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The Guardian today on the safety of the Lucy Letby convictions

1000 replies

Kittybythelighthouse · 09/07/2024 08:40

This article was apparently months in the making but it was delayed by the reporting restrictions https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jul/09/lucy-letby-evidence-experts-question

“A Guardian investigation has interviewed dozens of these experts and seen further evidence from emails and documents. Those raising concerns include several leading consultant neonatologists, some with current or recent leadership roles, and several senior neonatal nurses. Others are public health professionals, GPs, biochemists, a leading government microbiologist, and lawyers. Several of those still working in the NHS have asked to remain anonymous, fearing the impact if they are named.

These experts said they were acutely aware of the suffering of the families involved and did not want to reopen their trauma, but were so troubled they felt compelled to become involved”

OP posts:
Thread gallery
31
Ratsoffasinkingsauage · 14/07/2024 21:32

The papers very much picked the salacious bits which were hardly mentioned in court. And now they continue to obsess over then like they were key details. They weren’t! But the stuff that convicted her doesn’t sell papers.

ThePure · 14/07/2024 22:15

De Berk and Poggiali were also accused of multiple cases with different methods over time and later found to be innocent
Colin Norris and Ben Geen were accused over a short period and Norris of just using insulin but Ben Geen was accused of using various methods. There was no direct evidence/ the evidence was later proven wrong in all these cases.
The ways she is said to have killed these babies are so speculative I really can't believe that has held up to scrutiny in court.

Cases involving statistics and expert testimony have commonly been the ones where miscarriages of justice occur in the past because juries cannot really test the evidence if they don't fully understand it hence Sally Clark, Angela Cannings.

Drs do scapegoat nurses for their own failings not uncommonly (I can say that I am a Dr). If you read the publicly available MPTS hearing transcripts you will be shocked at the sexual harassment that senior male Drs commonly get away with on nurses.

I don't think it's disrespectful to question her innocence. For the parents it is equally a tragedy if their babies died due to Lucy or due to poor care. The parents whose babies died in Morcambe and Telford are no less victims.

ThePure · 14/07/2024 22:28

Direct evidence- testimony of what? She was never caught doing anything or proven to have done anything that definitely led to a baby dying. It is all so speculative. There is no proven mechanism in most cases. Lying is not in itself evidence of guilt is it (Lucas?)

Stats- no single one of these cases would have stood on their own so how is it that they were somehow considered independently? People at the hospital thought it was Lucy well before the police got involved. No way do I buy they were all investigated with an open mind that 'there could be any explanation' The shift rota was presented as evidence. This is the same exact issue as in all the other cases: looking for evidence of unusual occurrences on the nurses shifts rather than including all instances with an open mind. Texas Sharpshooter fallacy.

lawnseed · 14/07/2024 23:29

I've just been reading the court testimonies on that Reddit page. Apparently baby E died from a massive GI bleed. The blood around the lips was older and partially dried, but bleeding was going on in the GI tract. Apparently premature infants can develop gastric and duodenal ulcers. Could the baby have been distressed and crying because he was in pain from a perforation?

Ratsoffasinkingsauage · 15/07/2024 07:27

@lawnseed

That’s what they thought initially. However, Baby E displayed the same purple patch rash as Baby A- Letby herself admitted this in her police interview and then back peddled in court because she realised that the purple rash was considered evidence of air embolis. This is why NJ pushes her so hard on this point and she pushes back so hard on either not remembering or never seeing it- despite what she said in her police interview and the testimony of the other medical staff present.

We also only have Letby’s narrative for the timing of events in the lead up to the collapse. She made the notes retrospectively and they don’t match the paper sheet or the notes for other patients which show staff members elsewhere in the unit at the time she says they were with her with Baby E. Why do this unless you cover something up? This was well before the consultants had begun to do their own internal investigation.

Ratsoffasinkingsauage · 15/07/2024 07:28

@ThePure All your assertions are wrong.

ThePure · 15/07/2024 08:23

What all my assertions?

  • she was never caught doing anything that definitely led to a baby dying. I thought it was admitted by everyone that all the evidence is circumstantial
  • the shift rota was presented as evidence. It was
  • each single case would not stand on its own and needs the pattern to be proved. This is self
Evident
  • healthcare professionals have been scapegoated for institutional failings in the past. I cited Dr Bawa Garba and David Sellu in support of this
  • cases involving statistics and medical evidence are a common cause of miscarriages of justice. Sally Clark, Angela Canning, Karissa Cox & Richard Carter.
  • judges do counsel juries that lying about something does not mean the person lied about everything and that people lie for many reasons.

