Pondering the Birthrate Decline...

[Upsideyourhead]

Was just reading an article about this and wanted to get other people's views. The birthrate in the UK is at a record low, 1.44:

https://post.parliament.uk/research-briefings/post-pn-0745/

The Adam Smith Institute thinks the triple lock on pensions will be unsustainable by 2036, due to too few working people.

I haven't really seen this spoken about on here, in fact, it's normally the opposite: save the planet, have fewer kids, etc. Just wondering what people think about this and what they think the solution is. I'm pretty optimistic, so I'm focusing on the fact there might be more housing available for the kids we do have...

I feel like one of these three things has to happen, but can't work out which would be most popular:

1. Retired people from 2036 will have a raw deal when it comes to their pensions - they'll get far less than expected. There may be fewer workers to do, or willing to do, care work, so OAPs might physically suffer that way also. But that's the way it is, until the working age population can balance again, in a few generations time (assuming it doesn't decrease even more).
2. We will need to encourage and incentivise even more immigration, to get in workers to care for our old people (through tax and providing services)
3. Encourage more people to have children (e.g. South Korea offers cheaper mortgage rates to parents), although few countries have done this successfully.

As someone who will be retired in 25 years, I'm leaning towards 2 or 3. But perhaps the result will be a mixture of all three.

I don't really know but that sounds awful. I also think the base line today is pretty terrible with many older people going in homes seeing family once a week if they are lucky and seeing a random mix of carers in the week.

One of the reasons I put to entertain as a key factor. For example, would it be better for someone with dementure to have an AI friend to talk to when ever they wanted who would remember the details they had forgotten, rather than no one to talk to most of the day. Their must be more that could be done with large screen video calling so that friends and family could drop in much more often. AI enables patterns to be recognised which turn any service to the person. Could care patterns become more tailored to need than generic timing - ideally we need fewer but higher skilled care roles so the role can be paid more affordably.

I've never put a tonne of thought into it but there has to be a better future, as the population ages.

The birth rate is going down but UK population is increasing rapidly.

If childcare was more subsidised for all DC and more money was spent on education then maybe people would have more DC.

The older generations who possess as generations much wealth need to pay more.

That's it. They have not paid enough. The resources they are taking, pension, health, care are huge.

They can pay through increased inheritance tax when they die - a fair way that does not harm them when alive and reduces wealth inequality.

or they can pay for the services they use when alive.

Winter fuel payment should be long gone, along with the triple lock, free bus passes, free prescriptions.

Those that can pay, should. Those that can't pay now (but have housing assets) can pay later.

It could potentially be solved by longer term Visas. I.e you let people into the country for a fixed 10 or 15 years without a permeant right to stay for them and their children so that you benefit from the active years of work but don't bit the more expensive later years, but clearly this can't work on a global scale and probably isn't very ethical.

Nursery costs have doubled in my town from 12 years ago when mine went. Add in the cost of living and it’s just so expensive to live. I felt so poor when mine were little, can’t imagine it now.

People can now live such a long time due to medical advances. Pensions and other benefits for the over 65s are too expensive to maintain over 20-30 years. Plus the older generation have so many healthcare appointments etc, and care is so expensive. It just costs a lot for us taxpayers. I think we need to have more honest conversations about assisted dying.

That will change within a few generations, the boomers are a big generation

We dont need more immigration because not only do immigrants age also but its also replacing native europeans in thier homelands. That will cause even bigger demographic changes which will cause the right wing to get even more powerfull.

Ban things like porn and onlyfans first, then pay people to have kids instead of funding foreign wars like ukraine-russia.

Also, immigration lowers wages because to many immigrants (even those who are qualified) the minimum wage is still a good wage to them compared to what they get in thier homeland.

@Dappy777 well those african countries with high birthrates, they can stay in africa.

You do realise that a large proportion of immigration to the UK is by 'native Europeans? Onlyfans etc is a misogyny and trafficking issue rather than immigration. You don't want the right wing to grow more powerful but are doing a good job of sounding very right wing yourself.

I remember reading in Children of Men (PD James dystopian novel where people have lost the ability to reproduce) that overseas workers were allowed into the UK for a set number of ears (while physically useful) then shipped back once they had outlived their physical capabilities. People accepted it as a necessary evil and foregners were still keen to come here to work because of better quality of life/access to food etc. It does seem increasingly likely in the real work future as well.

No one can make anyone have children but you can prevent a situation where person decides to not have more because of financial constraints.

I'm in Ireland and we don't have free health care unless on low income, however we have a universal children's benefit. It's 140 euro per child per month. For twins each counts as 1.5 children so I get 3 payments for mine, that's 420. It makes a significant difference. A benefit like this coupled with the existing health care system and better subsidies for childcare plus better maternity leave pay could absolutely make a difference. I don't think anything would encourage a child free person to have children but it might encourage a family with one or two children to have more. It might also stop a single pregnant woman terminating if that's not what their heart wants. Government social policies can be very effective in influencing public behaviour. I suspect no action will be taken until crisis point, as usual.

Ageism is rife. No one wants to retain/hire a 70 year old.

That's very true and needs to end for society to get by as an aging population

@Sodukuchess but onlyfans and porn is still to blame for low birthrates. Many men being addicted to porn which doesnt motivate them to find a partner and instead just look at a screen. women who have onlyfans will find it much harder to find a husband to have kids because any decent man wouldnt want a woman who has an onlyfans to begin with.

Also, chemicals and plastic in food causes lower sperm counts. Men also have less testosterone now and we also still dont know what affect the covid vaccine will have on the next generation, maybe baby girls born to covid vaccinated mothers might not be born with eggs?

Utter rubbish. The vast majority of men go on to have children regardless of their watching habits and so will the women. The women are sadly mainly young but will have their children when they've been shoved back out on the street after they no longer look like teens. 😰

It's a disgusting industry but not for population control reasons. They are two completely separate issues.

Where's your stats to back this up?

The older generations who possess as generations much wealth need to pay more.

That's it. They have not paid enough. The resources they are taking, pension, health, care are huge.

But look at the outrage over means testing winter fuel

@Sodukuchess many younger women who have onlyfans probaly wont find a man to have kids with, men also care about a womans sexual past (especially now because of the "manosphere" and influencers like andrew tate) and men wont want to have kids with a girl knowing that she has slept around or done porn.

@Sodukuchess your kids will literally be bullied at school if you end up having kids with an onlyfans woman or a woman who has done porn lol

Wtf 😂?

I think what your post really demonstrates is that many women are dodging a bullet by staying single. Not sure if that was your intention...

I would prefer the younger generations (people in their late teens / early 20s) to be hired over 70 year olds. I think it’s better for them to be in work than those in their 70s.

@Dontlletmedownbruce child benefit was universal for my parents although not as high as Ireland. Means tested for younger generations now.

Yes but if retirement age increases and people can’t afford fat private pensions how do you expect them
to live?

Along comes an incel 🙄