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Ukraine Invasion: Part 59

1000 replies

MagicFox · 17/10/2025 22:11

Well, it’s thread 59.

Thanks to all regular contributors, especially those doing the daily hard work. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

D. Please keep on topic

OP posts:
Thread gallery
441
blueshoes · 16/11/2025 04:12

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-15-2025/

Key Takeaways

  1. Russian forces used weather conditions to exploit vulnerabilities in Ukraine’s drone-based battlefield defenses in the Novopavlivka direction, highlighting Ukraine’s need for traditional weapons systems.
  2. Ukrainian forces appear to be trying to replicate Russia’s battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign on a limited scale.
  3. Russia’s large-scale production of glide bombs and Shahed-type drones will continue to facilitate Russia’s BAI campaign on the front.
  4. North Korea continues to provide military support to Russia and may be preparing to provide Russia with drones in the future.
  5. Russian forces continue their BAI campaign against Ukrainian railway infrastructure, seeking to disrupt Ukrainian rear logistics hubs to facilitate battlefield gains.
  6. Russia’s long-range drone and missile strike tactics are precisely targeting gas infrastructure in Ukraine during the heating season.
  7. Russia appears to be setting conditions to deploy involuntarily called up reservists to occupied Ukraine, likely in an effort to commit them to combat operations.
  8. Russian forces continue to boast about executing Ukrainian servicemembers.
  9. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Novopavlivka, and Hulyaipole and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 16/11/2025 10:01

Every so often the Ukrainian outlets announce happily that Atesh or Russian rebels have attacked the railways which comes down to a signal box or junction box, and I couldn't help thinking that it was not all that hard to repair especially as the Russians have planned for it.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 16/11/2025 10:08

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Ukraine confirms withdrawal (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-pulls-troops-from-novovasylivske-amid-russian-advances-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast/) from Novovasylivske amid Russian advances in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from the village to "more favorable defensive positions," the Southern Defense Forces confirmed on Nov. 15.

⚡️Zelensky pledges rapid reform of state energy firms (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-pledges-rapid-reform-of-state-energy-firms-amid-major-government-scandal-calls-for-new-leadership/) amid major government scandal, calls for new leadership.
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Nov. 15 that Ukraine is beginning a full "reboot" of its key state-owned energy enterprises, involving management overhauls and comprehensive financial audits.

⚡️Ukraine strikes (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-strikes-ryazan-oil-refinery-hits-multiple-other-russian-military-targets-general-staff-says/) Ryazan oil refinery, hits multiple other Russian military targets, General Staff says.
Ryazan Governor Pavel Malkov confirmed the attack and said one enterprise, whose name he did not disclose, sustained damage.

⚡️S-400 launchers and radars (kyivindependent.com/4-s-400-launchers-2-radars-hit-by-sbu-drones-in-russias-novorossiysk-source-says/) hit by SBU drones in Russia's Novorossiysk, source says.
Satellite images obtained by the Kyiv Independent show that four destroyed launchers of the S-400 anti-aircraft missile system, and two high-end radar systems.

⚡️US delays sanctions on Russian oil giant Lukoil (kyivindependent.com/us-delays-sanctions-on-russian-oil-giant-lukoil-bloomberg-reports/), Bloomberg reports.
The company entered negotiations to sell its foreign assets shortly before requesting that U.S. officials postpone sanctions.

⚡️Kyiv, Moscow reach deal (kyivindependent.com/kyiv-moscow-reach-deal-on-prisoner-exchange-to-free-1-200-ukrainians/) on prisoner exchange to free 1,200 Ukrainians.
As a result of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, the two sides have agreed to move forward with the Istanbul-based agreements and carry out the release of 1,200 Ukrainian prisoners, National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov said on Nov. 15.

⚡️Polish president signs social aid law (kyivindependent.com/polish-president-says-he-has-signed-social-aid-law-for-ukrainian-refugees-for-last-time/) for Ukrainian refugees for 'last time.'
Karol Nawrocki argued that the current provisions are "unfair to Poles," effectively equating Polish citizens with citizens of another country.

⚡️Pro-Ukrainian partisans sabotage (kyivindependent.com/pro-ukrainian-partisans-sabotage-rail-equipment-in-russian-occupied-zaporizhzhia-oblast-group-claims/) rail equipment in Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, group claims.
The sabotage operation blocked Russian military trains, making them a clear target for a Ukrainian attack, the Atesh partisan group said. [ @notimagain I suppose that carefully coordinated with an attack on a held-up train, that could be very useful]

⚡️Widow of Chornobyl's first victim killed (kyivindependent.com/natalia-khodymchuk-widow-of-chornobyls-first-casualty-dies-following-kyiv-attack/) by Russian attack on Kyiv 39 years later.
Nataliia Khodemchuk, widow of Valerii Khodemchuk, the first victim of the 1986 Chornobyl disaster, died in Kyiv after suffering severe injuries in a mass overnight Russian attack on Nov. 14–15.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson
■ 5th highest number of engagements, but casualties remain below the 7-day average
■ Notable equipment losses, including the 8th highest drone losses
■ Overnight attacks: triple-digit, including three missiles; interception rate could

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 16/11/2025 10:16

UNITED24 Telegram Highlights

Germany is allocating €150 million to purchase American weapons for Ukraine under the PURL program, the country’s Defense Minister said.
Boris Pistorius emphasized that this support is necessary because Russia is carrying out massive attacks on energy infrastructure, aiming to “crush Ukrainian resistance” ahead of its fourth military winter.

