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Ukraine Invasion: Part 55

1000 replies

MagicFox · 01/03/2025 19:58

We're on 55. Slava Ukraini πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ That last one went quickly!

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OP posts:
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183
Igotjelly · 05/03/2025 15:04

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 05/03/2025 14:55

I imagine - hope - that the US generals would refuse the orders.

Give it time enough for Trump to get the US military under his heel and it might happen. But it won't happen yet, surely.

I would like to think that was the case but the reality is that there will be military generals that are Trump supporters.

Igotjelly · 05/03/2025 15:06

From 5 mins ago (Sky):

The US has stopped sharing "all" intelligence with Ukraine, a Ukrainian source has said.
Previously the source, with knowledge of the situation, said the halt in the flow of intelligence had been "selective", only affecting information that could be used for attacks inside Russia.
"A few hours ago, the exchange of all information was stopped," the source said.

Arayofcalm · 05/03/2025 15:09

It's breaking news

MissConductUS · 05/03/2025 15:34

notimagain · 05/03/2025 14:57

It’s beyond my understanding…

With the current POTUS there seems to be a consistent pattern of behaviour - on almost first contact with an, any issue, after a few opening comments start going off almost tangentially talking absolute extreme nonesense, (first obvious example of that I saw this term was the horribly badly informed, highly misleading anti-DEI rant the day after the Washington DCA midair) and then quietly back off or appear slightly more considered over the following days..

Now that might work with your supposed allies to some degree but it could have quite horrific consequences very rapidly in some circumstances, so I’m not at all comfortable with it.

Edited

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress,You can always ask me whatever you like. 😁

I think that @notimagain has identified the behavior pattern. Trump's instinctive response when he wants something is to start a negotiation with the wildest, most insane demands and positions because he thinks it will advantage him in the negotiations. Like offering someone a tenner to buy their house. He knows you're not going to sell your house for a tenner, but he thinks it gives him a better starting place. I've sold a few houses and gotten lowball offers like this, but it's a business transaction, so you can't take it personally.

You can't blindly apply this approach in non-business transactions, like those involving national security issues and long standing relationships, particularly when there are treaty obligations involved. He's being an arse like this with Canada now, but no, we're not going to invade Canada, and any threats to withhold intelligence sharing or cooperative air defense would be self defeating, so ultimately, they're not going to happen.

Regarding the FAA, there is a longstanding controversy over qualified applicants to their training program being passed over because their race or background

Federal Aviation Administration facing class action over diversity hires

but tying this issue to a midair collision is just obvious misdirection by hand waving.

Federal Aviation Administration facing class action over diversity hires | ICLG

A class action filed years before this week’s fatal air crash in Washington, DC, could shed some light on President Trump’s unverified claims.

https://iclg.com/news/22215-federal-aviation-administration-facing-class-action-over-diversity-hires

MissConductUS · 05/03/2025 15:42

Right, but the CIA Director says it's to get Ukraine to the negotiating table, so it's another instance of Trump's transactional style. From the Sky News article:

CIA director John Ratcliffe called the suspension a "pause" and said American intelligence and military aid could begin flowing again once Mr Trump knows Mr Zelenskyy is serious about peace.

"I think on the military front and the intelligence front, the pause I think will go away," Mr Ratcliffe told Fox Business Network.

I think it was yesterday that I pointed out that the effect this would have is loss of situational awareness and targeting data. Ukraine has it's own intelligence sources, often better than ours (like human intelligence), for situational awareness, and the loss of targeting data doesn't put them at immediate risk, it deprives them of new and fleeting opportunities to hurt the Russians.

PerkingFaintly · 05/03/2025 16:22

Whereas towards Russia, Trump's "transactional style" involves giving concession after concession for nothing in return.

Trump to Russia: we'll cease offensive intelligence operations against you. You don't have to do anything.

Trump to Ukraine: we'll cease helping you with intelligence. We'll decide your "peace" with Russia without you, because you're not worth talking to. Your only job is to sign over your minerals (which deal we're currently re-writing since you last agreed to sign). We'll scream at you publicly if you don't.

PerkingFaintly · 05/03/2025 16:35

And how can Ratcliffe claim that he has suspended intelligence sharing TODAY in order to get Ukraine to the negotiating table?

When the US President stated YESTERDAY in his State of The Union speach that Ukraine has written to him explicitly agreeing to come to the negotiating table.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm2jzpn5j8do

I'm not doubting that Ratcliffe said it. It may well be what he is earnestly repeating to himself in private, too. It's just that it isn't true.

