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Ukraine Invasion: Part 59

1000 replies

MagicFox · 17/10/2025 22:11

Well, it’s thread 59.

Thanks to all regular contributors, especially those doing the daily hard work. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

D. Please keep on topic

OP posts:
Thread gallery
441
blueshoes · 23/12/2025 10:39

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-22-2025/

Key Takeaways

  1. False reports are likely shaping Russian President Vladimir Putin’s understanding of the battlefield situation.
  2. FT and the Washington Post’s reports cohere with ISW’s observations from open-source information about the pervasive culture of lying in the Russian military, in contrast with the increased willingness of Kremlin officials overseeing the economy to present more truthful reports to Putin.
  3. Putin’s own cognitive warfare effort, which exaggerates Russian advances to push Ukraine to capitulate to Russian demands during negotiations, feeds on and likely encourages the false reports his military officials provide him.
  4. Senior US and Ukrainian officials commented on the outcome of separate meetings between US and Ukrainian as well as US and Russian representatives in Miami.
  5. Russia reportedly rejected a US-proposed temporary ceasefire, and a high ranking Kremlin official publicly indicated that Russia will reject many of the latest Ukrainian and European peace proposals.
  6. Ukrainian security services likely assassinated Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov, the chief of the Russian General Staff’s Operational Training Department, in Moscow City on December 22.
  7. Russian security services likely assassinated former leader of the Russian Hispaniola Brigade Stanislav Orlov in occupied Crimea on December 4.
  8. Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and near Pokrovsk. Russian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 23/12/2025 10:45

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

The Council of the European Union has extended economic sanctions against Russia until July 31, 2026.
The measures include restrictions on trade, finance, energy, technology and dual-use goods, as well as limits affecting industry, transport, and luxury products.

The EU transferred the previously announced €2.3 billion (www.kyivpost.com/post/66747) to Ukraine’s budget account, as another tranche under the Ukraine Facility, the EU program for Ukraine’s recovery and macrofinancial stability.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and President Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff are competing to become Washington’s lead negotiator on Ukraine, NBC News reports.
Witkoff arrived in Switzerland ahead of scheduled talks with Ukrainian officials without notifying the State Department, though Rubio later joined the meeting in Geneva, highlighting a long-standing rift.
Their strategies differ sharply: Witkoff presses Ukraine toward concessions, while Rubio favors tougher pressure on Russia to secure Ukraine’s safety. Critics have dubbed Witkoff “a gift to Russia.”

Nearly 147,000 Ukrainians have been evacuated (www.kyivpost.com/post/66757) from front-line areas since June.
The UN reported in February, at the last official count three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, that some 3.7 million Ukrainians have been driven from their homes.

An awareness action titled “Dinner Without Them” was held in the city of Stryi, Lviv region, in support of Ukrainian prisoners of war and those missing in action.
“They do not know the fate of their loved ones. At their festive family tables, a father, husband, or son will be missing. The uncertainty is unbearable,” the Stryi City Council said in a statement.

“Kyiv is NOT losing, Moscow is” (www.kyivpost.com/post/66759) — Leading US lawmakers say Ukraine’s resilience is holding Russia back and urge Congress to expand military and economic support to secure a lasting strategic advantage.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 23/12/2025 10:50

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

U.S. Vice President JD Vance stated that progress has been made in peace talks regarding Ukraine, but there is no certainty that a peaceful settlement will be reached.
According to Vance, there are difficulties with the three parties involved in the negotiations: the Ukrainians, the Russians, and the Europeans.
However, in his view, the "breakthrough" is that "all the [contentious] issues are actually out in the open," whereas "initially, there was a little bit of a game of obfuscation."

German Defense Minister Pistorius stated that he does not believe in a scenario of a full-scale war between Russia and NATO, but emphasized that this does not relieve the Bundeswehr of the need to strengthen itself and increase weapons production. [this is actually more hopeful than comments in the last months]

🇺🇦🇱🇹 Ukraine has received a thermal power plant from Lithuania via the EU Civil Protection Mechanism.
The operation lasted 11 months and included 149 shipments with a total weight of nearly 2.4 thousand tons. This equipment has helped conduct repairs in several regions where the Russians severely damaged the energy infrastructure.

🇨🇳China has deployed over 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles across three training sites, Reuters reports, citing a draft Pentagon report.
DF-31 type missiles have been deployed at sites near the border with Mongolia, indicating a significant expansion of China’s nuclear potential.
The report states that as of 2024, China possessed 600 nuclear warheads. From this, Pentagon officials concluded that the production rate of warheads has slowed. However, the department projects that by 2030, China could have more than 1,000 warheads.
Last month, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he is working on a denuclearization plan together with China and Russia. However, the draft Pentagon report indicates that Beijing is not interested in this.

Revolut will begin closing the accounts of Ukrainians starting in February 2026.
Users are receiving official letters stating that the online bank is ceasing services in Ukraine due to local legislative requirements. For 60 days after receiving this notification, the account can still be used as usual.
The company recommends withdrawing all funds and downloading account statements before the account is closed.
After 60 days, the account will be closed, and users will only be able to withdraw funds to an external bank account. It will no longer be possible to:
▪️ top up the account;
▪️ make card payments;
▪️ withdraw cash from ATMs using your card;
▪️ send money to other accounts.
All unused funds will be converted into euros and transferred to the user's external bank account.

