Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

There's a bot on FB trying to tell people that "allowing" Ukraine to enter Russian territory is all part of Putin's cunning plan.

Well we all know he’s a master strategist…..

@Mb76

Yes you have mentioned and explained this particular issue many times before in the previous threads and it always made sense to me.

I am repeating myself, but I blame the Russians for making the same stupid mistakes over and over again.

I will try to be more circumspect, but that's a challenge for an American. 😀

Guardian headline - Modi tells Zelenskiy he is ready to play personal role ‘as a friend’ to secure peace. Meh. I don't trust him.

Russia-Ukraine war live: Modi tells Zelenskiy he is ready to play personal role ‘as a friend’ to secure peace (theguardian.com)

I suspect Zelenskyy is pursuing a policy of keeping your friends close and your frenemies closer.

Good point. Don't trust Modi either but Zelensky cannot afford to burn bridges (oh, he just did in Kursk 😁).

Yes you are both right. I trust Zelensky, I'm sure he knows what he's doing.
I'm just not sure it has any mileage beyond immediate optics.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Kamala Harris formally accepts Democratic nomination for president, says she will 'stand strong with Ukraine.' https://kyivindependent.com/kamala-harris-accepts-democratic-nomination-for-president/

⚡️Ukraine withdraws https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-withdraws-from-limited-positions-near-pokrovsk-to-avoid-russian-encirclement-isw-says/ from positions near Pokrovsk to avoid Russian encirclement, ISW says.

⚡️Ukraine launches counterattack in Kharkiv Oblast, advancing 2 square km, brigade says.
Ukraine's 3rd Separate Assault Brigade launched a counterattack in Kharkiv Oblast and advanced almost 2 square kilometers deep into the front line area, the brigade said on Aug. 22. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-launch-counterattack-in-kharkiv-oblast-advance-2-square-km-brigade-says/

India overtook China as the world’s largest importer of Russian oil in July as Chinese refiners bought less due to lower profit margins from fuel production, Reuters reported on Aug. 22, citing a comparison of import data. https://kyivindependent.com/rostov-oblast-oil-depot-fire-ongoing-for-5th-day-russian-officials-report/

⚡️US to announce $125 million military aid package to Ukraine, AP reports. https://kyivindependent.com/us-to-announce-125-million-military-aid-package-to-ukraine-ap-reports/

⚡️Latvia prepares largest batch of drones yet for Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/latvia-prepares-largest-batch-of-drones-yet-for-ukraine/

In a post on X, the country's Defense Minister Andris Spruds said the latest shipment consists of 1,400 drones, and it marked the conclusion of a program between the country's defense ministry and Latvian manufacturers that had procured 2,700 drones in total.

⚡️Ukraine hits Russian platoon base in Kursk region with US glide bombs. “A drone command post, a radio-electronic warfare unit, equipment, weapons, and up to 40 Russian service members were hit,” Oleshchuk said on Telegram. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-hits-russian-platoon-base-in-kursk-region-with-us-glide-bombs-commander-says/

Ukraine attacked a train ferry carrying fuel tanks at the Kavkaz port in Russia's Krasnodar Krai on Aug. 22, the Krasnodar Krai Russian authorities claimed. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-hit-train-ferry-at-kavkaz-port-in-kerch-strait-russia-claims/

⚡️Ukraine's navy has confirmed the sinking of a Russian ferry called the Conro Trader at the Kavkaz port in Russia's Krasnodar Krai on Aug. 22. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-confirms-sinking-of-russian-military-ferry-in-kerch-strait/

⚡️ Germany reportedly investigating 'espionage' drone flights over critical infrastructure.
Several European countries have in recent months reported numerous cases of espionage and sabotage suspected of being carried out at the behest of Russia. https://kyivindependent.com/germany-investigating-espionage-drone-flights-over-critical-infrastructure/

⚡️Ukrainian parliament ratifies https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-parliament-ratifies-strategic-partnership-agreement-with-uk/ strategic partnership agreement with UK.

