Ukraine Invasion: Part 52

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 52. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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Not a man you'd want to shake hands with though is he!

DOGE 🙄

Ah yes, Musk the transparent and free speech advocate, as long as you don't say what he dislikes.

I had to laugh reading the Donald's X post announcing all this nonsense - he refers to Musk as the Great Elon Musk, with a capital G like it's an actual title. 😂 What plonkers these men reveal themselves to be, all the time. Bloody great inflated windbags, the lot of them.

Pro-RU Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence?!

She's a gift for Putin.

I can't work it out. Is it deliberate trolling - obviously she is totally unqualified so is it a signal of "these are figureheads who can do nothing, all power and influence is elsewhere". Do you know, i think I'd prefer that to the idea that she's been honestly appointed. wtf?!

Seems she’s into conspiracy theories. It just keeps getting worse and worse. Even if Senate blocks the appointment (and that will be interesting to watch in terms of whether a Republican senate will challenge Trump), it feels as though Putin is going to have a free hand to do anything in Europe and the US will just sit on its hands looking the other way. European countries need to rearm now in order to defend themselves.

https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2024/11/tulsi-gabbard-nomination-security/680649/

She’s known chiefly for her opposition to American wars abroad — and sympathetic views on autocrats like Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad.

www.politico.com/news/2024/11/13/trump-pick-tulsi-gabbard-stuns-intel-word-00189492

It’s a circus, with such serious implications for the rest of the world. Horrific.

is this what we’re looking at now?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/14/nuclear-weapons-war-new-arms-race-russia-china-us

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-13-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The Kremlin is attempting to dictate the terms of any potential "peace" negotiations with Ukraine in advance of US President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration. The manner in which the Kremlin is trying to set its terms for negotiations strongly signals that Russia's objectives remain unchanged and still amount to full Ukrainian capitulation. The Kremlin does not appear any more willing to make concessions to the incoming Trump administration than it was to the current administration.
• Lavrov's pre-emptive rejection of the potential suggestion to freeze the current frontline further indicates that Russia is not interested in softening its approach or demands in negotiations and maintains its objective of total Ukrainian capitulation, which Russian President Vladimir Putin explicitly outlined in June 2024.
• Ukrainian security services reportedly assassinated a Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) official in occupied Crimea on November 13.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian oil executives reportedly rejected a proposal to merge Russia's three largest oil companies. Contradictory reporting on the proposed Russian oil merger highlights a possible factional struggle between close affiliates of Putin and Russian energy executives.
• South Korean and US intelligence separately confirmed that North Korean troops have deployed into combat alongside Russian forces in Kursk Oblast.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and Ukrainian forces recently regained positions near Chasiv Yar.
• Russian forces continue to heavily rely on refurbished tanks and armored vehicles pulled from storage to replace vehicle losses during ongoing combat operations, but likely will not be able to sustain these losses in the long term.

In a way I hope Russia plays hardball and refuses Trump an easy ‘win’ by way of a bad deal for Ukraine along the current lines. I think it opens up room for Trump to lose his limited patience and decide to back Ukraine if Zelenskyy is willing to hold his nose and flatter Trump’s ego a bit.

Afraid so. Sometimes I listen to spiritual podcasts etc (don't judge me, they help me go to sleep!) and atm they're all saying that all this upheaval is related to an amazing awakening of humanity. As if! We're going backwards, and fast.

There are millions of average people doing wonderful things every day. We must never lose hope because the voices that we hear are just the ones that shout the loudest.

People doing their best and actually making a difference are usually far less willing to make a fuss, they just get on with it.

Hope so. I suppose we do have to remember that we are enmeshed in the worst of it because we're researching and analysing everything relating to the worst of things. At the same time, I want more people to wake up to this and get behind eg defence spending, resilience to misinformation and divisive ideologies etc

Can't remember if I've flagged this already but Sam Harris has done a pretty excellent talk on the US election, why the Democrats lost and what's at stake in society generally. Recommend this: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/making-sense-with-sam-harris/id733163012?i=1000676525003

In terms of Trump's appointments to power, I suggest people don't read the top half of the Kyiv Indep roundup.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Trump to appoint (kyivindependent.com/trump-to-appoint-ukrainian-peace-envoy-soon-to-lead-talks-on-ending-war-with-russia-fox-news-reports/) Ukrainian peace envoy 'soon' to lead talks on ending war with Russia, Fox News reports citing its multiple undisclosed sources.
"You're going to see a very senior special envoy, someone with a lot of credibility, who will be given a task to find a resolution, to get to a peace settlement," one of the sources said.