A wrecked train hit by a Shahed in the Zhytomyr region and damaged railway tracks—these are the consequences of an enemy attack on freight cars.
Today, Russia continues to launch UAVs at Korosten, where a nighttime attack on the railway was carried out. A number of trains are running with delays.

In Kyiv and several regions, the consequences of the overnight and morning Russian attacks are being recorded. Fatalities and injuries have already been reported.
🔴Kyiv: In the Sviatoshynskyi district, debris fell near a residential building this morning. Four people are known to have been injured, including a 16-year-old child.
🔴Kyiv Region: A woman was killed near Vyshhorod, and three people were injured, including a 17-year-old girl. Private houses were damaged.
🔴Khmelnytskyi Region: One person was killed due to Russian shelling; there are disruptions in the power supply.
🔴Zhytomyr Region: A 4-year-old child was killed in the Russian attack. Another child and an adult have been hospitalized. In total, 5 people are reported injured.
🔴Odesa Region: Overnight, Russians again attacked energy, port, transport, and residential infrastructure in the region. A civilian vessel, a warehouse, and residential buildings were damaged.
🔴Lviv Region: An enemy drone hit a critical energy infrastructure facility.
🔴Rivne Region: Due to the morning strike, cars and a two-story apartment building were damaged in the region.
🔴Chernihiv Region: The civilian infrastructure of Novhorod-Siverskyi suffered from overnight drone attacks.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 23/12/2025 10:57

German Defense Minister Pistorius stated that he does not believe in a scenario of a full-scale war between Russia and NATO, but emphasized that this does not relieve the Bundeswehr of the need to strengthen itself and increase weapons production

For months the warnings from high up, incl if I recall correctly Pistorius himself as well as Rutte and some Generals, have been that Russia is stockpiling weopons and an open attack from Russia might come in the next 3 - 5 years.

This comment from Pistorius is rather the most positive in some time.

dibly · 23/12/2025 17:23

Interesting that Rubio and Witkoff are vying to be the lead negotiator on Ukraine. Witkoff needs to go.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/12/2025 11:02

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Ukraine withdraws from Siversk (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-withdraw-from-siversk-the-general-staff-says/), Donetsk Oblast, General Staff says.
Ukrainian soldiers withdrew from the settlement "in order to save lives and maintain the combat capability of units."

⚡️ Ukraine war latest live (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-update-2025-12-23/): Nearly 100 Russian troops enter Hrabovske, Sumy Oblast, in 'sudden' attack.

⚡️Zelensky reveals (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-reveals-20-point-peace-plan-draft-backed-by-ukraine-us/) full 20-point peace plan backed by Ukraine, US.
The Kyiv Independent is publishing a 20-point draft of the peace plan developed by Ukraine and the U.S.

⚡️ Poll shows 55% of Russians expect war to end (kyivindependent.com/poll-shows-55-of-russians-expect-war-to-end-in-2026/) in 2026 — and want life back to 'normal.'
While many respondents expressed hopes for an end to the fighting, they largely expect it to conclude on terms "proclaimed as its goals," reflecting continued alignment with the Kremlin's narrative.

⚡️ Fire breaks out (kyivindependent.com/local-residents-reported-explosions-at-ship-repair-enterprise-in-russias-nizhny-novgorod-oblast/) at ship repair facility in Russia's Nizhny Novgorod.
According to Russian state media, one person was killed as a result of the incident.

⚡️ Ukraine war latest live (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-update-2025-12-23/): Kyiv hit rare Russian Il-38N recon plane before sinking submarine, SBU reveals.

⚡️Chornobyl protective structure could collapse (kyivindependent.com/chornobyl-protective-structure-could-collapse-following-russian-strikes-plant-director-warns/) following Russian strikes, plant director warns.
The protective shield built above the former Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant could collapse following a Russian strike earlier this year, plant director Serhii Tarakanov told AFP in an interview published Dec. 23.

⚡️Serbia reaches (kyivindependent.com/serbia-reaches-deal-to-buy-russian-gas-until-march/) deal to buy Russian gas until March.
Serbia has reached an agreement to buy Russian natural gas until the end of March, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said on Dec. 23.

⚡️Russian rubber plant catches fire after reported attack (kyivindependent.com/russian-rubber-plant-catches-fire-after-reported-attack-in-tula-oblast-locals-say/) in Tula oblast, locals say.
A synthetic rubber factory in Russia's Tula region was attacked and caught fire overnight on Dec. 24, according to local residents and regional officials.

⚡️ Philanthropist Howard Buffett (kyivindependent.com/philanthropist-howard-buffett-travels-to-kupiansk-suburb-in-kharkiv-oblast-to-help-evacuate-civilians/) travels to Kupiansk suburb in Kharkiv Oblast to help evacuate civilians.
Buffett received a state award from President Volodymyr Zelensky in 2024, naming him a "National Legend of Ukraine."