The US sanctions exemption that allows Hungary to continue importing Russian oil also applies to supplies to Slovakia, but it will be valid for only one year, Slovak Economy Minister Denisa Saková said.

‘We get a warning overnight’: Ukrainian power plant workers keep going despite Russian attacks.
The Associated Press showed the aftermath of strikes on a Ukrainian thermal power plant.
Workers at one of DTEK’s thermal power plants say the facility has suffered its worst destruction since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, following one of the latest attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. t.me/United24media/37278

The US Treasury Department has extended permission for transactions with Lukoil’s foreign business until December 13, Bloomberg reports.
Previously, the permit was valid until November 21. The department’s website now indicates that Lukoil is allowed to sell or operate equipment at its foreign gas stations until December 13.
The license also covers transactions with Rosneft related to the Karachaganak field project in Kazakhstan. Previously, such transactions with Lukoil and Rosneft were only permitted through CPC and Kazakhstan’s Tengizchevroil.
Sanctions affecting Lukoil’s Bulgarian enterprises have also been postponed for six months, until April 29, 2026.
According to Bloomberg, US authorities aim to provide more time to close deals and explore alternative ownership structures, ensuring non-Russian companies can gain control of the assets. The agency noted that buyers from the US, Europe, and the Middle East have recently shown interest in Lukoil’s foreign portfolio.
Reuters reported that in 2024, Lukoil’s foreign assets were estimated at $22 billion.

Bilytske, Dobropillia district, Donetsk region. Another ghost town turned into ruins by the Russians. https://t.me/United24media/37283

Defense forces have cut off enemy logistics routes on the approaches to Pokrovsk.
An airstrike destroyed the road connecting Selidove and Pokrovsk. As a result, the Russians lost the ability to use this route to push light equipment toward the city.
In other areas, Ukrainian forces are installing additional engineering barriers. Meanwhile, the occupation command is sending suicide bombers to clear these obstacles.

On the night of November 16, Russian occupation forces attacked energy facilities in the Odesa region, damaging a solar power plant.
Fires broke out at the impact site, but rescuers quickly extinguished them.

UNITED24Media

Bilytske, Dobropillia district, Donetsk region. Another ghost town turned into ruins by the Russians.

https://t.me/United24media/37283

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 16/11/2025 10:17

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

A Week of Escalation: Russia ramps up attacks as Ukraine hits back deep inside Russia, top ministers resign in a widening corruption probe, and global allies scramble to bolster support ahead of winter.

Ukraine’s defense minister has announced new military contracts incorporating long-term leave. What problems do they intend to solve, who stands to benefit and why are some concerned? (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/64263)

Russia fails yet again to meet Putin’s deadlines for capturing Pokrovsk and Kupyansk — the timeline has been postponed once more — Zelensky

New Contracts with Long-Term Leave – Will They Help the Armed Forces of Ukraine?

Ukraine’s defense minister has announced new military contracts incorporating long-term leave. What problems do they intend to solve, who stands to benefit and why are some concerned?

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/64263)

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 16/11/2025 10:18

My bad - Ragnar's numbers analysis is from yesterday not today. Today's hasn't been released yet.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 16/11/2025 10:20

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇬🇷🇺🇦 Ukraine has reached an agreement with Greece on a new gas supply route.
According to President Zelensky, the deal will allow Ukraine to maximize the diversification of import routes and strengthen the country’s security ahead of the cold season.
The president also noted that Ukraine has already secured nearly €2 billion in financing for gas imports. This will help compensate for the loss of domestic production caused by Russian strikes on infrastructure.
Zelensky added that Ukraine is financing imports with the support of European partners and banks under European Commission guarantees, as well as with the participation of Ukrainian banks and Norway. Active work with U.S. partners is also ongoing.

Overnight on November 16, Russia attacked Ukraine with drones and ballistic missiles.
According to Ukraine’s Air Force, air defense units intercepted 139 out of 176 UAVs. Thirty-seven attack drones struck 14 locations, and debris from downed drones fell in two additional places.
🔴Odesa region. Governor Oleh Kiper reported nighttime damage to energy facilities, including a solar power plant. Fires were quickly extinguished, and there were no casualties. Critical infrastructure is operating on backup power.
🔴Sumy region. Around 01:00, three Shahed drones hit the territory of one of the community’s elder districts. A commercial building and a private shed caught fire. Power lines and approximately 15 households were damaged.
🔴Dnipropetrovsk region. Three districts came under attack. Homes, cars, and outbuildings were damaged. In the Synelnykove district, a fire broke out and infrastructure was hit. In the Nikopol area, Russia shelled the region with artillery and FPV drones, damaging an educational institution and residential buildings.

‼️Attention. Sensitive content. Occupation forces likely executed two Ukrainian soldiers in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Preliminary reports indicate that this happened on the outskirts of Zatyshshia. Twenty minutes after the killing, the occupiers were eliminated by an FPV drone strike. t.me/liveukraine_media/35816

🇲🇩 Moldova has received Lukoil’s fuel terminal free of charge.
Because of U.S. sanctions, the Russian oil company Lukoil has handed over its fuel terminal to Moldova at no cost, since it can no longer operate there normally.
At the same time, the Moldovan government reached an agreement with a Romanian company on temporary fuel supplies for the airport. The next step will be buying out the assets and infrastructure that still belong to Lukoil.