Donald Trump addressing a joint session of Congress at a microphone

Trump says he appreciates Zelensky message on Ukraine peace

The statement indicates a cooling of tensions between the leaders after their fiery meeting last week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm2jzpn5j8do

MissConductUS · 05/03/2025 16:40

PerkingFaintly · 05/03/2025 16:22

Whereas towards Russia, Trump's "transactional style" involves giving concession after concession for nothing in return.

Trump to Russia: we'll cease offensive intelligence operations against you. You don't have to do anything.

Trump to Ukraine: we'll cease helping you with intelligence. We'll decide your "peace" with Russia without you, because you're not worth talking to. Your only job is to sign over your minerals (which deal we're currently re-writing since you last agreed to sign). We'll scream at you publicly if you don't.

I think Trump's challenge with the Russians is that Putin thinks he's winning, so he has little reason to make peace. Russia also doesn't want to have thousands of soldiers demobilized and returning to the motherland. That was politically destabilizing when they pulled out of Afghanistan.

Trump needs Putin more than Putin needs Trump. I think that's ultimately the biggest obstacle in finding a solution that's acceptable to Ukraine and the Europeans.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 05/03/2025 17:15

Just to say ....

Recent events have shaken all of us deeply. The bad news keeps rolling in atm (despite the Russian slowdown in advancing) and sometimes the impact of that political bad news can build up and up on us .. especially as we see what might happen.

But I don't think that war is going to break out imminently.

It's okay to switch off from it all for a few days. Reset. Avoid all news.

The thread isn't going anywhere.

blueshoes · 05/03/2025 17:40

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-4-2025

Key Takeaways:

  • US President Donald Trump ordered a pause on US military aid to Ukraine on March 3, suspending the delivery of critical warfighting materiel.
  • The United States had been providing Ukraine with artillery ammunition, armored vehicles, towed howitzers, Patriot air defense batteries, and long-range rocket and missile systems such as HIMARS and ATACMS β€” many of which are sophisticated systems that only the United States can supply.
  • The frontline in Ukraine does not risk imminent collapse, but the effects of the US aid pause will become more acute over time.
  • The European Commission proposed a plan on March 4 that would enable EU member states to increase defense spending to support Ukraine and strengthen European security. European rearmament is vital for Europe's short- and long-term security, and Europe should pursue these efforts regardless of the status of US aid to Ukraine.
  • Ukraine has significantly expanded its defense industrial production capabilities throughout the war in an effort to eventually meet its military needs independently, but Ukraine's ability to become self-sufficient in the long-term is contingent on continued support from partner states in the short- and medium-term.
  • The Ukrainian Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated on March 4 Ukraine's commitment to work with the Trump Administration to achieve a sustainable and lasting peace in Ukraine.
  • The high casualties in Russia's war in Ukraine are the direct result of Putin's determination to conquer all of Ukraine using horrific and costly tactics, and Putin can dramatically reduce this killing any time he chooses.
  • The Kremlin continues to express cautious optimism about the pausing of US military aid to Ukraine and advanced several narratives as part of efforts to impose additional demands on the United States.
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, and Pokrovsk and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly developing a plan to partially demobilize a limited number of mobilized personnel no earlier than July 2025, likely to address growing societal backlash over the lack of rotations and demobilization of Russian mobilized troops for over two years.
Igotjelly · 05/03/2025 19:13

Macron giving his statement suggesting that Europe needs to prepare for the US not to be beside it. Stating the bleeding obvious there pal!

Igotjelly · 05/03/2025 19:26

Suggesting the French nuclear umbrella will be expanded to cover other parts of Europe (including Germany).

Alexandra2001 · 05/03/2025 19:32

Igotjelly · 05/03/2025 19:13

Macron giving his statement suggesting that Europe needs to prepare for the US not to be beside it. Stating the bleeding obvious there pal!

It's not something the British have said about the US but this pushing Ukraine into talks when the Russians aren't interested seems extremely off behavior.

Then there is the stuff on Greenland and Canada...

Put it this way, the USA is making more threatening moves towards the West then Putin.

Llttledrummergirl · 05/03/2025 19:48

Knowing how these things are reported, not just in their own countries, but across Europe, I wonder if the leaders are tag teaming to encourage us all onto a war footing. Starmer, a considered, we need to think about it. Macro, we need to prepare for it.