⚡️ Bribes, TikTok, and escapes through disused pipelines — Ukraine's SBU reveals 'mobilization evasion schemes.' (kyivindependent.com/bribes-tiktok-and-escapes-though-disused-pipelines-ukraines-sbu-reveals-mobilization-evasion-schemes/)
Eight ringleaders have been arrested who now face up to ten years each in prison.

⚡️Ukraine set to count voters, (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-resumes-work-of-state-voter-register-for-first-time-since-start-of-russias-all-out-war/) preparing for potential elections during war.
"Updating the voter register is one of the fundamental conditions for holding any elections," said David Arakhamia, leader of the Servant of the People faction. "The war has had a significant impact on demographic indicators, and this must be reflected in the register."

⚡️ Ukraine war latest live (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-update-2025-12-23/): Kyiv brings back group of children from Russian-occupied areas of Kherson Oblast.

⚡️ Ukrainian man spying for Belarus (kyivindependent.com/sbu-detained-and-sentenced-belarusian-spy-in-ukraine/) sentenced to 15 years in prison.

⚡️Switzerland extradites (kyivindependent.com/switzerland-extradites-ukrainian-over-russian-backed-sabotage-plot/) Ukrainian over Russian-backed sabotage plot.
Switzerland has extradited a Ukrainian national to Germany in connection with an alleged Russian-orchestrated sabotage plot, the German newspaper Die Welt reported on Dec. 23.
The suspect is accused of plotting aggravated arson and bombing attacks on behalf of Russian authorities.

Carol of the Bells: the song that made the world speak about Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/carol-of-the-bells-the-song-that-made-the-world-speak-about-ukraine/)
“Shchedryk is not just music, it is a story of resistance. Its composer was murdered, its Paris premiere nearly sabotaged by Russian agents, and today, amid a war that seeks to erase Ukrainian culture, Shchedryk is still played around the world,” Mariana Hirniak, a journalist and public speaker on Ukrainian culture and history, in this op-ed.

⚡️Ukrainian drone attack in Russia's Belgorod Oblast (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drone-attack-in-russias-belgorod-oblast-kills-1-injures-3-governor-claims/) kills 1, injures 3, governor claims.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
⚡️ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — DEC 24, 2025
■ Russian casualties reach 1.2 million, with an estimated 318 thousand deaths
■ No new area gains; freezing temperatures in the north
■ Record-high total equipment and drone losses; strong unarmored and artillery losses as well
■ Overnight attacks: triple-digit, all drones, but the interception rate could be better
■ Double-digit 🇺🇦 strikes for the second day in a row

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/12/2025 11:17

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

❗️President Zelenskyy heard reports from Umerov and Hnatov following negotiations in the United States.

20 Points of Ukraine’s Peace Plan: Security Guarantees, Reconstruction, EU Membership (united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/20-points-of-ukraines-peace-plan-security-guarantees-reconstruction-eu-membership-14517)
While discussing the issue of a peace agreement, Ukraine has prepared a framework agreement—a draft of a basic document on ending the war. It contains 20 points addressing a ceasefire, security guarantees, Ukraine’s future for decades ahead, and other key issues that have been raised previously.

🪖 Russians are approaching a strategic stalemate in the war against Ukraine
Commander of the 3rd Army Corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Andrii Biletsky, said that according to Ukrainian and allied intelligence, Russian troops are exhausted and degraded, and are approaching a strategic stalemate.
According to him, the infiltration tactics Russia prides itself on are, in practice, leading to massive losses — six to eight times higher than Ukrainian losses. The situation with armored vehicles and artillery systems is also deteriorating.
Biletsky added that, realizing this impasse, the occupiers are attempting to seize Donbas by non-military means, using KGB-era influence tools to create the illusion that they are capable of fighting for several more years.
“I believe that in the near future — within three to five months — significant changes will occur. If Ukraine intensifies combat training, accelerates the introduction and scaling of new technological solutions on the battlefield, and replaces people as much as possible with machines — UAVs, robotic systems, technical reconnaissance and protection tools — there is every chance the Russians will be stopped. Then we will be able to sit down at the table calmly and secure not ideal, but acceptable conditions at this stage,” Biletsky emphasized.

💪 F-16 fighters shot down most of the cruise missiles during [yesterday's] Russian attack.
“Kinzhal missiles, although not intercepted by Patriot systems, did not reach their targets. Of the 35 cruise missiles launched, 34 were shot down, mainly by F-16 aircraft. For this, we thank our valiant pilots,” said the head of the communications department of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

According to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, civilian deaths in the first 11 months of 2025 were 26% higher than in the same period of 2024 and 70% higher than in 2023, Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said.
In November alone, at least 226 civilians were killed and 952 injured. Almost half of the casualties were recorded in frontline regions, where the main threats were short-range drones, artillery, and air strikes.
About half of the victims were caused by long-range missile attacks. In November, Russia also carried out five large-scale strikes on Ukraine’s power system, leading to prolonged power outages across the country.