🇫🇮 Finland has deported a Russian Wagner fighter who illegally entered its territory.
Yevhen “Kanello” was detained on June 17 after crossing the Finnish–Russian border illegally. He claimed he was fleeing the war.
The migration authorities decided not to prosecute him for the border violation because Yevhen applied for international protection.
Border guards learned about his military past only after his arrest. Today, he was nevertheless deported back to Russia.
▪️The militant became known after a video from occupied Selydove in the Donetsk region, in which he declared that the city had “returned to Rasyeyushka.” Later, he criticized Russian commanders and fled to Finland after being beaten.

blueshoes · 17/11/2025 02:54

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-16-2025/

Key Takeaways

  1. Russian forces are attempting to complete their encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
  2. The situation in the Hulyaipole direction remains very serious as Russian forces continue to advance and maintain intensified offensive operations.
  3. Ukrainian forces report that they are successfully pushing back Russian efforts to seize Kupyansk. These reports are generally consistent with ISW’s assessments.
  4. The Kremlin used an interview with Kremlin-affiliated former Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Deputy Viktor Medvedchuk to reiterate Russia’s objective of absorbing all of Ukraine into Russia – possibly under the control of Medvedchuk himself. Medvedchuk’s statements are consistent with ISW’s assessments that Russia aims to absorb all of Ukraine and with US President Donald Trump’s statements that Putin “wants all of it.”
  5. Russian forces continue to encourage war crimes against Ukrainian servicemembers and civilians on the battlefield.
  6. Russian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 17/11/2025 09:59

Live:Ukraine

🔥Drones may have attacked oil refineries in Samara and Volgograd, according to Telegram channels.

Monitoring channels report that in the Samara region, strikes hit an electrical substation and the Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery. Local residents recorded dozens of explosions in the city, and eyewitnesses posted videos of bright flashes after the impact.

The local authorities have not officially commented on the attack.

Volgograd region governor Andrei Bocharov claimed that air defenses allegedly “repelled” a massive UAV attack. However, local channels report hits on Lukoil’s refinery, where flashes and explosions were recorded.

Videos posted by residents show UAV flyovers and four bright flashes.

▪️On October 19, operators of the 14th Separate UAV Regiment of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces already targeted the Novokuybyshevsk refinery. The strike hit the primary oil processing unit.

🔹 Finland’s president called Russia’s cancellation of the planned Trump–Putin meeting in Budapest a “strategic mistake.”

He said that during a phone call between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the American side likely understood that “the Russians had not taken a single step.”

According to Stubb, “there was no reason to involve Trump in a situation where he would not get a deal or any result.”

He stressed that “the cancellation of the meeting was another example of a strategic mistake by the Russians. They had an opportunity, but they lost it.”

▪️On September 16, Trump announced he would meet the Kremlin leader in Hungary.

▪️On October 23, Trump cancelled the planned meeting. Financial Times, citing sources, reported that the reason was Moscow’s position, which was “too hardline.”

🇬🇷🇺🇦 Details of gas supplies from Greece to Ukraine have been revealed.

The information was shared at a press conference by President Zelensky and Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis.

about:blank 🔴The energy corridor will start operating in January. The first stage of cooperation will be implemented in Q1 2026.

about:blank 🔴Gas will flow from the Greek port city of Alexandroupolis through Romania and Moldova to Odesa.

about:blank 🔴Greece aims to become a gas supply hub for Central and Eastern Europe.

Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine and Greece have both agreements for emergency gas deliveries and longer-term supply arrangements.

🔸 Foreign Minister Sybiha urged partners to shift from the approach of supporting Ukraine “for as long as it takes” to the approach of supporting it “as strongly as possible,” including by financing drone production in Ukraine.

He said that at this stage of the war it is crucial to achieve two goals: to abandon one’s own illusions and to deprive the enemy of theirs.

🔹 The port of Novorossiysk has resumed loading oil, Reuters reports, citing two sources.

According to vessel-tracking data from LSEG, two tankers are currently loading oil at the port’s berths.

Novorossiysk and the nearby Sheskharis terminal had suspended oil exports for two days following Ukraine’s combined strike.

This suspension affected 2.2 million barrels per day, which is about 2 percent of global supply. World oil prices rose by more than 2 percent amid concerns over supply after the attack.

The strike on Novorossiysk was the most damaging attack yet on Russia’s main crude-export infrastructure in the Black Sea.

🔸 Russia shelled Balakliia in the Kharkiv region, launching two missile strikes on residential areas in the central part of the city.
Three people are confirmed dead and ten others injured.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 17/11/2025 10:09

United 24 Media:

🤬 Russia is involving North Korean soldiers in mine clearance in the Kursk region, — Reuters.

North Korea’s participation in mine clearance on Russian territory highlights both countries’ intention to deepen their military cooperation.

🔹 Finnish President Stubb noted that Stalin reached Berlin in four years, while Russia hasn’t even made it to Kyiv — and it won’t.

🔸 Pope Leo XIV expressed his condolences over the deaths in Ukraine caused by recent shelling.

He voiced solidarity with the victims and urged people not to grow accustomed to war and destruction.

“Let us pray together for a just and lasting peace in war-torn Ukraine,” he said.

