so does the cost of government borrowing.

As it happens, I suspect that the markets will calm down during the course of today.

The govt issues gilts to raise money. When investors buy a gilt, they are lending money to the government for a set period of time. As the gilt matures, say 10 years, the investor gets their money back with interest. Long term gilts are seen as a safe investment.
When gilt yields spike, it mean that investors want more in return for lending the money, so the government's cost to borrow goes up.

I hope that's right anyway 😂
I'm no expert, hoping others will correct anything I've got wrong.

That sounds plausible. Will listen to PC later on.

👍This is where I get confused.

It’s reported that Reeves received a better forecast from the OBR - hence she dropped the income tax hike.

To be continued….

My thing on Labour’s fuck ups is when the markets jump more taxes are needed to pay for debt servicing.

While people are explaining economics, could someone please explain why productivity is so low in the UK? I feel like I've been reading about low productivity rates for my entire adult life, but I remain totally ignorant about both the causes and potential remedies.

Many thanks!

I don't even feel relieved this morning, just angry and depressed. How dare she draw this out so agonizingly like this? I honestly think I will probably never vote Labour again in my life, this government is unforgivably bad

It’s possible. But I have strong doubts. The papers and broadcasters were approached by various senior figures in a campaign that named Streeting. It would be very difficult to engineer a change like that to a McSweeney scheme without him knowing or being asked about it.

True.
Whatever happened, Starmer is lying.

Yep. All the kite flying and the conference. Jokers

Nobody knows why productivity is so low @Noodledog - on the nhs Paul Johnson ex IFS has written about this. Some theories that lack of managers in NHS has led to more cancelled appts even though staff levels are much higher,

productivity is possibly the uk’s biggest problem underpinning poor salaries

labour’s story is poor productivity is related to poor infrastructure and lack of investment (public and private) holding back growth. Peston argues that point.

Phew! Very relieved to get a 👍 from you on my explanation of gilts 😂😂

That needs qualifying, the accrued debt is not affected, its debt taken out at the time of that yield increase.

ATM 10 & 30year gilts have increased by 0.07% today, again on debt taken taken at the time, not on the overall debt, tomo the yield will drop again, anyone who takes into account daily falls and rises, is a fool, its not how it works, look at the long term trends and for almost all of the western world, Govt bonds and uk gilts are increasing yields.
Most of our debt was taken out years ago, when yields were much low.

Whats interesting is pre Truss, we were middling of developed countries, we have never returned to that and our yields are amongst the highest in the developed world.

We need to get that debt down, Labour have made another mistake, for electoral reasons, not to increases income taxes or so it appears.

This thread came up and i saw the question, i'm not interested in tribal politics, on either side, so i wont be coming back, you'll be pleased to know.

Beth Rigby of Sky has written

"I understand Downing Street has backed down amid fears about the backlash from disgruntled MPs and voters."

If we need to get the debt down that’s not happening with this lot.

The last budget added £70bn in borrowing plus taxes.

We gain no pleasure losing interesting posters @Southernecho all we ask is that we are treated with the respect we try to give new posters. Recently, we have had a few people who have made it their mission to try and get this thread shut down because it does not align with their own political opinions. So please stay if you've a mind to.

I'm thinking of upping my 50p IMF bailout by easter to £1.00!!

Thanks, I think I'm getting it now. It's such a complicated subject. I'm used to balancing books for month's end without taking into account interest on debt from X number of yeasr ago.☺