🛢 A “traffic jam” of tankers carrying Russian oil is forming at sea, Bloomberg reports.
According to the agency, at least 20 tankers loaded with Russian oil are waiting for permission to unload off the coasts of China and India, with some shipments taking months to arrive. Despite record export volumes of about 3.9 million barrels per day, Russia is struggling to physically unload its oil due to sanctions.
The volume of Russian oil stored on tankers has risen by nearly 50% since the end of August. The situation has been worsened by intensified US actions against ships transporting sanctioned Venezuelan oil, prompting shippers and buyers to fear similar measures against Russian cargoes.
Amid oversupply and weak demand, prices for Russian crude grades continue to fall, forcing Moscow to offer ever larger discounts to attract buyers.

Dozens of executives and employees of Russian defense companies have been prosecuted for failing to fulfill state defense contracts, Reuters reports.
Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, at least 34 people have been charged with criminal offenses related to unfulfilled defense contracts. At least 11 of the defendants held senior positions at the companies, including two members of top management.
Five defendants have already been sentenced to prison terms of up to six years, while around 15 others remain in custody awaiting trial.
The number of such cases reached a record high in 2025. According to Reuters calculations, 43 criminal cases related to state defense contracts were filed in the first eight months of this year alone.

For comparison, 34 cases were brought in all of 2024, 36 in 2023, and 32 in 2022. In the three years before the war, the number did not exceed 23 cases annually.

In four steps, we explain a documented process through which Russia recruits citizens of African countries into its war against Ukraine.
Based on investigations by international media and interviews with prisoners of war held in Ukraine, this pathway often begins with invitations to study or enroll in educational programs in Russia. It is followed by documentation problems and the threat of deportation, after which individuals, under pressure, agree to sign work contracts without fully understanding their content—contracts that later turn out to be military agreements.
Taken together, these cases point to an inhumane recruitment practice in which vulnerable people are misled and sent to the front line without a real choice.
The full video featuring the testimony of a Togolese citizen recruited by Russia is available on the United24 Media YouTube channel. t.me/United24media/38418

🕯 Hero of Ukraine Oleksandr Shemet, who carried out the final breakthrough at Azovstal, was killed in an Mi-24 helicopter crash, his brother Yurii Shemet told Suspilne.
According to him, a preliminary investigation found that on December 17 a helicopter of the 12th Separate Army Aviation Brigade collided with a Shahed drone.
“The Shahed was not visible at the control point. Apparently, it was flying very low. Those involved in the investigation say they had never seen anything like this before. The helicopter was so badly damaged that it was virtually torn apart. The bodies were badly burned,” Yurii Shemet said.
Identification of the victims’ bodies and decoding of the Mi-24’s flight data recorder are currently underway. Investigators have ruled out technical failure or pilot error.
Oleksandr Shemet had been taking part in the anti-terrorist operation in eastern Ukraine since 2015. At the start of the full-scale invasion, he defended Kyiv. He was awarded the Hero of Ukraine Star after the final air mission to Azovstal on April 5, 2022.
“He flew to occupied Mariupol, delivered ammunition and medicines, and evacuated the wounded. On the return flight, they came under heavy fire, but he managed to save the helicopter, the crew, and return safely,” his brother said.
Oleksandr Shemet turned 55 on December 13. He is survived by his mother, wife, daughter, and son, who is also serving in the military.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/12/2025 11:25

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Ukraine is drafting a one-off wartime election law to ensure secure, (www.kyivpost.com/post/66784) democratic voting for soldiers, displaced people, and refugees abroad.

Ukrainian forces have taken a US-supplied Abrams tank into battle, (www.kyivpost.com/post/66843) using it to deliver heavy fire support during a frontline assault near Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, the unit involved has revealed.

Ukraine has revealed new details (www.kyivpost.com/post/66839) of an unprecedented underwater drone attack on the Russian port of Novorossiysk.
A Russian anti-submarine aircraft was disabled first, clearing the way for a successful strike on a Russian submarine inside the port.

Ukraine’s military intelligence says the two Russian police officers killed in a recent bombing (www.kyivpost.com/post/66858) had previously fought in Ukraine and were involved in the torture of Ukrainian prisoners of war.

Ukrainians are keeping budgets modest, (www.kyivpost.com/post/66447) prioritizing family and charity, and favoring human judgment over AI tools, a Deloitte Ukraine study finds.
Russia Is NOT a state. It’s a criminal business.
Kyiv Post’s Dr. Jason Jay Smart explains how the Kremlin uses the trappings of statehood, ministries, courts, and intelligence services as tools to protect a ruling network and monetize power.
https://www.kyivpost.com/videos/66816

Post-Miami: Americans back Ukraine and see Russia as the enemy, but want an endgame. (www.kyivpost.com/post/66822)
New polling finds Americans united on Russia as the adversary but increasingly skeptical that US leaders have a plan to end the war.