🔹 Germany’s minister is heading to China for the first time and will also raise the topic of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

“Access to critical raw materials and reducing China’s excess production capacity in sectors such as metallurgy and electromobility are crucial for Germany’s economy and jobs,” said Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil.

He added that he would discuss Russia’s aggression against Ukraine during the visit, noting that the war affects economic stability not only in Europe but globally.

🔸 Occupied Donetsk is completely without electricity after a strike on a substation.

🔹 Streets of Kherson now have anti-drone nets stretched above them to protect civilians from Russian drones.

🔸 Orbán called fears of a possible Russian attack on Europe “ridiculous.”

He said Russia has been unable to fully occupy Ukraine for more than three years, so claims that Europe is weaker than Russia make no sense.

“With all due respect, I find it ridiculous to say that Russia will attack the EU or NATO simply because it’s not strong enough. We are much stronger than them. The European Union has over 400 million people, Russia has around 140 million. (…)

If you add up the military capabilities of the 27 EU countries, we are much stronger than Russia. The Russians have been unable to fully occupy Ukraine for more than three years. How can we in Europe claim that we are weaker than Russia?” he said on the MD MEETS podcast hosted by Matthias Döpfner, Chairman of the Board of Axel Springer.

🔹 In October, Russia’s fossil fuel exports fell to their lowest level since the start of the full-scale war — Onet reports.

According to the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research (CREA), in October 2025, Russia exported fossil fuels worth €524 million per day — 4% less than in September.

The biggest buyers were China (€5.8 billion), India (€3.1 billion), and Türkiye (€2.7 billion).

This decline has continued for the second month in a row, driven in part by the accuracy of Ukrainian deep strikes.

🔸 A railway section leading to Ukraine was damaged in Poland. Tusk admits it could have been sabotage.

In the Mazowieckie Voivodeship, a section of the railway used by trains traveling from Warsaw to the Ukrainian border (Dorohusk station) was damaged. The incident occurred on November 16.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said he is not ruling out the possibility of sabotage. No one was injured, and security services are continuing their investigation.

🔹 Russia has started using fiber-optic drones with a range of up to 50 km against Ukraine, Ukraine’s First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov told Business Insider.

Fedorov said the new Russian drones “have a real impact on the logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.” He added that the Ukrainian military is already working on countermeasures, developing and testing various methods across several brigades.

“Fiber-optic drones have shown that devices immune to electronic warfare pose a significant threat to supplies and personnel,” he noted.

These drones are controlled via long coils of cable that maintain constant communication with the operator, making them nearly invulnerable to electronic warfare. At the same time, this makes them difficult to intercept. Business Insider notes that the only practical way to shoot down a fiber-optic FPV drone is with a shotgun — requiring both good reaction and luck.

Typically, fiber-optic drones have a range of 10 to 25 km. However, Russian and Ukrainian engineers are working to extend this. An October report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated that Russian developers had created fiber-optic FPV drones with a range of up to 50 km, though this has not been officially confirmed.

Fedorov first learned of these devices a few weeks ago when they appeared in Donbas. He said they are difficult to operate because they are heavy, affected by wind, must overcome physical obstacles, and the cable coil makes them bulky and slow. Still, he confirmed they are being used, including in the Pokrovsk area.

Drone experts told Business Insider that creating fiber-optic drones with a range over 40 km is technically possible but challenging. The cable’s weight limits the payload and reduces warhead size. Enlarging the frame decreases maneuverability and combat effectiveness.

Ukraine is adapting by developing interception systems, setting ambushes, and even attempting to cut the cables keeping the drones in the air.

“We are looking for a way to respond, and this will likely push the battlefield toward autonomous drones, which we expect to become the next stage of war,” Fedorov said.

Autonomous drones operate without pilots, relying on artificial intelligence for control and decision-making. Ukraine is actively investing in the development of these systems.

🔸 Ukraine and France have signed a major agreement to strengthen combat aviation, air defense, and other defense capabilities.

Under the deal, Ukraine will receive Rafale fighter jets, SAMP/T air defense systems, and additional defense equipment.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 17/11/2025 10:17

Kyiv Independent:

⚡️ Russian assault on key Dnipropetrovsk Oblast village repelled, Ukraine says

Russian forces launched an armored assault on Novopavlivka, a front-line village on strategic high ground along the Dnipropetrovsk-Donetsk oblast border. They tried to break through under the cover of fog, but Ukrainian forces said they repelled the attack.

🔹 What the fall of Pokrovsk would mean for Ukraine — and Russia

With Russia throwing enormous forces into Pokrovsk to finally capture the eastern coal-mine city, questions are rising over what will happen next and whether Ukraine is ready.

After capturing what’s left of Pokrovsk, Russian troops would likely push toward the town of Dobropillia to the north, according to Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with the Finland-based open-source analysis organization Black Bird Group.

🔸 A Czech dilemma: Ukrainian ammunition program in limbo as populist coalition takes power in Prague

With Czechia's new government coalition likely to take office in the coming weeks, the question of the country's landmark ammunition initiative for Kyiv remains unanswered.

Populist billionaire Andrej Babis, whose ANO party ousted the pro-Ukraine cabinet of Prime Minister Petr Fiala in the October parliamentary election, has lambasted the project as overpriced and non-transparent.

Neither Prague nor its partners, however, have put forward a definite plan on keeping the scheme operational in its current form should the new government abandon it.