⚡️ Trump wants to bring Ukraine, Russia to negotiating table (https://kyivindependent.com/trump-waltz-negotiations/), Mike Waltz, Trump's pick for a national security advisor, told Voice of America (Voa) on Nov. 13.

⚡️Biden, Xi to discuss China's support for Russia (kyivindependent.com/biden-xi-to-discuss-chinas-support-for-russia-at-upcoming-summit-in-peru/) at upcoming summit in Peru.

⚡️ Biden invites Trump (kyivindependent.com/biden-to-host-trump-in-white-house/) to White House to talk over transition.

Republican party secures (kyivindependent.com/us-house-results/) House of Representatives in election clean sweep.
The Republican Party has managed to maintain control of the U.S. House of Representatives, unofficial results show, securing the required 218 out of 435 seats in the chamber according to projections published by CNN on Nov. 13.

President-elect Trump announced on Nov. 13 that Tulsi Gabbard would take on the role of director of national intelligence, marking a notable shift for the former Democrat who has opposed U.S. support for Ukraine and had previously been accused of promoting Russian narratives. https://kyivindependent.com/trump-taps-ukraine-skeptic-tulsi-gabbard-for-director-of-national-intelligence/

⚡️Trump nominates loyal backer Matt Gaetz as attorney general (kyivindependent.com/trump-nominates-loyal-backer-matt-gaetz-as-attorney-general/). [wtHELL]

⚡️Trump team plans to fire Pentagon officers (kyivindependent.com/trump-team-plans-to-fire-pentagon-officers-reuters-reports/), Reuters reports.
The list of those to dismiss may include the Joint Chiefs of Staff, sources said, but the plans for the firings are still in the early stages of development.

⚡️ Ukraine repels Russian attempt to enter Kupiansk, (kyivindependent.com/kupiansk-russian-attack/) military says.

⚡️ Military donations in Ukraine plummet (kyivindependent.com/military-donations-in-ukraine-plummet/) as war pressure mounts, Bloomberg reports.
Military donations in Ukraine have fallen sharply amid rising financial pressures and war weariness, with major charities reporting drops by 20% or more in 2024, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 13.

Democracy endangered: What's next for Georgia? ()
Georgia stands at a crossroads. Thousands took to the streets after the Russian-friendly ruling party declared victory with 54% of the vote in the Oct. 26 parliamentary elections.

Trump's administration picks – what do they mean for Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/trumps-administration-picks-what-do-they-mean-for-ukraine/)?

⚡️Putin cuts (kyivindependent.com/putin-approves-reduction-of-payments-for-injured-in-war-against-ukraine/) payments for wounded in war against Ukraine.
The current maximum amount of compensation is 3 million rubles (nearly $29,000), but the severity of the injury is not considered for its allocation. The change approved by Putin classifies injuries into three categories.

⚡️6th German IRIS-T to arrive (kyivindependent.com/6th-german-iris-t-to-arrive-in-ukraine-by-end-of-2024-zelensky-says/) in Ukraine by end of 2024, Zelensky says.

⚡️Slovakia signs (kyivindependent.com/slovakia-signs-pilot-contract-for-purchase-of-natural-gas-from-azerbaijan/) pilot contract for purchase of natural gas from Azerbaijan.
SPP may also consider a longer-term agreement, as it is also preparing to cut off Russian gas supplies through Ukraine.

⚡️Notorious Ukrainian judge temporarily suspended (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-most-notorious-judge-temporarily-suspended-from-justice-administration/) from justice administration.
Vovk has become a symbol of injustice, lawlessness, and impunity in Ukraine. Cases against him have been blocked and sabotaged by prosecutors, investigators, and courts for several years.