If she did falsify records the commonest reason for HCPs to do that is to cover up a mistake. GMC cases are littered with Drs lying stupidly to cover up mistakes where the dishonesty was worse than the mistake. Possibly she was just a shit nurse or one working under extreme pressure in a shit unit where babies were frequently dying.

I remain troubled by her conviction and I suspect that in the fullness of time it will be shown to be unsafe.

A rash is not clinically diagnostic of air embolism BTW. This is something I am certain of as a Dr.

MistressoftheDarkSide · 15/07/2024 11:00

I've been thinking alot about the character analysis of Lucy Letby - and the assassination.

I really think that the biggest reason people are determined to paint her as a pathological criminal mastermind is because she doesn't "appear" to be.

This makes her an unknown - and what do humans fear most? The unknown.

Those absolutely convinced by her guilt swing from how devious, cold, calculating and manipulative she is to then trying to say she was sad, pathetic, attention seeking etc. I mean all those things could be true but there are also reports that she was kind, diligent, fun-loving and reasonably well liked. Oh look, a human being, no more or less complex than any other.

I've seen people speculating that as a serial killer, she might have started on animals. I suspect the presence of two well loved and healthy cats in her care would therefore be regarded by some as her attempt to provide a cover - yet if her urge to maim and kill is a compulsion she can't resist, how on earth did she resist it while under the stress of being under suspicion.

Her being too close to her parents? Obviously an unhealthy relationship there. But she lived independently and had bought her own house. She went on holiday without her parents. Her mother is cited as behaving oddly especially when she cried out in court "You cannot be serious" (or words to that effect) at the guilty verdicts. I don't think disbelief is in any way an appropriate response if you believe your child is innocent. But then serial killers often don't fall far from the tree and Mummy (or Daddy) issues are often cited in the profiles of convicted serial killers.

The lack of psychological evidence about Lucy Letby prior to her arrest is unusual. Saying that the way she presented after arrest by claiming PTSD etc is a sign of her mental instability beforehand, and also an attempt at manipulation is wanting the best of both worlds.

If you are falsely accused of something terrible how do people think you should react? Shock, disbelief, anger and hopelessness if you can't prove your innocence and the system is reluctant to let you seem perfectly logical. And in any case, you can't prove you didn't do something - it can only be proven that you did if the evidence exists. And when the proof is circumstantial and complex and the system starts to feel like an adversarial game with an agenda of its own I think you're allowed to throw an element of paranoia into the mix.

There is alot written about gender bias at play. History tells us we should not be "taken in" by appearance or the alleged projected weakness of women. The women who worked in concentration camps were mothers, daughters, sisters etc yet were complicit in atrocities. All it proves is that given the right circumstances anyone can do terrible things. But there is a danger in trying to be so unbiased, our bias actually swings the other way, especially in such an emotive case as this.

Naturally we want answers in the face of the inexplicable and unthinkable. We want reassurance we can prevent such horrors by understanding them. But there will always be outlying situations and circumstances that defy understanding. Learning to live with that is painful, especially when there are things that do not add up. And that's what we have here. Plenty of things do not add up, but some things are clear. There were systemic issues on that ward reported by staff members regardless of Lucy Letby. The medical evidence can be disputed, and is being robustly so by people qualified to do so.

The argument always comes back to the fact that we "don't know" all the evidence and we "weren't there" in the court room. Fair enough, but plenty has been reported verbatim, and we do know that the prosecutions job is to present a case most likely to secure a conviction. So, they "won". If justice has been served is another matter.

MistressoftheDarkSide · 15/07/2024 11:03

Should say "I don't think disbelief is an inappropriate response...."

The devil being in the detail and all that....

lawnseed · 15/07/2024 11:08

Do air embolisms cause an upper GI bleed?

Yazzi · 15/07/2024 11:12

I think the Guardian article is much more compelling than the New Yorker.

As a lawyer who works in criminal defence, it seems amazing how the evidence she was convicted upon is so utterly circumstantial. I could see that the evidence meets the "balance of probabilities" threshold required for civil cases, but the "beyond reasonable doubt" required for criminal cases? With many dead babies and not one piece of direct evidence?

However clearly the jury and court of appeal feel otherwise.

lawnseed · 15/07/2024 11:17

MistressoftheDarkSide · 15/07/2024 11:00

I've been thinking alot about the character analysis of Lucy Letby - and the assassination.

I really think that the biggest reason people are determined to paint her as a pathological criminal mastermind is because she doesn't "appear" to be.

This makes her an unknown - and what do humans fear most? The unknown.