⚡️Russian troops reportedly execute 2 Ukrainian POWs near Zatyshshia in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the mapping group Deep State reported.

Ukraine’s military intelligence says it has documented over 150 cases of captured Ukrainian soldiers being summarily executed after surrendering.

⚡️Ukraine strikes major oil refinery in Russia’s Samara Oblast, hits elite Rubikon drone base

Ukrainian forces struck the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery in Russia’s Samara Oblast and a drone storage site belonging to Russia’s elite Rubikon unit, Ukraine's General Staff reported on Nov. 16.

⚡️Europe must stay patient as prospects for Ukraine-Russia ceasefire remain distant, Finnish president says.

Europe must stay patient, with a ceasefire to end Russia’s war against Ukraine not expected until at least the springtime, Finnish President Alexander Stubb told The Associated Press in an interview published Nov. 16.

⚡️US lawmakers drafting sanctions bill targeting countries doing business with Russia, Trump says.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Nov. 16 that congressional Republicans are preparing legislation that would impose sanctions on any country doing business with Russia.

⚡️ Mike Pompeo joins advisory board of scrutinized Ukrainian defense firm Fire Point.

Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has joined the advisory board of a Ukrainian defense company known for its Flamingo long-range missiles, AP reported.

⚡️ Zelensky arrives in France for defense talks with Macron.

President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in France on Nov. 17, where French President Emmanuel Macron welcomed him ahead of expected talks on strengthening Ukrainian-French cooperation.

⚡️ Russian missile strike on Kharkiv Oblast kills 3, wounds 10, including 3 children.

"Unfortunately, calls about possible victims continue to come in," authorities said.

⚡️ 'Act of sabotage' — Explosion hits Polish railway track used for Ukraine aid shipments, Warsaw says.

"We will catch the perpetrators, whoever they are," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said, noting that the route was "crucially important for delivering aid to Ukraine."

⚡️ Update: Zelensky, Macron sign declaration on Ukraine-France defense cooperation.

The agreement, signed during Zelensky's official trip to France, focuses on Ukraine's "acquisition of defense equipment," the Ukrainian Presidential Office said in a broadcast.

🔹 These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of Nov. 17, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 17/11/2025 10:19

Kyiv Post:

🔹Trump appears to be embracing a “bunker-buster” bill that, in order to punish Russia, would target nations sustaining Moscow’s war economy.

🔸 Kremlin has doubled down on perceived threats from London, as Putin tries to repair relations with decision-makers within the Trump regime.

PerkingFaintly · 17/11/2025 14:54

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 17/11/2025 13:43

Made m'heart hurt Carol of the Bells.

💕

PerkingFaintly · 17/11/2025 18:35

Leaky eyes here listening to Shchedryk (again).

Just want to send a little love to anyone struggling at the moment because of things in Ukraine, or for any other reason.💛💙

Especially to @Mb76 , @MMBaranova and @HillsMakeYouStrong.

And a good strong Brew to @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar , @blueshoes and @DesdamonasHandkerchief for the round-ups (and any rounders-up I've forgotten). Thank you all.

PerkingFaintly · 17/11/2025 19:51

More about the attack on a railway in Poland leading to the Ukraine border.

As the article reminds us, two years ago Poland convicted more than a dozen people for installing secret cameras close to railway lines which carry weapons and equipment to Ukraine.

Polish PM says railway explosion was 'unprecedented act of sabotage'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp85g86x0zgo

A green-and-white train stopped on a railway track, with officials standing beside it. Overhead power lines and trackside signs are visible in the scene.

Poland rail explosion: PM says blast was 'unprecedented act of sabotage'

Authorities say the blast happened on a line leading to the border with Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp85g86x0zgo

Mb76 · 17/11/2025 19:56

PerkingFaintly · 17/11/2025 18:35

Leaky eyes here listening to Shchedryk (again).

Just want to send a little love to anyone struggling at the moment because of things in Ukraine, or for any other reason.💛💙

Especially to @Mb76 , @MMBaranova and @HillsMakeYouStrong.

And a good strong Brew to @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar , @blueshoes and @DesdamonasHandkerchief for the round-ups (and any rounders-up I've forgotten). Thank you all.

Thank you 🌻

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 18/11/2025 11:16

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Zelensky to visit Turkey to 'reinvigorate' stalled negotiations (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-to-visit-turkey-to-reinvigorate-stalled-negotiations-with-russia/) with Russia.
"We are preparing to reinvigorate negotiations, and we have developed solutions that we will propose to our partners," Zelensky said.

⚡️ Update: Kremlin says no Russian officials (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-to-visit-turkey-to-reinvigorate-stalled-negotiations-with-russia/) will attend Turkey talks.
“For now, these contacts are taking place without Russian participation,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.

⚡️ Russia's flagship oil price drops (https://kyivindependent.com/russias-flagship-oil-price-drops-as-buyers-retreat-ahead-of-us-sanctions/) as buyers retreat ahead of US sanctions.
Discounts on Urals relative to Brent reached $23.5 per barrel, the widest gap since June 2023.

⚡️ 'Our defense is falling apart (https://kyivindependent.com/our-defense-is-falling-apart-prominent-ukrainian-activist-criticizes-military-and-political-leadership/)' — Prominent Ukrainian activist criticizes military, political leadership.
Sternenko's warning comes as Russian troops pierce through Ukrainian defenses on multiple hot spot sectors of the war.