Russia Is Not a State. It’s a Criminal Business

Kyiv Post’s Dr. Jason Jay Smart explains how the Kremlin uses the trappings of statehood, ministries, courts, and intelligence services as tools to protect a ruling network and monetize power.

https://www.kyivpost.com/videos/66816

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/12/2025 11:29

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

❗️ President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has for the first time outlined the details of a draft 20-point document between Ukraine, the US, Europe, and Russia, reports Suspilne following a meeting with the President.
🔴Reconfirmation of Ukraine’s sovereignty.
🔴A non-aggression pact between Russia and Ukraine. A monitoring mechanism to oversee the line of contact.
🔴Strong security guarantees for Ukraine.
🔴AFU personnel size: 800,000 military personnel in peacetime.
🔴The US, NATO, and European signatory states will provide Ukraine with security guarantees similar to NATO’s Article 5.
🔴Russia will codify a non-aggression policy toward Europe and Ukraine in all necessary laws and international treaties requiring ratification by the State Duma.
🔴Ukraine will become an EU member at a specific, defined time. Ukraine will also receive short-term privileged access to the European market.
🔴A robust global development package for Ukraine, including a separate investment agreement.
🔴Establishment of several funds to address the recovery of the Ukrainian economy. The goal is to attract $800 billion.
🔴Ukraine will accelerate the process of concluding a free trade agreement with the US.
🔴Ukraine will remain a non-nuclear state.
🔴Zaporizhzhia NPP will be operated jointly by three countries: Ukraine, the US, and Russia.
Ukraine wants to share control of the ZNPP only with the US, which could decide how to manage its 50% of the electricity. Washington, however, insists that the distribution must also include Russia.
🔴Russia must withdraw its troops from the Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions.
A potential free economic zone in Donbas is being discussed. It envisions a de facto demilitarized zone where international forces will guarantee order and security. Ukraine is ready to hold a referendum in controlled territories to approve this.
🔴Russia and Ukraine commit not to change territorial arrangements by force.
🔴Russia will not interfere with Ukraine’s use of the Dnipro River and the Black Sea for commercial activities. The Kinburn Spit will be demilitarized.
🔴A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve the issues of POWs, detained civilians, and hostages.
POWs held since 2014 will be exchanged on an "all for all" basis. Detained civilians and hostages, including children and political prisoners, will be returned.
🔴Elections will be held in Ukraine as soon as possible after the agreement is signed.
🔴The agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be overseen by a Peace Council led by US President Donald Trump.
🔴A ceasefire will take effect immediately once all parties agree to the document.
▪️ Zelenskyy previously stated that "openly non-pro-Ukrainian points" had been removed from the plan, which originally contained 28 points. The most debated issues remain the status of territories in the East and the ZNPP.

A Ukrainian citizen, who prepared acts of sabotage in Germany at the request of Russia, has been extradited from Switzerland.
According to the prosecution, together with two Ukrainian accomplices, the suspect, Yevhen B., was supposed to send parcels from Germany to Ukraine containing explosive or incendiary devices that were intended to ignite during transport. Preliminary reports suggest that all three were recruited by Russia.
At the end of March, the group sent two test parcels equipped with GPS trackers. In May, Yevhen B.'s two accomplices were detained—they are also currently in custody in Germany.

"Zaporizhstal" has halted operations following a Russian attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
The company announced a complete power outage. Employees managed to avoid a technological disaster and reduce the level of atmospheric emissions, so there is no threat to the workers or city residents.
"Zaporizhstal" is one of the largest metallurgical plants in Ukraine. It produces pig iron, sheet steel, and bent sections. It is a vital industrial giant for Ukraine, especially after the shutdown of the plants in Mariupol.
▪️ During the night and morning, the Russians attacked Ukraine with over 600 drones and 38 missiles. They primarily targeted the energy sector—power outages have occurred in more than 10 regions.

A lawmaker from the far-right "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) party has attempted to uncover details regarding weapon deliveries to Ukraine, according to Politico.
In addition to his interest in arms shipments, Ringo Mühlmann submitted eight inquiries to the police concerning the use of drones and anti-drone protection in one of Germany's regions.
Mühlmann insists that he is not acting on behalf of Russian intelligence services. The AfD has also rejected these allegations.

Oily slicks and the bodies of dead birds have been found on the beaches of Odesa. The pollution was caused by a Russian attack, which resulted in vegetable oil leaking into the waters of the Black Sea.

Ukrainian air defense shot down 60 out of 116 Russian drones overnight.
Forty-eight drones struck 19 different locations.
Zaporizhzhia was hit the hardest, where four people were injured. At least 13 apartment buildings, a fire station, administrative buildings, and an educational institution were damaged.
The occupiers also directed a significant number of drones at a critical infrastructure facility in the Chernihiv region.

blueshoes · 25/12/2025 01:20

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-23-2025/

Key Takeaways

  1. Russia conducted another large-scale combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine overnight on December 22 and 23, primarily targeting energy infrastructure in western Ukraine.
  2. Russian forces conducted a reduced battalion-sized mechanized assault in the Dobropillya direction and a reduced-platoon sized mechanized assault in the Kostyantynivka direction on December 22.
  3. Combat footage showing failed Russian mechanized assaults continue to demonstrate that Russian forces have been unable to restore mechanized maneuver to the battlefield.
  4. Russian gains likely will continue to be constrained to a slow foot pace, and any sudden Russian operational-level breakthrough remains unlikely.
  5. The Russian Baltic Fleet is reportedly reforming its 336th Naval Infantry Brigade into the 120th Naval Infantry Division – the ninth new maneuver division that Russia has formed since 2022.
  6. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
TemporarilyCantDoMyself · 25/12/2025 12:06

Sending love and wishes for sovereignty and peace and prosperity to all Ukrainians wherever you are.
May peace be firmly established soon.
Slava Ukraini. 💞

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/12/2025 12:37

Seconded.