⚡️Foreign Ministry responds (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-foreign-ministry-responds-to-rumors-of-kyivs-potential-to-build-nuclear-bomb/) to rumors of Kyiv's plans to build nuclear bomb.
"Ukraine is committed to the NPT (the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons); we do not possess, develop, or intend to acquire nuclear weapons," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi said via X.

⚡️ Moscow court issues arrest warrants (kyivindependent.com/russia-icc/) for ICC judges involved in Russia-linked cases.
ICC Second Vice-President Reine Alapini-Gansou was one of the judges who issued arrest warrants for Russian proxies from South Ossetia over alleged war crimes in Georgia in 2008.

⚡️Nearly 30 Russian airlines may go bankrupt (kyivindependent.com/nearly-30-russian-airlines-may-go-bankrupt-in-2025-media-reports/) in 2025, accounting for 26% of domestic passenger traffic, Russia's Izvestia newspaper reported on Nov. 13.
Russian airlines fear a deterioration in their financial condition and the revocation of their operator's certificates due to accumulated debts for leasing foreign aircraft, the media reported. @notimagain [although 'may' is not the same as 'will']

⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 2, injure 28 (kyivindependent.com/attacks-104/) over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson NOV 14, 2024
Weekly casualties reach new heights (6th highest for daily ones)
■ 2nd biggest equipment & vehicle losses & most this year so far
■ Record weekly APV losses as well
■ Increased 🇷🇺 strikes, unfavorable strike ratio

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Senator John Thune of South Dakota, who has consistently expressed support for Ukraine, will become the new leader of the Republican faction in the US Senate.

🇰🇷 Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections has prompted South Korea to reconsider the possibility of sending weapons directly to Ukraine. However, no decision has been made yet, according to Bloomberg.

🇺🇦🇳🇴 Ukraine and Norway have signed an important agreement between the Defense Procurement Agency of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense and the Norwegian Defense Materials Agency (NDMA), according to the Ministry of Defense.
This agreement opens up new opportunities for the exchange of information on the arms market, as well as for joint research and the development of innovative military technologies.

On November 13 at @websummit, Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Digital Transformation, Alex Bornyakov, unveiled CodeUA, a new national marketplace designed to connect global businesses with top Ukrainian tech companies.
The platform aims to transform international collaboration with Ukraine’s thriving IT sector, known for its high-level expertise and dedication to excellence.
With around 5,000 companies and more than 300,000 skilled professionals, Ukraine's tech sector plays a crucial role in driving the European tech market. Ukrainian IT firms collaborate with numerous Fortune 500 giants, including Amazon, Apple, IBM, Cisco, Google, and Nvidia, integrating their code into products used by billions of people worldwide.

The Helsinki City Council has decided to transfer surplus property to Ukraine, including old vehicles, valued at approximately 77,000 euros. This equipment was deemed unnecessary by the city’s departments and will be sent to Ukraine as part of humanitarian aid, according to the city’s website.

Admiral Rob Bauer, the head of NATO's military committee, expressed that if Russia did not possess nuclear weapons, Western leaders might have already deployed troops to assist Ukraine in the ongoing war. He pointed out the significant difference between past conflicts, such as the fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan, and the current situation in Ukraine, noting that nuclear capabilities fundamentally alter the calculus.

In Moscow, the Gulag History Museum was closed down, allegedly due to ‘violation of fire safety regulations.’
Founded in 2001, the museum is dedicated to the memory of the victims of repression in the USSR.

Units of the Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Protection Forces from the Support Forces are using flame-throwing systems ‘Sivalka-VM8’ to target Russian positions.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

The Russian film company “Mosfilm” has handed over 36 old tanks and armored vehicles from its stock to the occupying forces.
This includes 28 T-55 tanks, eight PT-76 tanks, six BMP infantry fighting vehicles, and eight tractors from the 1950s. According to the studio’s director, they were transferred to the Russian military in 2023.