⚡️Congress to move (https://kyivindependent.com/congress-to-move-on-legislating-russia-sanctions-bill-following-trumps-blessing-us-senator-graham-says/) on legislating Russia sanctions bill following Trump's 'blessing,' US Senator Graham says.
The United States Congress will renew its efforts to move forward in an attempt to pass a Russia sanctions bill into law, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham announced on Nov. 17.

⚡️ As reparations loan talks stall, EU proposes 90 billion euro grant (https://kyivindependent.com/as-reparations-loan-talks-stall-eu-pitches-90-billion-euro-grant-to-cover-ukraines-budget-needs/) to cover Ukraine's financing needs.
Based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates, the EU expects that if the Russia-Ukraine war ends in 2026, Kyiv will face a financial gap of 135.7 billion euros ($157 billion) in the 2026-2027 period.

⚡️Ukraine reportedly strikes (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-reportedly-strikes-thermal-power-plant-in-occupied-donetsk-oblast-2/) thermal power plant in occupied Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️ Ukraine war latest live (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-update-2025-11-17/): Russia bombed itself 8 times in 11 days, HUR intercepted call suggests.

⚡️Poland in 'pre-war (https://kyivindependent.com/poland-in-pre-war-period-amid-increased-russian-sabotage-efforts-top-polish-general-says/)' period amid increased Russian sabotage efforts, top Polish general says.
Russia has begun preparing for war with Poland as Moscow continues to escalate its cyberattacks and acts of sabotage on Polish soil, the Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces Wieslaw Kukula said on Nov. 17.
Kukula's comments came just hours before Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that a railway track between Warsaw and Lublin was blown up in an "unprecedented act of sabotage." The railway serves as a means to connect Ukraine with vital Western aid shipments.

⚡️Several law enforcement agencies come under fire over alleged involvement (https://kyivindependent.com/law-enforcement-agencies-come-under-fire-over-handling-of-energy-corruption-scheme/) in Ukraine's biggest graft scheme.
Several law enforcement agencies were lambasted by a parliamentary commission on Nov. 17 for failing to investigate their employees' alleged involvement in a large-scale corruption scheme at state nuclear power company Energoatom.
The Prosecutor General's Office, the Security Service, the State Investigation Bureau, the National Agency for Corruption Prevention, and the Economic Security Bureau are mentioned in tapes released by the NABU, and their employees may be implicated in the scheme.

⚡️Ukrainian public broadcaster (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-public-broadcaster-in-dnipro-badly-damaged-in-overnight-russian-attack/) in Dnipro badly damaged in overnight Russian attack.
A mass Russian drone attack on the city of Dnipro on the evening of Nov. 17 caused major damage to the regional office of Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne, the outlet reported.

⚡️Russian missile strikes Kharkiv Oblast (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-missile-strikes-kharkiv-oblast-killing-teenage-girl-injuring-9/), killing teenage girl, injuring 9.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — NOV 18, 2025
■ Weather conditions added to the dashboard
■ Engagements and casualties down from the previous day
■ Drone losses up but still below average; modest land-based equipment losses
■ Overnight attacks: triple-digit, including four Iskander-M missiles; 15 locations hit and two affected by debris; decent interception rate
■ 🇷🇺 air strikes remain above average; three 🇺🇦 strikes reported

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 18/11/2025 11:26

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

[repeated]
An armed attack is being prepared against Poland, said Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Army, General Wiesław Kukula.
“The enemy has begun preparing for war. They are creating a certain situation here, the purpose of which is to undermine public trust in the government and in key institutions such as the Armed Forces and the police, and to create conditions conducive to potential aggression on Polish territory,” he noted.

The headquarters of the “Coalition of the Willing” has become operational near Paris. By Christmas, the Coalition will move to a new stage in the deployment of forces in Ukraine, President Macron and President Zelenskyy said at a joint press conference.
Key statements:
▫️ The headquarters of the “Coalition of the,” under the command of France and Great Britain, has been working on security guarantees for Ukraine for several weeks.
▫️ The goal of the Coalition is to deploy Western troops in Ukraine away from the front lines to guarantee security after a ceasefire is achieved.
▫️ Zelenskyy said he believes peace in continues every day to strengthen sanctions against Russia and deter aggression.
▫️ Only the Russian Federation has decided to continue this war. Since May, Ukraine has been demonstrating its readiness to end the war, while Russia continues to refuse negotiations. When Russia says it wants peace, no one believes it anymore.
▫️ Ukraine will receive 100 Rafale aircraft. They will arrive fully armed, and crew training will be provided.
▫️ Ukraine will receive eight SAMP/T air defense systems of the latest generation, becoming the first country to receive this new development. A total of 48 launchers will be delivered, with dates yet to be disclosed.
▫️ Ukrzaliznytsia will purchase 55 electric locomotives from the French company Alstom, strengthening logistics and transport in Ukraine.
▫️ Ukraine and France have agreed on the joint production of interceptor drones and aerial bombs over a two-year timeline, with plans extending ten years into the future.
▫️ Anti-corruption measures in Ukraine are not enough. Work will continue to address them.

The Russians have stationed 137 trucks of unknown purpose at the Engels-2 airbase.
The reason for this accumulation is currently unclear, but the trucks are most likely related to the transportation of weapons for Russian strategic aviation. The photos are dated November 15.