It's interesting that he said next week, the heads of military organisations in Europe are getting together. That France is now responsible for the nuclear defence of Europe. I think that our leaders are fully aware that Trump is not an ally, but walking the tightrope of diplomacy to buy time and make preparations. I also wonder if Zelensky is talking mineral deals, not because he believes its the holy grail, but to buy time.

Given the threat to Canada, I wonder where this leaves them. Are we going to need other NATO countries to support them? Are they going to be thrown to the wolves?

Sorry for the musings. So many questions.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 05/03/2025 19:55

Oliver Carroll

America cut a key intel link for alerts at 2pm Kyiv. Before that: targeting data for HIMARS. Ukraine also isn’t receiving realtime information for long-range strikes. β€œTrump wanted a thank you,” says a source. β€œWe will be writing it on graves of dead Ukrainians”

https://x.com/olliecarroll

MagicFox · 05/03/2025 20:08

Macron's speech in English:

You are, indeed, I know it, legitimately concerned about the ongoing historical events that are disrupting the world order. The war in Ukraine, which has caused nearly a million deaths and injuries, continues with the same intensity. The United States of America, our ally, has changed its position on this war, is supporting Ukraine less, and is leaving doubt hanging over the future.
At the same time, the same United States of America intends to impose tariffs on products coming from Europe. Finally, the world continues to become ever more brutal, and the terrorist threat remains strong. Altogether, our prosperity and security have become more uncertain.
It must be said; we are entering a new era. The war in Ukraine has now lasted for more than three years. From the very first day, we decided to support Ukraine and to sanction Russia.
And we were right to do so because it is not only the Ukrainian people who are courageously fighting for their freedom, but it is also our own security that is at stake. Indeed, if a country can invade its neighbour in Europe with impunity, then no one can be sure of anything anymore, and it is the law of the strongest that applies, making peace impossible to guarantee even on our own continent. History has taught us this.
Beyond Ukraine, the Russian threat is here, affecting European countries, affecting us. Russia has already turned the Ukrainian conflict into a global conflict. It has mobilized North Korean soldiers on our continent, Iranian equipment, all while helping these countries to arm themselves further.
Putin’s Russia violates our borders to assassinate opponents, manipulates elections in Romania and Moldova. It organizes cyberattacks against our hospitals to block their operations. Russia tries to manipulate our opinions with lies spread on social media.
And at its core, it is testing our limits. It does so in the air, at sea, in space, and behind our screens. This aggression seems to know no boundaries, and Russia, at the same time, continues to rearm itself, spending more than 40% of its budget on this purpose.
By 2030, it plans to further expand its army with 300,000 additional soldiers, 3,000 tanks, and 300 more fighter jets. So, who can seriously believe, in this context, that today’s Russia will stop at Ukraine? Russia has become, as I speak to you and for the years to come, a threat to France and to Europe. I deeply regret this, and I am convinced that in the long run, peace on our continent will be achieved with a Russia that has returned to being calm and peaceful.
But the situation I am describing to you is what it is, and we must deal with it. So, in the face of this dangerous world, remaining a spectator would be madness. It is a matter of making decisions nowβ€”for Ukraine, for the security of the French people, for the security of Europeans.
For Ukraine, first of all. All initiatives that contribute to peace are steps in the right direction. And I want to acknowledge them this evening.
We must continue to help the Ukrainians resist until they can negotiate with Russia a solid peace for themselves and for all of us. That is why the path to peace cannot involve abandoning Ukraine. Quite the opposite.
Peace cannot be concluded at any price and under Russian diktat. Peace cannot mean Ukraine’s capitulation. It cannot mean its collapse.
Nor can it take the form of a ceasefire that would be too fragile. And why? Because here too, we have the experience of the past. We cannot forget that Russia began invading Ukraine as early as 2014 and that we then negotiated a ceasefire in Minsk.
And that same Russia did not respect this ceasefire. And we were not able to maintain the balance due to a lack of solid guarantees. Today, we can no longer take Russia at its word.
Ukraine has the right to peace and security for itself. And this is in our interestβ€”it is in the interest of the security of the European continent. That is why we are working with our British and German friends, as well as several other European countries.
That is why, in recent weeks, you have seen me bring together several of them in Paris, and why I travelled a few days ago to London to consolidate the commitments necessary for Ukraine. Once peace is signed, to ensure that Ukraine is not invaded by Russia again, we must prepare for it. This will undoubtedly involve long-term support for the Ukrainian army.
It may also involve the deployment of European forces. These would not be going to fight today, they would not be fighting on the front line, but rather, once peace is signed, they would be there to ensure its full respect. As early as next week, we will bring together in Paris the chiefs of staff of the countries that wish to take responsibility in this regard.
Thus, it is a plan for a solid, lasting, and verifiable peace that we have prepared with the Ukrainians and several other European partners, which I defended in the United States two weeks ago and across Europe. And I want to believe that the United States will remain by our side, but we must be prepared in case that is not the case. Whether peace in Ukraine is achieved quickly or not, European states, given the Russian threat I have just described, must be capable of better defending themselves and deterring any new aggression.
Yes, no matter what happens, we must equip ourselves more, strengthen our defensive postureβ€”and this is precisely for peace, to deter. In this regard, we remain committed to NATO and our partnership with the United States of America, but we must do more, strengthen our independence in matters of defence and security. The future of Europe does not have to be decided in Washington or Moscow.
And yes, the threat is returning to the East, and the innocence, in a way, of the last thirty years since the fall of the Berlin Wall is now over. In Brussels tomorrow, at the extraordinary Council bringing together the 27 heads of state and government with the Commission and the President of the Council, we will take decisive steps. Several decisions will be made that France has been advocating for years.
Member states will be able to increase their military spending without it being counted in their deficits. Massive joint financing will be decided to buy and produce, on European soil, ammunition, tanks, weapons, and some of the most advanced equipment. I have asked the government to mobilize so that, on the one hand, this strengthens our armed forces as quickly as possible and, on the other hand, that it accelerates reindustrialization in all our regions.
I will meet with the relevant ministers and industry leaders in the coming days. The European defence that we have been advocating for eight years is therefore becoming a reality. This means European countries better prepared to defend and protect themselves, producing together the equipment they need on their own soil, ready to cooperate more and reduce their dependencies on the rest of the world.
And this is a good thing. Germany, Poland, Denmark, the Baltic states, and many of our partners have announced unprecedented efforts in military spending. So, in this time of action that is finally opening up, France has a special status.
We have the most capable military in Europe, and thanks to the choices made by our predecessors after the Second World War, we have nuclear deterrence capabilities. This protects us much more than many of our neighbours. Moreover, we did not wait for the invasion of Ukraine to recognize the dangers of the world, and through the two military programming laws that I have decided upon and that successive parliaments have voted for, we will have doubled our defence budget in nearly ten years.
But given the evolution of threats and the acceleration I have just described; we will have to make new budgetary choices and additional investments that have now become indispensable. I have asked the government to work on this as quickly as possible.
We will face it, together.
Long live the Republic,
Long live France.