The EU Court has denied (curia.europa.eu/jcms/upload/docs/application/pdf/2024-11/cp240192en.pdf) Ukraine’s request to register the trademark “Russian warship, go f*ck yourself.”
Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service attempted to register this trademark in 2022 for a wide range of goods and services. However, the European Union Intellectual Property Office (EUIPO) rejected the registration in 2023, a decision now upheld by the European Court.
The court explained that the phrase has become a well-known political slogan and a symbol of Ukraine’s resistance against Russian aggression. It has been used primarily in a political rather than a commercial context. In the court’s view, the phrase cannot serve the primary function of a trademark, as consumers would perceive it as a political message rather than an indication of the origin of goods or services.

28% of Ukrainians believe EU accession will take up to 5 years, and 15% believe it will take 1-2 years.
This is a much more realistic view of the timeline for EU accession than in March 2022, when 61% believed that it would take 1-2 years!

“This is a well-weighed decision”: Zakhar Endzhievsky, Krasnoyarsk’s wealthiest deputy, announced he’s joining the “Special Military Operation”

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

With western aid having slowed to a trickle for 5 months, Russians now advancing at fastest pace since the initial invasion
Another hard winter lays ahead for Ukraine.
www.kyivpost.com/post/42201

Kyiv Post Morning News Roundup for November 14th, 2024
www.kyivpost.com/post/42199

BACK TO THE USSR — Russian soldier faces 35 years in prison for surrendering to Ukraine
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/42194

Ukraine’s largest natural gas producer, Naftogaz has boosted production by 6% in the first ten months of 2024, reaching 12.3 billion cubic meters, despite the ongoing Russian invasion. This increase supports Ukraine’s push for stable winter energy supplies.
Russian forces have focused on Ukraine’s resource-rich regions, aiming to seize some of Europe’s largest mineral and petroleum reserves for its rapidly growing war machine.

10 years of Russian occupation has left Crimea in a state similar to Russia itself, with anything of value looted and finding it's way into the web of standardized Russia corruption.
Another bridge has collapsed, this time on the Dzhankoy-Maslovo road.

With western aid having slowed to a trickle for 5 months, Russians now advancing at fastest pace since the initial invasion
Another hard winter lays ahead for Ukraine.
www.kyivpost.com/post/42201

Why has aid slowed to a trickle? Biden has this and next month to send supplies? Is Starmer not sending aid because of finances? Are other countries holding on to their weapons?

I was coming to the conclusion that Ukraine had lost its eastern regions with Trump in the White House but naively surprised about Putin insisting on total capitulation. A negotiation tactic? Or a belief that this is possible as the US will no longer support Ukraine under Trump’s non interventionist stance?

Highly recommend this mornings Brussels Sprouts podcast on what Trump means for Europe. Afraid it's a bit depressing, but important: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/brussels-sprouts/id1238007695?i=1000677049313

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️European Commission approves (kyivindependent.com/european-commission-approves-4-3-billion-for-ukraine-under-ukraine-facility-program/) $4.3 billion for Ukraine under Ukraine Facility program.

Kyiv's European partners are increasingly preparing for a deal that could include Ukraine giving up on some of its territories in return for security guarantees, the Washington Post reported on Nov. 13, citing interviews with 10 current and former Western officials. https://kyivindependent.com/european-officials-peace-deal-wp/ [I recall a certain security deal when Ukraine gave up its nukes. I hope if this happens they use all their peace time to re-arm heavily]

⚡️ Abandoning Ukraine would be worse for US than Afghanistan withdrawal (kyivindependent.com/hague-on-ukraine-afghanistan/), former U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague says.

⚡️Ukraine's sovereign bonds surge (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-sovereign-bonds-jump-after-trumps-victory-as-investors-expect-peace-deal-ft-reports/) after Trump victory as investors expect peace talks, FT reports.

⚡️ Russian soldiers murdered civilian (kyivindependent.com/russian-soldiers-murdered-civilian-in-donetsk-oblast-village-prosecutors-say/) in Donetsk Oblast village, prosecutors say.

⚡️Hegseth's nomination for defense secretary 'shocks (kyivindependent.com/hegseths-nomination-for-defense-secretary-shocks-pentagon-officials-politico-says/)' Pentagon officials, Politico reports
Pentagon officials are "shocked" and "alarmed" by President-elect Donald Trump's decision to nominate Fox News anchor and veteran Pete Hegseth as U.S. defense secretary, Politico reported on Nov. 13.

