VAT on private schools- facts only!

[CurlewKate]

Are there any actual figures for the number of pupils who have so far been withdrawn from private schools because of the VAT increase? And the number of new applications to state schools because of the VAT increase?

I already told you on a previous thread that DfE aren't collecting that data because Labour refuse to review it.
ISC are only body collecting data on it and I gave you the figures in that previous thread.

@twistyizzy as this thread is intended to be fact based, could you provide a source for your statement that Labour are "refusing to review data"?

They stated that they wouldn't review the policy after 6 months and therefore they aren't collecting data. That's why Phillipson can't answer any Q around data.
I haven't got time to search the Internet for the source of their vote on whether to review the policy after 6 months but I'm sure you could find it if you wanted.
ISC has lots of data as they are only organisation collecting it.

Also-I have had a look through the ISC comments-and I can't see where they get their figures from-can you point me in the right direction, please?

Interesting lack of response on this thread

I have told you repeatedly that the only body collecting data is ISC. I will spend my time this evening locating the data because seemingly you are incapable of finding this yourself and just sit demanding 'facts' from other people

Edinburgh has a very high proportion of privately educated children, 20% of the population. Up to January, 58 pupils moved from private to state. There are 114 state schools in Edinburgh so almost exactly 0.5 pupil per school. Hardly a massive influx.

www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/edinburgh-schools-influx-of-pupils-after-removal-of-vat-exemption-for-private-education-fails-to-materialise-4996921

Surely it is rather obvious we won't see the full implications of this policy for several years.

If you are already in private education particularly at senior level you are unlikely to move your children but if your children are younger you may now decide not to place them in private education either at all or until they are older.

Will be interesting to see how this pans out in the next 4 or 5 years.

I assume will also be quite geographically specific as some areas have a lot more private schools than others.

Already 10000 fewer started in September 2024 than 2023 and LAs saying approx about 5000 asked for places in year in first half term. Over 3000 from ISC schools handed their notice in before Xmas. Awaiting data for this term

Mount St Mary’s and Barlborough Hall closing with immedite effect. Really tough for those mid way through GCSE amd A Level courses.

I suspect that all of the closing schools were already struggling and then the VAT rule came in and that finished them off.

The Private Schools Closing This Year After Labour Tax Raid – Guido Fawkes order-order.com/2025/06/17/all-the-private-schools-closing-this-year-after-labour-tax-raid/ Here's a list of schools that have closed or are closing.

Ah so we've gone from "all independent schools are rich so can absorb the VAT" to (now 50 have closed since Sept 24) "well they must have been struggling anyway"
The gaslighting is unreal!!

Labour themselves predicted 100 closures over 3 years. We have 50 closures in the first year! 16k kids forced out of their schools which is 5x what Labour predicted in the first year!

It's almost like those of us who predicted all this were right!

I think you've addressed your response to the wrong person! I have not suggested that "all independent schools are rich." Far from it, in my experience, hence my comment that the schools were already struggling.

Many independent schools, particularly prep schools (and in particular, single sex prep schools) have quite precarious finances and it doesn't take much to tip them over the edge.

What will the figures on their own tell you? I could find all the independent school in my county that have folded since vat was added. Also the number on roll at date of anoncement of closure. That a crude figure. Most I know went into other indi schools. Most was low on numbers pre labour. That's just a fact in my county.

You can't measure the number of parents coming into education who was planning private at a ks start but dodged it due to vat.

You'd be better off looking at number in indi per year as a trend.

I know lots of kids who left state for indi just for better online covid teaching. Things like that might have affected overall trends as they finish education.

You'd get a better picture overall talking to SMT in indi schools. They know the figures.

Oh @CurlewKate ….

Really?

The figures tell us that there was a steady drop in pupil numbers month on month from Sept 24-July 25 with biggest drop between Jan 25-July 25.

The figures tell us that there's been a 67% increase in schools closing during that period than any other time.

It's almost like there was some type of external factor driving all these figures.....

There are more schools on watchlist for closing in September.....this policy is decimating the sector. Schools which had been running for 100s of years suddenly close under this government, right at the time this policy was introduced?

The OP has an axe to grind, methinks….

The figures are bad, otherwise awful Bridget would be talking about them. She isn’t.

Yes she was one of the ones constantly saying there would be little impact, all parents are wealthy so coukd easily afford to pay, all schools where wealthy so could easily absorb the costs etc.
Talked about hyperbole from those of us who were pointing out what the impact would be, on children.
Supports a policy which the UK is now the only country in the whole world to use (without also giving huge tax incentives to those parents eg New Zealand).
Doesn't have a word to say about £0 being invested into state schools.

As subtle as a brick - we can all see her coming a mile away.

@CurlewKate

How’s the forecast revenue raising working out for the Government, and how’s the recruitment of the 6,500 state school teachers proceeding?

Remember, just the facts please.

Heriot's is Edinburgh was still advertising places in their junior school well into this year which is unheard of as it's a much oversubscribed school it won't shut but it was an interesting seeing it really had to advertise to get the places filled.
2013 the senior fees were £9500 a year, now they are £20000 a year. My children both went there but my daughter will not be able to afford it for her kids . The local schools to her have some awful problems....drugs, knife crime etc.

Unfortunately, the “facts” are extremely hard to establish. Labour promised 6,500 more teachers but still aren’t entirely sure what to base this measurement on. Some would say that’s it’s a straightforward calculation; total number of teachers at end of parliamentary term - total number of teachers at beginning of parliamentary term = change in number of teachers. It’s almost as if they are looking for a way of massaging the figures in a way that is favourable for them.

https://www.tes.com/magazine/news/general/dfe-bosses-questioned-on-labour-6500-teacher-recruitment-pledge

“Appearing in front of the Commons Public Accounts Committee (PAC), DfE permanent secretary Susan Acland-Hood said work is underway on the target but no specific year has been set as a baseline against which to measure progress.”
“We haven’t set a year as a baseline……..”

According to Chat GPT:

• Treasury originally projected up to 54,000 pupils shifting to state schools within two years; updated estimates now suggest around 35,000 students leaving private schools (~6% of overall private pupil population)

• Think‑tank IFS predicted a 3–7% drop in private school attendance (17,000–40,000 pupils), though noted state schools should largely absorb this due to projected declines in pupil numbers by 2030