Those absolutely convinced by her guilt swing from how devious, cold, calculating and manipulative she is to then trying to say she was sad, pathetic, attention seeking etc. I mean all those things could be true but there are also reports that she was kind, diligent, fun-loving and reasonably well liked. Oh look, a human being, no more or less complex than any other.

I've seen people speculating that as a serial killer, she might have started on animals. I suspect the presence of two well loved and healthy cats in her care would therefore be regarded by some as her attempt to provide a cover - yet if her urge to maim and kill is a compulsion she can't resist, how on earth did she resist it while under the stress of being under suspicion.

Her being too close to her parents? Obviously an unhealthy relationship there. But she lived independently and had bought her own house. She went on holiday without her parents. Her mother is cited as behaving oddly especially when she cried out in court "You cannot be serious" (or words to that effect) at the guilty verdicts. I don't think disbelief is in any way an appropriate response if you believe your child is innocent. But then serial killers often don't fall far from the tree and Mummy (or Daddy) issues are often cited in the profiles of convicted serial killers.

The lack of psychological evidence about Lucy Letby prior to her arrest is unusual. Saying that the way she presented after arrest by claiming PTSD etc is a sign of her mental instability beforehand, and also an attempt at manipulation is wanting the best of both worlds.

If you are falsely accused of something terrible how do people think you should react? Shock, disbelief, anger and hopelessness if you can't prove your innocence and the system is reluctant to let you seem perfectly logical. And in any case, you can't prove you didn't do something - it can only be proven that you did if the evidence exists. And when the proof is circumstantial and complex and the system starts to feel like an adversarial game with an agenda of its own I think you're allowed to throw an element of paranoia into the mix.

There is alot written about gender bias at play. History tells us we should not be "taken in" by appearance or the alleged projected weakness of women. The women who worked in concentration camps were mothers, daughters, sisters etc yet were complicit in atrocities. All it proves is that given the right circumstances anyone can do terrible things. But there is a danger in trying to be so unbiased, our bias actually swings the other way, especially in such an emotive case as this.

Naturally we want answers in the face of the inexplicable and unthinkable. We want reassurance we can prevent such horrors by understanding them. But there will always be outlying situations and circumstances that defy understanding. Learning to live with that is painful, especially when there are things that do not add up. And that's what we have here. Plenty of things do not add up, but some things are clear. There were systemic issues on that ward reported by staff members regardless of Lucy Letby. The medical evidence can be disputed, and is being robustly so by people qualified to do so.

The argument always comes back to the fact that we "don't know" all the evidence and we "weren't there" in the court room. Fair enough, but plenty has been reported verbatim, and we do know that the prosecutions job is to present a case most likely to secure a conviction. So, they "won". If justice has been served is another matter.

👏

This sums it up for me and is the reason for my uneasiness regarding this case. The more I scrutinise the details the more questions I'm left with as well.

DancingLions · 15/07/2024 11:31

I do think that nothing can be based on her presentation at Court. It's said she came across as cold and unremorseful.

I think if it were me, by the point it would have got to Court, I would have shut down emotionally entirely. There's only so many times you can protest your innocence when no one is listening. Likewise, I couldn't show remorse for something I hadn't done. Refusing to attend the sentencing, I think I would do the same as I wouldn't be able to take it.

I'm not saying at all that this means she's innocent. Just that I think that nothing can be taken from how she behaved during trial.

I think my take is that she didn't kill anyone deliberately. I think she made mistakes (whether due to her own incompetence or wider issues with the unit or both) and may well have made attempts to cover them up. However, that is totally just my opinion and I might well be wrong.

Freespeechisvital · 15/07/2024 11:40

Great Post @Yazzi
It seems anything that LL did was used as evidence against her.
She seemed fairly popular, had friends, was close to her parents, in fact she moved away from them which is appropriate for a young woman,bought a house, had 2 cats.

All has been used against her
If she was a manic cat murdering wierdo-guilty
She's fairly average -guilty

I'm very concerned regarding the depth of medical errors / poor decision making/ lack of robust leadership in the medical team and the incongruent behaviours depending on who is being held to account.

There seem to be several instances of the medical team clearly making poor/ no decisions and we know that one of the team made a preventable error that lead to a baby's death.

What have been the consequences of not responding to the GI bleed?