⚡️Russia threatens to expel UN monitors (kyivindependent.com/russia-threatens-to-expel-un-monitors-from-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant/) from Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
IAEA experts may only remain at the occupied nuclear facility "as long as our country considers their stay there to be justified," Russia's Foreign Ministry warned.

The Defense Ministry plans to finalize a bill defining the procedure and conditions for discharging military personnel from service by Dec. 18 this year, secretary of the parliamentary defense committee Roman Kostenko told Ukrainska Pravda on Nov. 14. https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-pledges-to-draft-bill-on-demobilization-by-dec-18-official-says/

We asked experts to review Russia's Su-57 fighter jet performance (kyivindependent.com/we-asked-experts-to-review-russias-su-57-fighter-jet-performance-at-airshow-china-2024/) at Airshow China 2024
Russia's prized Su-57 fighter jet made an impressive aerobatic display during a demonstration flight at the Airshow China 2024 aerospace exhibition in Zhuhai.

⚡️Chinese oil refinery buys (kyivindependent.com/chinese-oil-refinery-buys-west-african-crude-instead-of-russian-iranian-bloomberg-reports/) West African crude instead of Russian, Iranian, Bloomberg reports.
Private Chinese oil refinery Landbridge Petrochemical Co. has made a rare purchase of a shipment of West African oil instead of typical import from sanctioned Iran and Russia, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 14.

⚡️Construction of 2 new power units underway (kyivindependent.com/construction-of-2-new-power-units-underway-at-south-ukraine-nuclear-power-plant/) at South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant.

⚡️Ukraine's 'internal resilience plan' (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-internal-resilience-plan-to-be-presented-next-week-zelensky-says/) to be presented next week, Zelensky says.

Germany's Economy Ministry instructed its state-operated import terminal "to reject LNG deliveries from Russia until further notice," the Financial Times reported on Nov. 14. https://kyivindependent.com/germany-orders-port-to-reject-russian-lng-deliveries/

⚡️EU preparing more sanctions against Russia's shadow fleet (kyivindependent.com/eu-preparing-more-sanctions-against-russias-shadow-fleet-bloomberg-says/), Bloomberg says.

⚡️France-trained brigade of Ukrainian soldiers (kyivindependent.com/france-trained-brigade-of-ukrainian-soldiers-prepares-for-deployment/) prepares for deployment, Associated Press reports.

⚡️Austria's OMV secures $243 million arbitral award for Gazprom's irregular German gas supplies (kyivindependent.com/austrias-omv-secures-243-million-arbitral-award-for-gazproms-irregular-german-gas-supplies/).

⚡️US presence in Poland is 'guarantee of security,' (kyivindependent.com/us-presence-in-poland-is-guarantee-of-security-duda-says-at-opening-of-new-missile-base/) Duda says at opening of new missile base.

Kremlin finds new enemies to target — Russians without kids
(https://kyivindependent.com/kremlin-finds-new-enemy-to-target-russians-without-kids/)

'We are exhausted' (kyivindependent.com/we-are-exhausted-how-ukrainians-cope-with-nightly-russian-drone-attacks/) — how Ukrainians cope with nightly Russian drone attacks
Since Moscow first employed Shaheds in October 2022, these killer drones have contributed to the deteriorating mental health of Ukrainians. Fatigue and tension are now the dominant feelings for Ukrainians, according to a June 2024 survey by Gradus Research.

⚡️London-based Russian anti-war chef (kyivindependent.com/london-based-russian-anti-war-chef-found-dead-in-serbia-afp-reports/) found dead in Serbia, AFP reports.
A renowned Russian chef known for his strong criticism of Russia's war against Ukraine was found dead during a visit to Serbia's capital.

⚡️Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 1, injure 19 (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-ukraine-kill-1-injure-19-over-past-day/) over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson- NOV 15, 2024
■ Decreased combat activity; casualties & equipment losses below 7-day average
■ Considerable special equipment losses however
■ Fewer strikes on both sides but ratio remains unfavorable