⚡️Media: Convicts take hostages https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-report/ in Russian prison, kill one.
Convicts took prison employees hostage in a jail in Russia's Volgograd Oblast on Aug. 23 and killed one employee, the Russian state-controlled news agency TASS reported. Andrey Bocharov, governor of Volgograd Oblast, said that four employees were hospitalized with injuries.

⚡️Zelensky grants National Legend of Ukraine award to 11 'outstanding individuals.' https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-awards-11-outstanding-individuals-with-national-legend-of-ukraine-award/

⚡️Russian attacks on Sumy Oblast kill https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-on-sumy-oblast-kills-2-injures-3/ 2, injure 3.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬

• AUG 23, 2024

■ Engagements close to 7-day average, casualties slightly below ■ Modest equipment losses except good APV ones ■ Strike ratio in low double-digits

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi Arrives in Kyiv for Historic Visit
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has arrived in Kyiv for his first official visit to Ukraine. During his meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, they are expected to discuss strengthening economic ties and explore a potential "peace formula" aimed at a ceasefire.

⚡️ Volodymyr Zelenskyy together with the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi honored the memory of children who were killed by Russian aggression

Ukraine and India Strengthen Ties Across Key Sectors During Modi's Visit
During Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Ukraine, both countries reached agreements to enhance cooperation in several key sectors. These include medical collaboration, agricultural development, humanitarian efforts, and cultural exchange. This marks a significant step forward in strengthening bilateral relations between Ukraine and India.

Josep Borrell, the head of EU foreign policy, has called for the removal of restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western weapons within Russian territory. He argues that Ukraine's offensive in Kursk has significantly undermined President Putin's narrative.

U.S. Seeks Clarity from Ukraine on Operations in Russia's Kursk Region
The United States is seeking clarification from Ukraine regarding the objectives of its operations in Russia's Kursk region, particularly in relation to the creation of a potential "buffer zone."

Ukraine Prepared to Provide Education for Children in Kursk Region if Necessary
Ukraine is ready to provide education for children in the Kursk region if the situation persists, according to Deputy Minister of Education and Science Mykhailo Vynnytskyi.

Hungary Threatens to Send Refugees to Brussels Amid EU Sanctions Dispute
Hungary has threatened to send refugees directly to Brussels in response to EU sanctions, according to Bloomberg. The European Court fined Hungary €200 million and imposed a daily fine of €1 million due to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's failure to comply with a ruling on protecting asylum seekers.
The Hungarian government announced that negotiations with the European Commission will begin in September. Should these talks fail, Hungary has indicated it may issue migrants "one-way tickets" to Brussels as a form of protest.

Another fuel tank exploded at an oil depot near Rostov. The oil depot is on fire for the fifth day!

A HIMARS cluster rocket struck a military training ground in Zaporizhzhia, where Russian assault groups were being trained. The attack resulted in enemy casualties, both fatalities (200s) and injuries (300s), as well as the destruction of vehicles.

Putin's Declining Popularity Could Undermine Russia's War Effort, Says The New York Times
An analysis by FilterLabs AI, a company monitoring online comments, indicates that Putin's image losses are growing, which may hinder Russia's ability to continue its war in Ukraine. The research shows that many online discussions label the Ukrainian Armed Forces' advance into Russian territory as a failure of the Russian government and Putin himself.
While Putin still enjoys considerable support in Moscow, dissatisfaction is spreading in more remote regions of Russia. Public sentiment has noticeably soured since Prigozhin's rebellion, with a sharper decline following the start of Ukraine's Kursk operation.

🇺🇦 Day of the State Flag of Ukraine: Key Facts About the Blue and Yellow
Today, Ukraine celebrates the Day of the State Flag! Here are some interesting facts about the country's iconic blue and yellow flag:

• Official Adoption in 1992: Ukraine's state flag was officially approved in 1992, though its use dates back much earlier.

- Historical Roots: In 1918, the blue and yellow flag was carried by the Active Army of the Ukrainian People's Republic, the Ukrainian Galician Army, and ships of the Ukrainian People's Republic's Black Sea Fleet.

