Pondering the Birthrate Decline...

[Upsideyourhead]

Was just reading an article about this and wanted to get other people's views. The birthrate in the UK is at a record low, 1.44:

https://post.parliament.uk/research-briefings/post-pn-0745/

The Adam Smith Institute thinks the triple lock on pensions will be unsustainable by 2036, due to too few working people.

I haven't really seen this spoken about on here, in fact, it's normally the opposite: save the planet, have fewer kids, etc. Just wondering what people think about this and what they think the solution is. I'm pretty optimistic, so I'm focusing on the fact there might be more housing available for the kids we do have...

I feel like one of these three things has to happen, but can't work out which would be most popular:

1. Retired people from 2036 will have a raw deal when it comes to their pensions - they'll get far less than expected. There may be fewer workers to do, or willing to do, care work, so OAPs might physically suffer that way also. But that's the way it is, until the working age population can balance again, in a few generations time (assuming it doesn't decrease even more).
2. We will need to encourage and incentivise even more immigration, to get in workers to care for our old people (through tax and providing services)
3. Encourage more people to have children (e.g. South Korea offers cheaper mortgage rates to parents), although few countries have done this successfully.

As someone who will be retired in 25 years, I'm leaning towards 2 or 3. But perhaps the result will be a mixture of all three.

The state retirement age is going to need to go up.

The state pension will probably become more means tested.

As for filling the top of the funnel with more people… that can’t work in perpetuity.

I really do worry for my children about this.

I doubt financial incentives will make any real difference to the birth rate - plenty of people have kids they can't afford. When women have choices and education, they choose not to have lots of (or any) children - it's a pattern seen all over the world. Women will not give up that freedom for a tax break or free childcare. Those kinds of incentives might tip the balance for some people, but not enough to make a dent.

The article also said 75% of countries worldwide will see population decline by 2050, so it might end up countries need to compete for immigration, or countries stopping there own citizens leaving (Rome's population is set to shrink by more than 20% in the next 25 years).

What do you think the solution will be @TheOtherAgentJohnson ?

I think you're right... but surely there's a limit to how old we can work to. At some point we'll become more of a hindrance in the workplace, surely?

The only proper solution would be an economic system based on sustainability rather than perpetual growth, but that won't happen. Women as brood mares clearly won't be an acceptable option though.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5HhxYHnYvXwkEa75WhDqOA?si=n2seGTnhS8mLwjw2ha12ZQ

This is an IFS podcast from last year on the subject. It’s worth a listen. Really interesting.

Also, I think older people tend to vote more conservatively, but that might massively change if their pension comes under threat and their care needs aren't being met (something like 30% of NHS workers in London were born outside the UK). Unless immigration becomes a bipartisan issue, and both parties start to embrace it. Just can't imagine that ever happening though.

Interesting also that this issue is baked in... Perhaps AI will have the answer!

I'm so interested in this kind of stuff. Will definitely have a listen, thank you.

If you look at birth rates around the world it’s incredible. Even India is down to 2 (ish). Most of the places with expanding populations are in Africa. Here’s the top 15 (according to chat gpt)

1. Niger – 6.64
2. Angola – 5.70
3. Democratic Republic of the Congo – 5.49
4. Mali – 5.35
5. Benin – 5.34
6. Chad – 5.24
7. Uganda – 5.17
8. Somalia – 5.12
9. South Sudan – 5.09
10. Burundi – 4.90
11. Guinea – 4.78
12. Mozambique – 4.66
13. Guinea-Bissau – 4.62
14. Nigeria – 4.52
15. Sudan – 4.47

There’s a part on pro-natal policies (spoiler alert.. they don’t work) which is particularly good.

And it is all very well raising the retirement age but loads of companies manage to phase out older workers on higher salaries around age 50 and then no one else wants to hire them. I know so many people made redundant in their fifties who struggle to find permanent work from them on.

And all the while the assisted dying legislation is getting underway. ( actually I'm not even sure at what stage that got to ).

Birthrate threads should be matched with AI threads to see where we’ll be in a generation. And climate too.

Option 4: we ditch the triple lock now and get the existing pensioners to pay their way more, rather than constantly giving that generation free rides and screwing my generation over to pay for them. I’m sick of paying for them to screw us over.