Sovereignty, peace and healing to Ukraine; strength and courage to the soldiers and to the people living in the civilian places.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/12/2025 12:43

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Territories and Zaporizhzhia plant — where US, Ukraine still can't find agreement. (kyivindependent.com/where-russia-ukraine-still-cant-find-agreement/)
As President Volodymyr Zelensky unveiled details of a U.S.-Ukraine draft peace plan on Dec. 24, aimed at ending Russia's full-scale war, two key provisions remain unresolved.
The disagreements center on provisions 12 and 14 of the 20-point proposal. Both deal with issues Kyiv calls existential: territories and the future of critical infrastructure.
The Kyiv Independent breaks down where negotiations are stalling and what Ukraine is offering instead.

⚡️Russian officials claim 16 drones (kyivindependent.com/russian-officials-claim-16-drones-headed-for-moscow-were-downed-on-christmas-eve/) headed for Moscow were downed on Christmas Eve.

⚡️ Ukraine on track to receive (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-on-track-to-receive-total-of-3-million-fpv-drones-in-2025/) total of 3 million FPV drones in 2025, defense minister says.
"The role of unmanned systems on the battlefield is growing, and therefore the production of innovative instruments of war is our number one priority," Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal said.

⚡️Drone attack ignites (kyivindependent.com/drone-attack-sparks-fire-at-two-oil-tanks-in-russias-krasnodar-krai-port/) 2 oil tanks at port in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai.
The port fire spread across 2,000 square meters, with 70 personnel involved in efforts to extinguish the blaze, the statement said.

⚡️'May he perish (kyivindependent.com/may-he-perish-zelensky-voices-ukrainians-wish-in-his-christmas-eve-address/),' — Zelensky voices Ukrainians' wish in his Christmas Eve address.
"'May he perish,' each of us may think to ourselves," Zelensky said on Dec. 24, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin. "But when we turn to God, of course, we ask for something greater. We ask for peace for Ukraine."

⚡️ Ukraine election poll shows tight first round (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-election-poll-shows-tight-first-round-decisive-zaluzhnyi-runoff-win-over-zelensky/), decisive Zaluzhnyi runoff win over Zelensky.
In a hypothetical runoff between the two, Zaluzhnyi would secure a decisive victory, winning 64% of the vote compared to Zelensky's 36%, according to the poll.

⚡️At least 2 killed (kyivindependent.com/at-least-2-killed-34-injured-in-russian-attacks-on-ukraine-over-past-day/), 35 injured in Russian attacks on Ukraine over past day.
Russia launched 131 drones at Ukraine overnight, the Air Force said. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 106 drones.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
🎄 RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — DEC 25, 2025
■ Area losses confirmed; casualties below average, but heavy Russian equipment losses
■ 7th-highest drone losses; triple-digit unarmored losses; artillery & tank losses >2x the average
■ Overnight attacks: triple-digit, all drones, improved interception
■ 🇺🇦 strikes well above average

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/12/2025 12:49

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Russia has rejected the 20-point peace plan proposed by the United States and Ukraine and is preparing counter-demands, Bloomberg reports.
According to the outlet, Moscow wants stricter limits on the Ukrainian Armed Forces, guarantees against NATO expansion, clarity on the lifting of sanctions and the fate of frozen Russian assets, as well as concessions on territorial issues and the so-called “protection” of the Russian language.

https://t.me/United24media/38436 Merry Christmas!

Russia struck a high-rise building in Chernihiv with a drone, causing a fire in one of the apartments.

🇺🇦❤️‍🩹 The embassies of Germany, the United Kingdom, and France performed “Shchedryk” in the Kyiv metro on Christmas Eve. https://t.me/United24media/38453

Russian occupiers are cancelling the so-called “special regime” for Ukrainians in the occupied territories. From January 1, 2026, residents may face deportation, the Mariupol City Council reported.
Previously, the “special regime” allowed people to remain in the temporarily occupied territories with Ukrainian passports. Now, residents must apply for a residence permit.
To do so, they are required to register and prove residence in the so-called “DPR.” In practice, this forces Ukrainians to obtain Russian passports.
If these requirements are not met, the occupying authorities threaten deportation from their homes.

Kyrylo Budanov visited the combat positions of the Main Intelligence Directorate’s special forces in the Zaporizhzhia region.
The head of military intelligence met with soldiers and officers who are directly engaged in detecting and destroying Russian forces and equipment.
During the visit, the lieutenant general inspected the conditions in which the units operate on the front line and presented state awards to the servicemen.