It's pretty standard treatment
Bloods and xmatch, endoscopy,Major Blood Loss Protocol,PPI , treat sepsis, coagulation issues.
Yet they didn't do this, in a baby that was expected to do well and eventually go home .
They state they had never experienced this in a neonate, yet a quick search shows this not uncommon and this baby had coagulation issues, ? NEC, low birthweight, had been NBM

All stress factors that can lead to a GI bleeds.
It's actually rarely seen in FT babies

They deemed it something never seen in neonates but no PM or referral to the Coroner ?
I'm a HCP and I would create merry hell if I found out this had happened to one of my patients, they failed in their duty of care and minimised the issue until the eyes were on someone else when it became a major issue never seen, so unusual

So unusual that the medical response was to sit back and do nothing for several hours ?
For a baby who was expected to recover?
So unusual that no PM, referral to the coroner?

There is a massive difference in the deemed severity of the condition and the actions taken here depending on who is deemed at fault .

Reallybadidea · 15/07/2024 12:00

As I said up thread, what about the 8 deaths on the unit that LL wasn't charged with? Given how few babies died in the years before a cluster of 8 (apparently non-suspicious) deaths is in itself alarming.

I've read the child E transcripts, LL's testimony and the cross examination. https://www.reddit.com/r/lucyletby/wiki/index/#wiki_defence

I don't agree with @Ratsoffasinkingsauage summary or interpretation of the transcripts being clear evidence of her guilt. As a HCP I imagined giving evidence about critical situations I was involved with a year or more ago. Honestly, the idea terrifies me because I can say for sure that I would not be able to recall the level of detail that was expected of her.

I find it interesting that it in the main it seems those of us with healthcare backgrounds are sceptical about the evidence and safety of the conviction, whereas those without are more confident that she is guilty.

lawnseed · 15/07/2024 12:13

Apparently she's on several different types of psychoactive medications, including an antidepressant, which could account for her flat affect. She was also moved a few days prior to the trial starting which caused her a lot of mental health difficulties and they had to delay the start of the trial by a week.

MistressoftheDarkSide · 15/07/2024 12:17

I was just coming on to bring up the medication issue. Mood altering drugs are just that - mood altering. Also I did read that she didn't have them with her for a period due to the move, which is hardly helpful.

Kittybythelighthouse · 15/07/2024 12:20

lawnseed · 15/07/2024 11:08

Do air embolisms cause an upper GI bleed?

Repeated intubation attempts often do. Particularly in a hospital where there had already been medical malpractice suits brought (and won) where failed intubation attempts from doctors were a factor in a child’s death or disability.

“Finally, post-natally, intubation should not have been attempted by the Countess of Chester neonatal staff given the risks of being unable to ventilate the baby properly, who was in any event stable on CPAP such that intubation and ventilation were not urgently indicated. This further period of marked metabolic acidosis materially contributed to his brain damage.”

www.fieldfisher.com/en/injury-claims/case-studies/8m-settlement-in-medical-negligence-claim

OP posts:
BifurBofurBombur · 15/07/2024 12:20

lawnseed · 15/07/2024 12:13

Apparently she's on several different types of psychoactive medications, including an antidepressant, which could account for her flat affect. She was also moved a few days prior to the trial starting which caused her a lot of mental health difficulties and they had to delay the start of the trial by a week.

If only she had all this medication and therapy before she started hurting babies.

Whatisthereason · 15/07/2024 12:22

I really hope this is all looked at again as something is very wrong with the conviction. If I had to be put on the spot and say either way what I thought I would say I don’t think she is guilty .

Kittybythelighthouse · 15/07/2024 12:27

ThePure · 14/07/2024 21:08

  • lack of direct evidence
  • misuse of statistics
  • no red flags in background (vs Shipman's prior drug addiction)
  • colleagues think they are weird and start a witch hunt (vs actually no/one suspected Shipman)

Shipman also inserted himself into forged wills.

OP posts:
lawnseed · 15/07/2024 12:29

Reallybadidea · 15/07/2024 12:00

As I said up thread, what about the 8 deaths on the unit that LL wasn't charged with? Given how few babies died in the years before a cluster of 8 (apparently non-suspicious) deaths is in itself alarming.

I've read the child E transcripts, LL's testimony and the cross examination. https://www.reddit.com/r/lucyletby/wiki/index/#wiki_defence

I don't agree with @Ratsoffasinkingsauage summary or interpretation of the transcripts being clear evidence of her guilt. As a HCP I imagined giving evidence about critical situations I was involved with a year or more ago. Honestly, the idea terrifies me because I can say for sure that I would not be able to recall the level of detail that was expected of her.

I find it interesting that it in the main it seems those of us with healthcare backgrounds are sceptical about the evidence and safety of the conviction, whereas those without are more confident that she is guilty.

I agree. The text exchanges are exactly the types of exchanges I used to have with my colleagues when we'd had an unexpected death or the unit was struggling. I can totally relate to those.