Finland has begun artillery exercises 100 km from the Russian border, Yle reports.
The Northern Strike 225 exercise started at Rovajärvi, Western Europe’s largest training ground in eastern Lapland.
It involves 2,200 troops and 500 pieces of equipment, aiming to train artillery systems in winter conditions and integrate allied capabilities.

If the fighting in Ukraine ends through a peace agreement, Ukrainian troops could be deployed to defend the EU’s eastern borders against Russia, European Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius told Politico.

Ukrainian railways Ukrzaliznytsia and the French engineering corporation Alstom have signed an agreement to supply 55 electric locomotives, which will significantly strengthen Ukraine’s logistics capabilities, President Zelenskyy said during a meeting with journalists in France
Ukraine is building sovereign AI in partnership with NVIDIA, — said Mykhailo Fedorov, Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine.
“We have already launched the AI Factory project, which will bring powerful state AI infrastructure from NVIDIA to Ukraine. Now we are starting a new joint initiative to build sovereign AI together. This is a matter of national security and data protection. Thanks to NVIDIA’s expertise, Ukraine will gain access to the best technologies in the world to create a sustainable and independent AI infrastructure for the state and defense sectors,” Fedorov said.
Key areas of the initiative:
▫️ Support in creating a national infrastructure based on NVIDIA’s AI technology
▫️ Development of talents and education in the field of AI
▫️ Joint R&D projects
▫️ Support for the startup ecosystem
The first joint project will be the creation of Diia AI LLM — a sovereign language model trained on Ukrainian data, legislation, and public services. All AI solutions in the Diia ecosystem will operate based on this model, from the portal assistant to a future voice assistant in the app.
“Through this project, Ukraine will gain access to NVIDIA technologies and expertise. This will help train models faster, optimize costs, and create world-class AI solutions,” Fedorov added.

HUR soldiers continue to destroy Russian air defense systems in Donbas.
Over the past two weeks, reconnaissance units have struck:
▪️ the Tor-M1 surface-to-air missile system
▪️ the 55K6 command post of the S-400 air defense system
▪️ the 9S18M1-3 radar station of the Buk-M3 system

🇺🇦🎬 The animation “I Died in Irpin” named best short film in Europe
The animated film “I Died in Irpin,” directed by Anastasia Falileeva, won the main award at the Emile Awards in the short film category — the distinction “Best of the Best.”
The award annually honors leading European animation works and is presented by the European Animation Awards Association.

Frankfurt launches tram “Frankfurt-Lviv” featuring panoramas of both cities
A tram decorated with images of Lviv and Frankfurt was presented in Frankfurt am Main. This is part of a city tradition—each twin city has its own carriage.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 18/11/2025 11:31

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Germany’s defense minister warns Russia could be capable of attacking NATO as early as 2028-29, (www.kyivpost.com/post/64385) urging faster military buildup as Moscow accelerates rearmament.

Estonia warns Russia will return (www.kyivpost.com/post/64408) with more troops and equipment in “two years or less.”

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has lost its main external power connection due to the activation of a protection system, the IAEA reported.
An investigation is currently underway.

Russia unveils export version of Su-57 stealth fighter (www.kyivpost.com/post/64380) in Dubai amid war-strained economy.
The stealth fighter is highly prized by the Kremlin, but with no confirmed sightings in Ukraine – and its export debut may signal Moscow’s growing need for cash.

Unverified reports alleged that former Defense Minister Umerov refused to return from Turkey just as Ukraine’s anti-corruption bureau (NABU) announced new investigations into the defense sector. Kyiv has firmly rejected these accusations. (www.kyivpost.com/post/64391)

A hidden power struggle inside Putin’s inner circle is fracturing the Russian state. As elites battle for control, infighting – not Ukraine – poses the regime’s greatest threat.
https://www.kyivpost.com/videos/64394

Ukraine’s overnight drone strike hit two key power plants (www.kyivpost.com/post/64423) in the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic.
Russian-installed officials reported a second consecutive day of widespread blackouts across the occupied region.

Putin signed a bill into law that toughens penalties for inciting children to commit sabotage (www.kyivpost.com/post/64398) – including life imprisonment – while lowering the age of criminal liability from 16 to 14.

“Poland’s geopolitical future will look really good if Ukraine does not lose the war,” (www.kyivpost.com/post/64362) Tusk said, adding that building strong, partnership-based ties with a sovereign Ukraine is “a great opportunity for Poland.”

Putin‘s forces launched massive overnight strikes (www.kyivpost.com/post/64419) on Ukraine’s Dnipro and Kharkiv regions, triggering fires, destroying infrastructure, and injuring multiple civilians.
Among the victims: a 17-year-old girl killed in Khakiv region.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 18/11/2025 11:33

@notimagain what do you make of Russia exporting its stealth fighter? Some are seeing it as a sign of financial pressure.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 18/11/2025 11:43

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇺🇸 Trump is ready to sign new sanctions against Russia on the condition that he keeps the final decision-making power, Reuters reports, citing a White House source.
Over the weekend, the U.S. president told journalists that Republicans in Congress are working on a sanctions bill targeting states that trade with Russia. He described the bill as his own proposal.
According to Reuters, the White House will insist on wording that guarantees Trump “retains control over the sanctions.”
A White House official said: “It has always been important for the White House and the president that any sanctions package include an exception ensuring the president has final decision-making authority over sanctions. So as long as that provision is included, I think the president will consider signing the bill.”