At night, the enemy again struck port and industrial infrastructure in the Odesa region, said regional military administration head Oleh Kiper.
Administrative, production, and warehouse facilities were damaged. Fires broke out at several sites and were extinguished by rescuers.
One person was killed — the body was recovered from the rubble. Two others were injured and are receiving medical assistance.

Police officers who allegedly tortured Ukrainian prisoners were killed in Moscow, RBK-Ukraine reports, citing intelligence sources.
According to interlocutors in Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (HUR), a local resident carried out the attack overnight as a protest against the Kremlin’s aggressive policies. The man reportedly approached a police vehicle parked near a police station and threw an explosive device through the window, causing an explosion.
Two Russian police officers were killed at the scene, while two others were hospitalized with serious injuries. https://t.me/United24media/38455

🇭🇺 Orbán did not rule out a war in Europe in 2026.
“There is a redistribution of financial, military, and political power that could even provoke war. Military tensions in Europe are a consequence of the decline of Western Europe and the EU,” he said.

Ukrainian military performed “Shchedryk” at Sofia Square in Kyiv, next to the country’s main Christmas tree. https://t.me/United24media/38460

🎅 Santa Claus has entered Ukrainian airspace, according to Flightradar.
Air defense forces were informed — no need to worry 😉

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/12/2025 12:52

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) said it has delivered a new batch of Su-35S multirole fighters (www.kyivpost.com/post/66904) to the Russian military in a Christmas update.

Russian troops have been attempting to break (www.kyivpost.com/post/66921) into the city center of southern Ukraine’s Hulyaipole.

Merry Christmas From Kyiv
Ukraine stands as proof that life goes on, even when it is tested. (https://www.kyivpost.com/editorial/66867)

Russia engages in peace talks just enough to avoid blame while keeping its military and political objectives intact, (www.kyivpost.com/post/66882) longtime Russia strategist Glen Howard said in an interview with Kyiv Post.

Russia claims Christmas drone strikes on Moscow.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense said it shot down 141 Ukrainian drones overnight between Christmas (www.kyivpost.com/post/66896) Eve and Christmas Day. Fewer than a dozen were reportedly heading toward Moscow.

Digital services in Ukraine have evolved to become a critical barometer for the quality of life, (www.kyivpost.com/post/66829) municipal efficiency, and the country’s readiness for European integration.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/12/2025 12:57

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

During a conversation with journalists, Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine will submit the twenty-point peace agreement to the parliament for ratification or hold a nationwide referendum, and may also decide to hold national elections simultaneously with the referendum.
He specified that to conduct a referendum on the full agreement that would solidify the end of the war, a minimum of 60 days and a complete ceasefire for that duration are required.

Zelenskyy stated that the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) will not operate without the restoration of the Kakhovka Dam, which requires 2 billion euros.
Zelenskyy also reiterated to journalists that the U.S. is proposing that Ukraine jointly use the Zaporizhzhia NPP with the Russian Federation, but no agreement has been reached yet.

🇷🇴 Russians are obtaining Romanian passports en masse using forged documents. Sometimes they use the data of Ukrainian soldiers killed in the war, writes Le Monde.
The scheme is built on falsifying Romanian roots—inventing ancestors who supposedly lived on the territory of the former Kingdom of Romania (modern-day Moldova and parts of the Odesa and Chernivtsi regions).
Due to destroyed archives, it is difficult to verify the documents, which allows fraudsters to produce forgeries and bypass EU sanctions.
In 2023–2024, more than 11,000 Russians applied to "restore" their citizenship. For comparison, a total of only 5,262 applications were submitted between 2012 and 2022.
This scheme has been developed over many years and is actively advertised on social media. Agencies promise a wealthy life in the EU with a Romanian passport for €4,000–7,000. In 2023, one such agency was advertised by Russian journalist and blogger Ksenia Sobchak.

🇮🇳India's largest oil refining company has resumed purchases of Russian oil, according to Bloomberg.
The private company Reliance Industries Ltd. had stopped buying Russian oil after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russia’s largest oil and gas companies—Rosneft and Lukoil—on October 22.
Now, India's largest importer is purchasing raw materials from Russian suppliers that have not fallen under sanctions. In particular, it has signed a contract with the company "RusExport."
Reliance has chartered tankers and is directing the raw materials to the country's largest refinery in Jamnagar, with a capacity of 660,000 barrels per day, which serves the domestic market.

SBU drones attacked oil storage tanks at the port of "Temryuk" and a gas processing plant in Orenburg, sources in the special services told "Babel."
🔴At the port of "Temryuk" in the Krasnodar region, two tanks containing petroleum products are on fire. The fire covers an area of approximately 2,000 m².
🔴At the Orenburg Gas Processing Plant, gas ignited in the pipeline of the 3U-70 unit gantry, which cleans raw gas of hydrogen sulfide and carbon dioxide. Operations at the enterprise have been suspended. This plant is the largest gas-chemical complex in the world, processing 37.5 billion m³ of gas annually.

