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Ukraine Invasion: Part 55

1000 replies

MagicFox · 01/03/2025 19:58

We're on 55. Slava Ukraini πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ That last one went quickly!

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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events
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DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 18/03/2025 10:38

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The U.S. has resumed military aid to Ukraine and restored intelligence sharing to previous levels, the Pentagon confirmed.

British Foreign Secretary Lemmy stated that the pause in U.S. intelligence and military aid to Ukraine β€œdid not have a significant impact” on the course of the war due to its brief duration.

Erdoğan is working to arrange a White House meeting with Trump in April, Bloomberg reports.
According to the agency’s sources, Erdoğan considers strengthening the strategic partnership between Ankara and Washington crucial for regional stability, as TΓΌrkiye aims to become a key mediator in resolving issues from Ukraine to Syria.

Russian guided bombs have claimed the lives of many Ukrainian soldiers and civilians, playing a key role in the Kremlin’s territorial gains. However, their effectiveness now appears to be diminishing. Russian bloggers close to the air force report that Ukraine has managed to disrupt the bombs’ control systems, Der Spiegel writes.
It seems the Ukrainians have found an antidote to this deadly weapon. The exact method remains unclear, but military expert Thomas Whittington of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) suggests that satellite jamming could be a factor:

β€œWhen a satellite signal reaches Earth, it is very weak. If you create a stronger signal on the same frequency near the receiver, it will mask the signal from space.”

This could send the bomb off course, and Russian sources are already complaining that achieving a hit now requires too many bombs and flights, making such missions increasingly unjustifiable.

If Ukraine can consistently jam Russian glide bombs, it would significantly alter the battlefield. Russian advances, already stalled, would be further hampered by the loss of one of their most important weapons.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Air Force continues to modernize with Western assistance. American F-16s and French Mirages are gradually arriving, with F-16s even spotted near the front line carrying glide bombs. Recent Ukrainian strikes using American and French weaponry have been increasingly effective

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has created an overheated military economy, making a return to normal potentially result in a β€œhard landing,” Reuters columnist Pierre Brianson said.

He notes that the apparent resilience of the Russian economy is an illusion. Meanwhile, the end of Russia’s war in Ukraine remains uncertain, despite the proposal for a 30-day ceasefire. Even if a truce is reached, it is unlikely to shift Russia away from a defense-driven economy.

Officially, military spending accounts for 8% of Russia’s GDP and 40% of the federal budget, though this does not include all defense-related expenditures. Brianson suggests these figures may not decrease significantly if Putin sees a ceasefire as temporary or uses it to prepare for future aggression in Eastern Europe.

β€œHowever, trying to get the economy back on track would pose two problems for Putin. The first stems from a years-long lending boom by big banks,” he notes.

Corporate lending in Russia grew by 18% in both 2023 and 2024. The central bank’s benchmark rate, currently at 21%, should have curtailed such growth. However, since 2022, a law has required banks to finance defense-sector companies at subsidized rates. Preferential loans have also been extended to agricultural, construction, and mortgage borrowers, with subsidized loans now making up about 16% of banks’ total portfolios. This raises concerns about a postwar wave of defaults if defense spending declines and economic growth slows.

The second major challenge is Russia’s worsening demographics. A chronic labor shortage keeps unemployment at about 2%, with civilian industries running at only 80% capacity due to a lack of workers. Currently, 1.6 million jobs remain unfilled, and estimates suggest the labor shortage could reach 2 million to 4 million by 2030.

Theoretically, ending hostilities and demobilizing soldiers could help. However, Russia’s labor force is shrinking by about one million men annually due to demographic decline. Additionally, many of the estimated 600,000 demobilized soldiers will struggle to find jobs, as they often come from the country’s poorest regions and lack the skills needed in the civilian economy.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 18/03/2025 10:46

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

The Trump-Putin conversation is set to take place exactly on the anniversary of the signing of the treaty on Crimea’s β€œaccession” to Russia β€” March 18, 2014.

US-Ukraine presidents’ stormy ties: The problem for Zelensky is how much Trump’s personal feelings dictate overall US policy.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/49072

Meanwhile, the Russian ruble is making noticeable gains ahead of Putin and Trump’s conversation today. The last time it hit 82 per USD was in the summer of 2023.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 55
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 18/03/2025 10:48

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Donald Trump acknowledged (www.c-span.org/program/white-house-event/president-trump-remarks-to-reporters-at-kennedy-center/657361) that his confrontation with President Zelensky in the Oval Office was a deliberate tactic to apply pressure on Ukraine.
He also claimed that the U.S. decision to halt weapons deliveries to Ukraine had no impact on the Ukrainian military.

πŸ‡±πŸ‡Ή Fire at IKEA store in Vilnius was an arson attack ordered by Russian intelligence services
Lithuania’s Prosecutor General’s Office has revealed that Russian operatives recruited two men in Warsaw to carry out terrorist attacks in shopping centers in Lithuania and Latvia for a payment of €10,000.
On May 8, 2024, one of the suspects planted an incendiary device inside an IKEA store in Vilnius, which detonated early the next morning. As a reward, he received a BMW.
The man was preparing another arson attack but was apprehended on his way to Riga.
According to Lithuanian media Delfi, both suspects are Ukrainian citizens under the age of 20.

