VAT on private schools- facts only!

[CurlewKate]

Are there any actual figures for the number of pupils who have so far been withdrawn from private schools because of the VAT increase? And the number of new applications to state schools because of the VAT increase?

Whilst buying ££ houses in best catchments for their own kids/using tutors/grammar schools/RG universities etc

Ah yes, but that’s “allowed”. Giving your children an advantage by having well educated parents, attending an academically selective state school, spending a fortune on houses in a great catchment, funding uni, funding house deposits, paying for tutors and extra curriculars is all ok. It’s just private schools that are “unfair”.

It’s strange that I know several people who declared private schools “unfair” and that they would never use them, who suddenly decided, after a change in financial circumstances, that private school was the best choice for their child after all

I don't think it's possible to say what the direct impact is because you can't separate the VAT increase from the other financial pressures - rise in employer NI and rise in NMW being two obvious ones. Many private schools in my area have been struggling financially since at least the 1990s, there has been a clear trend of going co-ed, mergers, land sales etc.

Schools don't pay the VAT, the parents do.
What VAT does do is to reduce rolls to the stage that a school becomes u viable. For majority of indy schools 10%+ leaving = unviable.

The government didn't just bring in VAT on fees. It was also increased business rates, NI + NMW. The quadruple whammy is what has sunk these schools.

Most indy schools run on a low surplus ie 1 term, therefore that quadruple whammy just isn't possible to survive.

It’s hard to quantify the facts because individual circumstances vary. For example if I had a year 10,11,12 or 13 child then I’d pay fees until they sat exams where as I would have moved them if it was a different year group like year 2. It doesn’t mean I could afford the fees - it meant that my child’s age forced me into paying by whatever means necessary like remortgaging.

Other data you could look for is the change in the number of kids sitting grammar school exams (some kids would have just sat private school 11+) and Common Entrance and on a local level, you might see more house sales near the “nicer” comprehensives and the catchment shrinking as a result.

A mid year start to the policy was never going to yield immediate data. People usually have a term notice so staying until the end of the school year was going to be common if you’re leaving the sector.

But we can quantify that 16K left throughout academic year 24/5.
Government predicted 3K. So that's 5x the predicted amount, in the first year!