🇰🇵 Two soldiers from the DPRK captured by Ukrainian forces have requested asylum in South Korea.
The head of a North Korean defector group in South Korea stated that the two captives, both in their 20s, wrote a letter in October expressing their desire to go to South Korea, according to Yonhap.
The letter was delivered in early December via a South Korean documentary filmmaker who visited a prisoner-of-war camp near Kyiv.
In the letter, the prisoners stated that they consider South Koreans to be their brothers.
▪️ South Korean intelligence agencies estimate that since October 2024, North Korea has sent approximately 10,000 of its troops to Ukraine to support Russian forces.
▪️ In January, the Defense Forces captured the first two North Korean soldiers. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously stated that Ukraine was ready to hand them over to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

This is Chernihiv, where the Russians launched a drone strike on a high-rise building
According to the Regional Military Administration (OVA), one person has been killed and five others injured, including a child.

In the United States, verbatim transcripts of meetings and telephone conversations between Putin and former U.S. President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2008 have been published.
During the first face-to-face meeting between the leaders, Putin gave Bush a "historical lecture" on the collapse of the USSR, calling it a "gesture of goodwill." He stated that "Russians voluntarily gave up Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and the Caucasus."
The Russian president also raised the issue of the Russian Federation's membership in NATO and said that his country felt "left out" because it did not belong to the Alliance.
Bush responded that he saw Russia as part of the West and suggested rethinking common threats.
By their final meeting in Sochi in 2008, Putin calls Ukraine an "artificial state" and claims that its accession to NATO would create a "long-term field of conflict" for Russia and the United States.
Putin continues to tell Bush that all Ukrainian territories were "gifts" and that a significant portion of Ukrainians perceive NATO "as a hostile organization."
He also speaks of mythical "threats of NATO bases near the borders of the Russian Federation" and explicitly states that Russia will work to stop the expansion of the Alliance.

Merry Christmas 🎄

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/12/2025 13:03

Best Christmas wishes to everyone on this thread, too.

@MissConductUS one of the things I'm sorriest about in the last years is that the difficult situation politically has led to strain on this thread. Just to say that despite my fury at what's happening in some aspects, your contributions, and you, are very much respected and appreciated.

Peace to all of goodwill.

PerkingFaintly · 25/12/2025 13:22

TemporarilyCantDoMyself · 25/12/2025 12:06

Sending love and wishes for sovereignty and peace and prosperity to all Ukrainians wherever you are.
May peace be firmly established soon.
Slava Ukraini. 💞

Heroiam slava!

All of this to Ukrainians wherever you are.

And warmest Christmas wishes to everyone on these threads.

PerkingFaintly · 25/12/2025 13:23

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/12/2025 13:03

Best Christmas wishes to everyone on this thread, too.

@MissConductUS one of the things I'm sorriest about in the last years is that the difficult situation politically has led to strain on this thread. Just to say that despite my fury at what's happening in some aspects, your contributions, and you, are very much respected and appreciated.

Peace to all of goodwill.

This is what I want to say too.

Happy Christmas, peace and goodwill to you, @MissConductUS .Wine

Mb76 · 25/12/2025 13:36

Happy Christmas everyone, thank you for your ongoing support and contributions.

Natsku · 25/12/2025 14:30

The traditional Finnish Christmas greeting that wishes a peaceful Christmas feels very appropriate right now. I wish a peaceful Christmas to all.

MissConductUS · 25/12/2025 14:33

Happy Christmas to you and all of my Ukraine thread friends, @PerkingFaintly. I am currently in the ICU recovering from coronary bypass surgery, but hope to be going home soon.

It has been a Christmas to remember, that’s for sure. Merry Christmas to all.

PerkingFaintly · 25/12/2025 14:39

MissConductUS · 25/12/2025 14:33

Happy Christmas to you and all of my Ukraine thread friends, @PerkingFaintly. I am currently in the ICU recovering from coronary bypass surgery, but hope to be going home soon.

It has been a Christmas to remember, that’s for sure. Merry Christmas to all.

Oh good lord! I'm sorry to hear that, and very touched you took the time to join us here.

GET WELL SOON!

(I'll keep that Wine somewhere safe for you to enjoy later!!)

Natsku · 25/12/2025 14:39

MissConductUS · 25/12/2025 14:33

Happy Christmas to you and all of my Ukraine thread friends, @PerkingFaintly. I am currently in the ICU recovering from coronary bypass surgery, but hope to be going home soon.

It has been a Christmas to remember, that’s for sure. Merry Christmas to all.

Oh I hope you are ok and recover swiftly. Take care.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/12/2025 14:42

MissConductUS · 25/12/2025 14:33

Happy Christmas to you and all of my Ukraine thread friends, @PerkingFaintly. I am currently in the ICU recovering from coronary bypass surgery, but hope to be going home soon.

It has been a Christmas to remember, that’s for sure. Merry Christmas to all.

Oh good lord - I hope it's gone well and you recover very soon @MissConductUS

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