• First Appearance in 1848: The flag first appeared over Lviv Town Hall during the national revival in Galicia.
• Inspired by the Galicia-Volyn Principality: The design was inspired by the golden lion on a blue background from the coat of arms of the Galicia-Volyn Principality, though a simpler version with horizontal blue and yellow stripes became more widespread.
• Confirmed in 1918: The blue-yellow sequence was officially confirmed in a 1918 resolution on the naval flag of the Ukrainian People's Republic.
• Banned Under Soviet Rule: The flag was banned under Soviet power in Ukraine, with those using it facing imprisonment. Despite KGB monitoring, patriots continued to display the flag as a symbol of resistance and national pride.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Mongolia indefinitely shelves Moscows plans for Russia's "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/37789

A heightened threat level has been declared at a NATO airbase in Germany — Der Spiegel
A spokesperson for the airbase stated that the alert was raised based on intelligence indicating a potential threat. The second and highest level of threat, known as "Charlie," signifies that there is evidence of "very likely terrorist actions against the Alliance."

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is on the verge of a blackout yet again — Energoatom
Russian shelling has struck the crucial external power line, cutting off the plant's vital electricity supply from Ukraine's energy grid.

On the anniversary of Prigozhin’s death, British intelligence reveals new figures: the once-massive Wagner PMC, which had 50,000 members, has dwindled to just 5,000.
The remaining mercenaries are scattered across Belarus and Africa.

Russia Cannot Cope with Kursk
Pfarrer, having been a former Squadron Leader of SEAL Team 6, explains why the failure of Russia's attempted attack is indicative of larger, systematic problems within the Russian military.

Unable to cope with the idea that Ukrainians are militarily expanding into Russian territory, Kremlin propaganda tells Russians that it's Polish mercenaries.
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/37794

⚡️The ferry attacked by Ukrainian forces at the "Kavkaz" port was carrying 30 fuel tanks, according to local authorities. There were also five sailors on board, whose fate remains unknown.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇩🇪 The prosecutor's office in the German city of Flensburg is investigating an incident involving unidentified drones flying over an industrial area where a shutdown nuclear power plant is located - Bild
According to the preliminary version of the special services, the drones could be launched by Russian agents from ships in the North Sea for sabotage purposes. It is assumed that these are Orlan-10 drones with a range of 500-600 kilometers and a speed of over 100 km/h. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/23710

The new US aid package worth $125 million will include air defense missiles, HIMARS ammunition, shells, etc.

Russian troops cut off an arm of a dead fellow soldier
A reconnaissance UAV of the 12th Azov Brigade recorded a senseless and cruel incident.
Two Russians armed with an axe approached the body of the “two hundredth” and began to carefully chop off his limb. After the “success” of the “operation”, the occupiers returned to their positions.
Whether it was food, looting or a trophy, the motive for the Russians' brutal act remains unknown. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/23714

❗️Prisoners seized a colony in the Volgograd region of Russia. At least one employee of the colony was killed
There are also reports of injuries among the employees, but their number is not specified.
The riot took place in penal colony No. 19 when prisoners seized the colony's employees during a meeting of the disciplinary commission.
The attack was carried out by three prisoners. Russian telegram channels claim that the prisoners are demanding a helicopter and $2 million.