I don't think people realise how difficult it can be working with some doctors (especially the egotists) as well, due to different perspectives they have on care and treatment. Add to this a difficult relationship between the doctors and nursing staff and it's a recipe for disaster. You have to listen to each other and have mutual respect, which wasn't the case on this unit. The nurses reported having difficulties getting the doctors to respond to concerns and of even being able to reach them when they needed to. I agree that the lack of active treatment regarding the GI bleed was baffling. Dysfunctional hospital units are a big hazard for nurses. I spent a lot of time arse covering myself.

lawnseed · 15/07/2024 12:35

BifurBofurBombur · 15/07/2024 12:20

If only she had all this medication and therapy before she started hurting babies.

If only the NHS was a safe place to work then staff wouldn't fall sick with stress, depression and ultimately have to leave. The working environment in the unit was blatantly problematic. I wonder how the midwives on the high stillbirth rate (one of the highest in the country) maternity unit are faring.

MistressoftheDarkSide · 15/07/2024 12:36

Reallybadidea · 15/07/2024 12:00

As I said up thread, what about the 8 deaths on the unit that LL wasn't charged with? Given how few babies died in the years before a cluster of 8 (apparently non-suspicious) deaths is in itself alarming.

I've read the child E transcripts, LL's testimony and the cross examination. https://www.reddit.com/r/lucyletby/wiki/index/#wiki_defence

I don't agree with @Ratsoffasinkingsauage summary or interpretation of the transcripts being clear evidence of her guilt. As a HCP I imagined giving evidence about critical situations I was involved with a year or more ago. Honestly, the idea terrifies me because I can say for sure that I would not be able to recall the level of detail that was expected of her.

I find it interesting that it in the main it seems those of us with healthcare backgrounds are sceptical about the evidence and safety of the conviction, whereas those without are more confident that she is guilty.

I am also interested in the fact that health care professionals are dubious. I mean you could look at it several ways - the profession being called into disrepute might make some defensive as a whole, but the experience of HCPs should not be discounted as they are in a position to identify with the environment and experience described. We are told all the time that the NHS is on its knees and it was long before Covid became the final nail in the coffin. It's a hard, stressful job where genuine caring is done in the context of management and a series of scandals has proven that doing the former efficiently is hampered by management decisions quite often. A friend working in a hospital frequently bemoans the fact that hospital managers don't always have any sort of health care background but are number crunchers which of course is likely to lead to conflict between clinicians and accountants in essence.

The other cohort who feel uneasy, such as myself, have had a taste of the system. We are often lay people without professional expertise but we have had a glimpse of it as a "service user" that yes, makes us feel uneasy. Part of a defense solicitors job is to advise a client how best to present themselves in court. Or not to present themselves at all if they are perceived to be volatile. Being volatile is not an unnatural response, but losing your shit in the face of cross examination designed to trip you up and make you look bad can overshadow every other aspect of a trial or hearing.

Lucy Letby was described as arrogant when she didn't accept what she was being accused of. So basically any challenge a defendant makes to the experts or prosecutor is arrogant. They know the truth and she has no right to question it or refute it? Because of course she's lying to save her skin.

It really is the ultimate no win situation.

Even if she had been found not guilty, plenty would maintain her guilt because they want an answer in this case. And the thought that systemic failure and sub-optimal care being responsible is far scarier I think.

DysonSphere · 15/07/2024 12:42

Reallybadidea · 15/07/2024 12:00

As I said up thread, what about the 8 deaths on the unit that LL wasn't charged with? Given how few babies died in the years before a cluster of 8 (apparently non-suspicious) deaths is in itself alarming.

I've read the child E transcripts, LL's testimony and the cross examination. https://www.reddit.com/r/lucyletby/wiki/index/#wiki_defence

I don't agree with @Ratsoffasinkingsauage summary or interpretation of the transcripts being clear evidence of her guilt. As a HCP I imagined giving evidence about critical situations I was involved with a year or more ago. Honestly, the idea terrifies me because I can say for sure that I would not be able to recall the level of detail that was expected of her.

I find it interesting that it in the main it seems those of us with healthcare backgrounds are sceptical about the evidence and safety of the conviction, whereas those without are more confident that she is guilty.

I notice the non medical and less mathematical people (of which categories I fall into so I am not looking down on that) are also most likely to hang onto soft, less cognitively challenging evidence: the note, eye witness memory (of which much literature has been written as to it's fallibility and selectivity) handover notes being taken home, bland bedroom, close relationship with parents, parents behaviour, shift rota etc etc. The sort of stuff that easily fills press pages and blogs.

That has been very noticeable on the 30 pages of thread.

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