The solution is immigration. Plenty of countries have a very young population and a high birth rate.

I don't think generational warfare is helpful.

However... There is a huge wealth gap and that's likely to get worse. One thing that isn't mentioned that much re the aging population is that in the next 5 to 20 years there will be a massive wealth transfer (as the boomer generation pass on and their children inherit) but that's not going to be equally distributed. Because of the massive increase in house prices etc whether or not people inherit from their parents could have a larger influence on their material wealth than any choices they make. Which isn't healthy for lots of reasons. And actually knowing that your children's future financial happiness depends on their inheritance is actually an incentive to have less children.

Incidentally the point when Britain's birth rate really started to decline was 2008. Before then it had been a bit below replacement level but more or less stable and not much lower than before WW2 (obviously it went up then down after). I think a reduction in birth rates seems to happen wherever urbanisation happens and isn't necessarily a bad thing. But the more recent downturn feel connected to the economic malaise post financial crash.

Will just have to wait and see

There are more interesting social questions as well
more only children than not? What will this mean? Are the demographics because couples choose to have only one or is it relationships that don’t sustain a second?

Will those children have a better childhood, more resources or more presssured, only one carrying the parent’s hopes and dreams?

Will the pressure on the planet start to ease?

How will work change?

How does a society whose economy is based on services and consumerism adapt?

If other developing countries have low birth rates will it be easier to emigrate?

Will the UKs temperate climate remain, or will it be plunged into long winters? Will the UK be a place as climate change and rising temperatures make southern European countries far too hot a desirable place to be able to live or will everyone move to Australia/USA/NZ/Scandinavia?

You can’t make people breed, if young adults are finding it impossible to house themselves how can they bring a child into the world? Are dating apps creating conditions that anything however small which is difficult in a relationship means you can’t just look for another whilst sitting at home mean couples never reach baby making stage?

Will having smaller families, no siblings, few cousins, create more of a feeling of individualism, or aloneness, fewer villages to raise a child? Creating a financial spiral that you need to look after yourself?

What about more immediate effects, people who make money from children’s parties, groups, books, tv?

What will be the increasing effects of the beauty industry, fillers, Botox, steroids? Forever chemicals, fertility?

Is personal fulfilment now more important than parenthood?

There are far more questions than answers, and far more interesting questions than pensions and house prices.

We are living in interesting times, society has changed for good, a huge change in a relatively short space of time.

Agreed. Some pensioners have been retired for over 30 years.

Apparently in South Korea they are closing lots of schools and teacher training centres as the birth rate has dropped to 0.5 there. It's predicted that by 2050, more than 40% of the population will be over 65 - the ramifications of this on society as a whole will be huge

Niger also has the highest child marriage rates.

https://www.girlsnotbrides.org/learning-resources/child-marriage-atlas/atlas/

People can’t afford to have kids or as many kids due to cost of living. As a midwife the fall in the birth rate was very noticeable following 2008 cost of living crisis and has continued to fall.

And older people staying in the workplace longer will mean fewer opportunities to get into/progress in the workplace. Unless there’s some sort job creation scheme for older people where they are paid to do something even if it isn’t the same job they’ve been doing all their lives.

Population growth (and the triple lock pension) are there ultimate pyramid scheme. It is simple never ending and ultimately unsustainable.

What needs to happen.

Stop using language that implies it is the fault if women. The measure of x children per women does exactly that.

Respect womens rights to equality and reproductive choices and don't attempt to pressure them otherwise.

Support women (and the men with them) who do want children by reducing childcare costs and improving access to appropriate family housing.

A cultural shift to men stepping up, with more men taking shared parental leave and more normalisation of flexible working for men. It's the only way to create fairness and equality for women at home and in the work place.

Take a more pragmatic approach to death and dying, which will involve a massive cultural shift in the UK and also bring in a comprehensive voluntary euthanasia programme (that includes access to those with dementia). 80% of healthcare budget goes on people in the last 12 months if life, and likewise with the social care budget. Quality of life over quantity.

Get more people of working age back to work, and keep people working to retirement age by having a push for more flexible/ part time work options. With the public sector leading by example.

More babies isn't the solution.

Both my parents spent their last 12m begging to die , Peri. Ironic, isn’t it?