That's the first hint Ive seen that Putin's popularity is sinking. The Levada Centre research has rather found the opposite.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-22-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The Russian military command recently redeployed elements of at least one Russian airborne (VDV) regiment from western Zaporizhia Oblast in response to Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast, possibly in an effort to stabilize the lines and improve command and control (C2) over Russian conscripts.
• The Russian military command reportedly heavily committed elements initially intended for the Russian offensive effort in northern Kharkiv Oblast to the defense of Kursk Oblast.
• The Kremlin may be taking steps to address its border vulnerabilities amid the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and following a series of unsuccessful long-term efforts to improve Russian border security.
• Ukrainian forces marginally advanced throughout their salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued Russian efforts to stop these advances on August 22.
• Recent Russian advances in the Pokrovsk direction appear to have prompted Ukrainian withdrawals from limited positions southeast of Pokrovsk, and Russian forces have likely failed to achieve their apparent objective of tactically encircling Ukrainian forces in the area.
• The tempo of Russian aviation operations is reportedly decreasing throughout most of the theater, although this decreased tempo may be temporary, and its cause is unclear.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a series of successful strikes against targets in Volgograd Oblast and Krasnodar Krai on August 22.
• Russian forces recently advanced north of Siversk, within Chasiv Yar and southeast of Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
• Russian State Duma Committee on Information Policy Head Alexander Khinshtein stated on August 21 that the Russian Union of Journalists and Ministry of Digital Development submitted a bill to the Cabinet of Ministers proposing to grant veteran status to journalists who have worked in Ukraine, the "counter-terrorism operation" zone in Kursk Oblast, and other unspecified combat zones.

@MissConductUS I think repeating your very valid points is a good thing, please don’t stop 🙂
We are on thread 51 with no end in sight, and while a lot of us have been here since the beginning, not everyone has and for their benefit it’s good to have these reminders.

Good point! I drop in and out of these threads, mostly when I'm curious about something I've heard in the news and want some intelligent perspectives

And us regulars never tire of hearing how rubbish the Russians are

Very well, you've convinced me. 😁

I will continue to point out the flaws and weaknesses in the Russian military, no matter how repetitive it becomes.

For those hoping for a bit more chaos in the American election, Robert Kennedy is going to drop out and very likely endorse Trump, which will be a significant change to the race. Kennedy has been polling in a range of 4-7% of the electorate, which could move some of the swing states. More here:

RFK's withdrawal from Arizona's ballot signals a likely end to his presidential bid

His campaign is out of money, so he doesn't really have a choice but to quit, and the Democrats have been suing to keep him off the ballot on technicalities.

Democrats have been suing to keep him off the ballot on technicalities

Why would the Democrats want to keep RFK out of the race if it is helpful to keep him there to split the Trump vote?

Because they thought he would take more support from Biden, who he is closer to politically. They spoiled it by making an enemy of him.

Kennedy and Shanahan Make Democrats Nervous - An endorsement of Trump could create a formidable right-left coalition.

So it's a bit of an own goal by the Democrats.

I will continue to point out the flaws and weaknesses in the Russian military, no matter how repetitive it becomes

Good, as it is always nice to hear!

I saw a young lad selling blueberries and mushrooms outside the supermarket today, went to buy some and it turns out he's a Ukrainian lad who spends his spare time after school picking for hours, then sitting for hours outside the shop to sell them, in order to send the money back to Ukraine to help there. Quite inspiring to see, even a little boy doing all he can to help.

Kennedy has officially dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Drops Out of Presidential Race, Endorses Donald Trump - Polls have indicated his departure from the race could help the former president

It will take a week or two for new polls to show what the impact of this is.

And since we all love a bit of bad news for the Russians, the Ukrainians are using HIMARS to good effect in Kursk.

HIMARS Strikes Obliterate Russian Pontoon Bridges on Kursk River

There was also a HIMARS strike that attacked a Russian troop convoy moving into Kursk with estimated casualties of 500 troops or so (unconfirmed, but there were a lot of destroyed vehicles and dead bodies).

This tells us that the Russians don't have any effective electronic warfare assets in Kursk. Now that the bridges are down, they'll have a hard time moving any in, and if they do, they'll be high-priority targets.

That boy💕I wish I was there. I would have given him all my cash.

@MissConductUS appreciate your explaining about the implications of RFK dropping out of the race. You were right he threw his support behind Trump. Shame about that.

Isn't using HIMARS in Kursk the crossing of a red line of the US in not using weapons on Russian soil. Or is it close enough to the Ukrainian border to come within the exception.

Do you think RFK's more controversial talking points might help or hinder Trump? I can't get a sense of how well liked he is/ how committed his followers are in the US

I did give him all my cash but I unfortunately only had ten euros on me. I did see one old man buy a whole lot of berries and insist that he keep the change, which was lovely to see.