Ukraine Invasion: Part 54

[MagicFox]

We're on 54. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
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With regards to defence spending, most European NATO countries are spending at least 2% now. Sure its at least 10 years later than it should have been (2014 should have been a massive wake up call) but its very clear now that Europe understands the need for defence now. I strongly suspect many countries will increase spending further over the next few years too.

Will history find that there was massive interference in the 2024 US elections by Russia? It is known that Russia has the means to interfere with elections especially in the internet age and there have been suggestions Russia has attempted interference before.

Was Russia behind spread of Republican attack ads or mass dissemination of material that supported the republican cause?

One concern I have for the future is that it seems very much in Russia's interest to interfere in 'weak' democracies and use the democratic principles to his advantage in seeking to sew division. How much budget havw the Russians devoted to pushing right wing parties in both the US and Europe?

I am very sure they are meddling in them all, to greater or lesser degrees.

Regarding Russian interference in US elections, it was found to have interfered in the 2016 election: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mueller_report

The report states that Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election was illegal and occurred "in sweeping and systematic fashion", and was welcomed by the Trump campaign as it expected to benefit from such efforts. It also identified multiple links between Trump associates and Russian officials and spies,about which several persons connected to the campaign made false statements and obstructed investigations. Mueller later stated that his investigation's findings of Russian interference "deserves the attention of every American".

On the news this morning: Trump is blaming Ukraine for not 'making a deal' with Russia before Russia attacked in 2022.

Setting aside whether that was even possible - it really shines a light on Trump's mindset. Powerful nations have a right to demand territory and it's on the weaker partner just to give in. You can see that in Trump's statements on Greenland, Panama, even Canada. It's a shift back into military imperialism. That mindset was always there (for example, 2003 and Iraq) but it used to be cloaked in humanitarian excuses. Now it isn't.

If (when?) Trump/Musk starts in on 'reforming' the armed forced in the US, then I fear that the army will be made to serve an autocrat 's personal wishes.

Not saying this will happen but both Trump and Musk are dictatorial in nature and neither respect the checks and balances built into the system, which are there for good reason.

Will it be Canadas fault when Trump takes it? Greenland? Mexico?

He's setting the scene and framing the argument.

These negotiations feel to me like this is actually about the US-China competition and America is saying screw Europe, we need to get Russia away from China and align with them. It's about counterbalance and Europe and ukraine don't matter. They're going to cooperate with Russia in the Arctic as a way to push China out. Trump won't need Greenland then because the US will be reigning supreme there with Russia. As long as it's not China. Getting into bed with the wolf basically.

I’m honestly not convinced Trump is that strategic. He sees an easy win that he thinks makes him look like the great deal maker and perhaps earns him a Nobel peace prize, I’m not sure he’s looking much further than that to be honest.

Keith Kellogg has just arrived in Kyiv for talks with Zelenskyy.

Well that's going to be an awkward conversation in many ways isn't it.

@Igotjelly I think he is: if you think about his strongman world view, this entirely macro way of looking at it makes sense

I don't think Trump is strategic at all. So far the plan seems to be to pick a fight with every country on the planet apart from Russia, Israel and Saudi.

He hasn't bullied us too much yet but he will if we show any signs of a backbone.

I think that more half his policy towards Ukraine is triggered by personal aminosity to Zelensky. That plus a general tendency to pick the bully over the victim as clearly better and stronger.

Well I'm pretty sure one reason he admires Putin is because Putin has been in power for 20 years and has set things up so he is still in power in the 2030s.
It's likely Trump has a similar strategy. Can you see him happily stepping down in 4 years?

And judging by the American voters as long as Trump throws a sop every now and again like more gun freedom, kicking out some more immigrants (he has just shipped many Asian immigrants to Panama and they have decided they want to go home) - stricter abortion laws, whatever, reduced taxes - he will get voted back in,

So we could, in the UK, be left behind like a third world country along with much of the rest of Europe whilst Putin, Trump, Musk, Bezos, rule the world, their style.