🇺🇸🇺🇦 Trump’s special representative, Steve Witkoff, will travel to Istanbul for a meeting with Zelensky.
This was reported by Guy Faulconbridge, head of the Reuters Moscow bureau, citing a Turkish source.
Earlier, the Ukrainian president announced that he would hold meetings in Turkey on 19 November. The talks are expected to focus on re-energizing negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, with Ukraine set to present “prepared solutions” to its partners. Work will also continue on restoring prisoner exchanges.

🇺🇦🇨🇿 In Prague, activists hung Ukrainian flags near the home of Parliamentary Speaker Tomio Okamura.
Flags appeared on the fence of Okamura’s residence in the Břevnov district. Blue-and-yellow symbols were also spray-painted on the pavement, lamp posts, a trash bin and the stairs.
Okamura believes this was done by pro-Ukrainian activists marking 17 November, the Day of Struggle for Freedom and Democracy in the Czech Republic and Slovakia.[....]
Okamura had ordered the removal of the Ukrainian flag from the parliament building on 6 November. In response, Czech MPs hung Ukrainian flags from the windows of their offices.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán rejected European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s call for continued financial support for Ukraine.
He said the proposal “is like trying to help an alcoholic by sending him another crate of vodka.”
Orbán concluded by saying that “Hungary has not lost its common sense.”

Russia attacked Ukraine overnight with ballistic missiles and 114 drones, causing deaths and injuries.
Air defense units destroyed 101 Russian drones; 13 UAVs and four Iskander-M ballistic missiles struck 15 locations. The following consequences are reported across the regions:
🔴Dnipropetrovsk region. Russia launched a massive attack on Dnipro. A man and a woman were injured. Enterprises, an administrative building, residential homes, the railway station, and the offices of Suspilne and Ukrainian Radio were damaged.
🔴Kharkiv region. Several railway stations in the region came under attack. The town of Berestyn was hit by missiles: a 17-year-old girl was killed, nine people were injured and seven of them were hospitalized.
🔴Chernihiv region. Two local women were killed in the shelling of Horodnia. Homes were damaged and fires broke out.
🔴Kherson region. Two people were killed and five injured, including a child. Residential buildings were damaged. By morning, Russian shelling had partially cut power across all districts of Kherson.

❗️Russia attacks Kherson with hundreds of drones every week. More than 300 civilians were killed this spring during what locals describe as a “human safari.”
Human rights group Truth Hounds found that along the right bank of the Dnipro — a roughly 400-kilometer stretch of the front line — between 20% and 50% of the pre-war population still remains. All of them regularly become targets for Russian drones.
Kherson region suffers the most from UAV attacks. In Kherson alone, there were 600–700 strikes every week in March 2025; by August, the weekly number exceeded 1,500.
Between March and May, at least 313 civilians in Kherson were killed or injured in drone strikes.
In the Nikopol district of the Dnipropetrovsk region, an average of 459 drone attacks per month were recorded over nearly a year.
The investigation describes how Russian forces created their own narrative by declaring riverside areas a “red zone,” where any movement is treated as a legitimate military target. This practice has become informally known as human safari.

🔥 A gas pipeline exploded near the Russian city of Omsk, triggering a massive fire.
The accident occurred on an underground section of a main gas pipeline spur. Local authorities say the preliminary cause of the explosion is a gas leak during repair work.
Several industrial facilities in the region have been disconnected from gas supply.
Residents of Rostovka in the Omsk region report a chemical smell in the air.

🥊 Usyk has vacated his WBO title — he is no longer the undisputed world champion.
The World Boxing Organization said the decision was made after speaking with Usyk and described it as “a respectful pause, not a farewell.”
Usyk’s next mandatory opponent was supposed to be Britain’s Fabio Wardley, with a fight planned for the first half of 2026.
Wardley has now been awarded the status of WBO interim champion. To claim the full title, he must defeat another opponent.
Usyk became world champion in September 2021 after defeating Britain’s Anthony Joshua. He defended the title five times and won every fight.

notimagain · 18/11/2025 12:51

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

I'm sure Russia needs the cash but export of the SU-57 isn't a startling development, there was always a stated intent to export a varient to e.g. India. Question is whether production for export is prioritised over production of replacement hulls for the Russian Air Force.

TBH the programme has been hit with lots of delays over the years and the aircraft is rumoured to be significantly less stealthy than things like the F-35..

DuncinToffee · 18/11/2025 20:09

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk: “As a result of the investigation, we now know it was the Russian Secret Services that commissioned the blast of the Polish railway and recruited two Ukrainians to do it. We also know the identities of the perpetrators who immediately fled Poland for Belarus.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gknv8nxlzo

DuncinToffee · 19/11/2025 09:33

This does not sound good, "without Ukrainian input"

1/ The US has secretly been working with Russia to develop a new peace plan for Ukraine, according to a report in Axios. The 28-point plan is said to cover peace in Ukraine, security guarantees, security in Europe, and future US relations with Russia and Ukraine. ⬇️

https://bsky.app/profile/chriso-wiki.bsky.social/post/3m5xubw7fqk2k

https://www.axios.com/2025/11/19/ukraine-peace-plan-trump-russia-witkoff

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