Law enforcement detains man who manufactured explosives for terrorist attacks in Zaporizhzhia
The SBU and National Police arrested a local resident suspected of being a Russian military intelligence agent and a drug addict.
Investigators discovered that the suspect produced and transported explosives to hidden caches in exchange for promises of β€œeasy money” from Russian handlers.
He has been charged with treason.

Air defense downs 63 drones out of 137; 64 locationally lost

DuncinToffee · 18/03/2025 11:43

The Trump-Putin phone call will take place today between 13.00-15.00 UK time

minsmum · 18/03/2025 12:04

It really feels like Ukraine is being set up.to lose in the short term and in the longer term to be absorbed by Russia. If they are going to be betrayed in this manner why did everyone bother to pretend to support them in the beginning. I can't see any good coming out of these talks

notimagain · 18/03/2025 12:42

If they are going to be betrayed in this manner why did everyone bother to pretend to support them in the beginning.

Well as it stands not everybody is threatening to pull support….as for US support a lot of the apparent change of heart seems to be down to the new administration…

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 18/03/2025 12:48

minsmum · 18/03/2025 12:04

It really feels like Ukraine is being set up.to lose in the short term and in the longer term to be absorbed by Russia. If they are going to be betrayed in this manner why did everyone bother to pretend to support them in the beginning. I can't see any good coming out of these talks

Biden, for all his extreme dithering, did genuinely support Ukraine. It was just Trump getting in ....

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 18/03/2025 12:52

^⚑️ Ukraine's Supreme Court rules illegal mobilization (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-supreme-court-rules-out-illegal-mobilization-isnt-ground-for-dismissal-from-ukrainian-armed-forces/) not grounds for dismissal from military.
The conscription of a person liable for military service during mobilization is irreversible, Ukraine's Supreme Court ruled on March 17, following a lawsuit by a serviceman who claimed he had been drafted illegally. [yikes]^

This is very, very worrying. Ukraine is living with the effects of the autocratic Soviet rule and corruption, and a ruling like this makes things worse not better. Especially as they do seem to be taking people off the streets.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 18/03/2025 13:45

I am told by my friends in Ukraine that the recruiters are brutal. They have sent me videos, hard to believe they are on the same side. They are sometimes persuaded to let you get off the mobilisation bus for $2000 and leave the mobilisation centre for $5000.

It's an absolute moral dilemma. Forcing men to fight who don't want to fight but being faced with an existential crisis. How do you navigate that? Polling Ukraine citizens as to whether they want to continue the fight is one thing but who is polling the trenches? Who is polling the men in hiding?

It's a terrible predicament.

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 18/03/2025 14:29

Swedish media is reporting that Trump plans to recognise Crimea as Russian and will push UN to do the same. And he has some cunning plan for divying up other Ukrainian assets.

marcusoscarsson.se/uppgifter-usa-overvager-hapnadsvackande-besked-om-ukraina/

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 18/03/2025 14:29

I hope it's wrong.

AnnaBalfour · 18/03/2025 14:45

Also US has pulled out of investigating war crimes by Russia, another huge concession with nothing in return.

I’m chomping at the bit to see what the outcome is of the phone call today. I want to be wrong that it will just be further Putin/Russia appeasement.

DuncinToffee · 18/03/2025 14:47

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 18/03/2025 14:29

I hope it's wrong.

Bloomberg were reporting similar

dibly · 18/03/2025 15:00

Yep Crimea has been widely reported, and the US stopping aid for tracing the kidnapped children also feels like a concession.

I think I know the answer, but if Ukraine don’t accept the terms, what are the next steps? US cutting aid again?

heldinadream · 18/03/2025 15:06

Call started an hour late apparently. So an hour to go if allocated duration is adhered to.
I have very little hope of the outcome of this being at all what we would want.

AnnaBalfour · 18/03/2025 15:49

@dibly

Yes they’ll likely cut intelligence, weapons etc, feels like Ukraine is being completely set up. The fact that Trump is solely deciding on what Ukraine can/cannot keep depending on his talks with Putin doesn’t bode well.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 18/03/2025 15:59

God, Russia and the US carving up Ukraine.

The Budapest Memorandum was toilet tissue.

MagicFox · 18/03/2025 16:06

Not just carving up Ukraine - this is about the security of Europe as whole and who is representing Europe during this discussion? That’s right, nobody

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 18/03/2025 16:27

Looks like the call has concluded. What fresh hell will they have β€œagreed”

Igotjelly · 18/03/2025 16:28

MagicFox · 18/03/2025 16:06

Not just carving up Ukraine - this is about the security of Europe as whole and who is representing Europe during this discussion? That’s right, nobody

Edited

In the minds of the autocrats Russia does because Europe is their sphere of influence. It’s so bloody depressing.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 18/03/2025 16:30

And Europe has let them.

MagicFox · 18/03/2025 16:31

Yes. I think we’re heading for a new iron curtain, incorporating part of ukraine.

OP posts:
MagicFox · 18/03/2025 16:33

Mark Chadbourne (bsky):

Macron has announced a French airborne nuclear deterrent base right on the German border - facing Russia.

There’s also going to be massive investment in two new squadrons of Rafales carrying hypersonic air-to-surface nuclear missiles.

Europe rearms.

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 18/03/2025 16:34

From Sky News- World a safer place under Putin and Trump, Russian envoy says

I feel so much better now 🀨

DuncinToffee · 18/03/2025 16:44

German lawmakers have voted to allow a huge increase in defence and infrastructure spending - a seismic shift for the country that could reshape European defence.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62z6gljv2yo

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