OP posts:
AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 05/03/2025 20:32

Thank you, MagicFox.

DuncinToffee · 05/03/2025 22:40

https://kyivindependent.com/russian-missile-attack-on-hotel-in-kryvyi-rih-kills-2-injures-7/

Russian forces struck a hotel in Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with a missile on March 5, killing two people and injuring 14, the State Emergency Service of Ukraine reported.

AlternativeView · 05/03/2025 22:43

Isn't all this talk, Marcon, nuclear also saying look America we are trying to get our shit together, at long last?

Re stopping intelligence sharing, I'm sure that's going to deeply upset many people involved daily who are massively invested

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 05/03/2025 22:50

Nope it's not just about that and if you can't figure out the implications of stopping intelligence sharing, go look it up.

Llttledrummergirl · 05/03/2025 22:51

Re stopping intelligence sharing, I'm sure that's going to deeply upset many people involved daily who are massively invested

That would be those living under the bombs who will now receive no warning.

Such a callous thing to say given the circumstances in my opinion.

MissConductUS · 05/03/2025 23:11

Llttledrummergirl · 05/03/2025 22:51

Re stopping intelligence sharing, I'm sure that's going to deeply upset many people involved daily who are massively invested

That would be those living under the bombs who will now receive no warning.

Such a callous thing to say given the circumstances in my opinion.

Ukraine has their own system for tracking incoming drones, which are far more numerous than bombs or missiles

https://commsrisk.com/how-russia-and-ukraine-tracks-mobile-phones-on-the-battlefield/

The greater risk is that they’ll run out of air defense missiles.

deeahgwitch · 05/03/2025 23:16

Isn't there anyone in Trump's camp that will tell him "Actually Donald, Putin was the aggressor."

WinterMorn · 05/03/2025 23:19

deeahgwitch · 05/03/2025 23:16

Isn't there anyone in Trump's camp that will tell him "Actually Donald, Putin was the aggressor."

He already knows that. The bigger question is why he won’t address it.

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