UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights
The U.S. has resumed military aid to Ukraine and restored intelligence sharing to previous levels, the Pentagon confirmed.
British Foreign Secretary Lemmy stated that the pause in U.S. intelligence and military aid to Ukraine βdid not have a significant impactβ on the course of the war due to its brief duration.
ErdoΔan is working to arrange a White House meeting with Trump in April, Bloomberg reports.
According to the agencyβs sources, ErdoΔan considers strengthening the strategic partnership between Ankara and Washington crucial for regional stability, as TΓΌrkiye aims to become a key mediator in resolving issues from Ukraine to Syria.
Russian guided bombs have claimed the lives of many Ukrainian soldiers and civilians, playing a key role in the Kremlinβs territorial gains. However, their effectiveness now appears to be diminishing. Russian bloggers close to the air force report that Ukraine has managed to disrupt the bombsβ control systems, Der Spiegel writes.
It seems the Ukrainians have found an antidote to this deadly weapon. The exact method remains unclear, but military expert Thomas Whittington of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) suggests that satellite jamming could be a factor:
βWhen a satellite signal reaches Earth, it is very weak. If you create a stronger signal on the same frequency near the receiver, it will mask the signal from space.β
This could send the bomb off course, and Russian sources are already complaining that achieving a hit now requires too many bombs and flights, making such missions increasingly unjustifiable.
If Ukraine can consistently jam Russian glide bombs, it would significantly alter the battlefield. Russian advances, already stalled, would be further hampered by the loss of one of their most important weapons.
Meanwhile, Ukraineβs Air Force continues to modernize with Western assistance. American F-16s and French Mirages are gradually arriving, with F-16s even spotted near the front line carrying glide bombs. Recent Ukrainian strikes using American and French weaponry have been increasingly effective
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has created an overheated military economy, making a return to normal potentially result in a βhard landing,β Reuters columnist Pierre Brianson said.
He notes that the apparent resilience of the Russian economy is an illusion. Meanwhile, the end of Russiaβs war in Ukraine remains uncertain, despite the proposal for a 30-day ceasefire. Even if a truce is reached, it is unlikely to shift Russia away from a defense-driven economy.
Officially, military spending accounts for 8% of Russiaβs GDP and 40% of the federal budget, though this does not include all defense-related expenditures. Brianson suggests these figures may not decrease significantly if Putin sees a ceasefire as temporary or uses it to prepare for future aggression in Eastern Europe.
βHowever, trying to get the economy back on track would pose two problems for Putin. The first stems from a years-long lending boom by big banks,β he notes.
Corporate lending in Russia grew by 18% in both 2023 and 2024. The central bankβs benchmark rate, currently at 21%, should have curtailed such growth. However, since 2022, a law has required banks to finance defense-sector companies at subsidized rates. Preferential loans have also been extended to agricultural, construction, and mortgage borrowers, with subsidized loans now making up about 16% of banksβ total portfolios. This raises concerns about a postwar wave of defaults if defense spending declines and economic growth slows.
The second major challenge is Russiaβs worsening demographics. A chronic labor shortage keeps unemployment at about 2%, with civilian industries running at only 80% capacity due to a lack of workers. Currently, 1.6 million jobs remain unfilled, and estimates suggest the labor shortage could reach 2 million to 4 million by 2030.
Theoretically, ending hostilities and demobilizing soldiers could help. However, Russiaβs labor force is shrinking by about one million men annually due to demographic decline. Additionally, many of the estimated 600,000 demobilized soldiers will struggle to find jobs, as they often come from the countryβs poorest regions and lack the skills needed in the civilian economy.