And Xi Jingping.

I think Xi Jinping is the only leader who can keep Putin from actually spreading chaos in his country, ironically because China has such extreme state control. No easy way for Putin to spread his strife.

I do wonder how long Putin will live. He really doesn't look well.

One of the very saddest things in all this is the conclusion that humans really are persuadable to work against their own best interests and how vulnerable we are en masse to propaganda, when you see how MAGA and the Russian population swallow outright lies without examining all sides of a question. The politicians who speak of keeping the population quiet with bread and circuses aren't entirely wrong.

(And I'm well aware that we only get one side of the Ukranian news and a lot that's painful will come to light later; but the fundamental fact remains that this is a war of conquest and hundreds of thousands are suffering)

I do think @MagicFox makes a valid point about the US vs China situation and I'm so alarmed by what's going on that I've had to ask myself why would an ally behave so treacherously. Ultimately, the US is going to organise their priorities according to their military intelligence and China will be at the top of their threat list - militarily, geographically, economically...They don't want to be hamstrung ad infinitum by what is going on in Europe. I can also believe that some funds will have been embezzled, not by Zelenskyy, but by members of his government. I want to make it clear that none of what I've put forward means any of this shit show is remotely OK. I think what I'm taking on board from this though is that we always need to keep one eye on China no matter what else is happening in the world.

Well we know only the good die young. I reckon he and Trump will get less and less healthy but cling on like some horrid authoritarian limpet!

@Llttledrummergirl
@WinterMorn

Just to clarify my strongly views

1. time is fast running out for the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the sacrifices already made by its citizens. If Zelensky is presented with a peace deal he and the Ukrainian people find unacceptable then he needs another option.
2. that other option is for other European countries to actually provide the military hardware to make up the shortfall from the US. If countries like Spain don't have the hardware then they can simply buy it in from the US. This needs to happen now and not empty promises or strong speeches.
3. hand wringing conferences organised by Macron are just embarrassing they deliver nothing and just make Europe look even more irrelevant.
4. the US is refocusing its military spending towards the Far East where they perceive a greater threat from China. This is their strategic decision to make and they have given plenty of warning to both the Europeans and Ukraine that US military support would be scaling down.
5. there are too many posters on this thread that are more interested in blaming it all on Trump and the US then they are on preserving the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
6. by the public conveniently blaming Trump and failing to hold the European NATO members to account for Ukraine and their decades long unacceptably low defence spending then these European countries will not learn their lesson, still not increase defence spending ("ahh it's not our fault , it's all the fault of Trump ") and simply embolden Putin to take more territory.

Real action by Europe to provide more military equipment to save Ukraine needs to happen this week, no ifs no buts. Zelensky needs a Plan B rather than a fait accompli from Trump / Putin. Yet by pointing out the hard realities and failing to jump on the popular "let's blame it all on Trump" bandwagon this somehow makes me a Putin apologist!

I think you’ve already made your “strongly views” quite clear.

I agree with much of what you have said. I agree about what needs to happen and what the UK and Europe should do.

However where I disagree. The US is not behaving at all well. They are aligning themselves with Putin. They are betraying their allies. I don't believe their behaviour will help their own security. If they wanted a strategic withdrawal from Europe this is not the way to do it.

I really don't think you're a Putin apologist and you make some very good points, though I don't agree about the Macron conferences. It's possible that something may evolve from them.

@Igotjelly

"I think you’ve already made your “strongly views” quite clear."

Sorry - typo that should have read "strongly held views".

I also think that blaming the US is natural when you see an erstwhile trusted ally (for a lifetime) suddenly going belly up and wriggling on its back towards vicious enemies that up until now it's fought hard to keep in check.

Plus the betrayal of the guarantees.

Yes, the EU has made serious mistakes; but give us time to mourn the loss of a trusted ally that many looked up to, and please respect that the US is currently betraying all that it used to stand for and yes, people are going to comment on that.

Plus ... it means that Ukraine is being fucked over. Yet again.