Birth rate hits record low - 1.49 children per woman

[MidnightPatrol]

The ONS has released its latest data on the UK birthrate.

The number of children per women has dropped from 1.55 in 2022 to 1.49 in 2022 - the lowest on record.

This is the lowest number of births in the UK since 2002 - when the population was 10 million people smaller.

Do we think this problem will inevitably worsen? Are there particular reasons people are having less children (unique to the UK vs the rest of the world?).

Should we be taking steps to increase it / stop it reducing further?

What happens though in 18 or so years when these dc enter the workforce and find AI has replaced many jobs?

Do you have children? I do, and I can’t say that all they did was break me ‘financially, physically and emotionally’, far from it.
I do agree with your last sentence though.

I see it as good news as the world is already overpopulated.

Agree.

Not true in my case 🤷‍♀️
And I know several other families who’d probably also disagree with PP.

This, or they’re just not thinking it through.
Even people who say they won’t need anyone to pay their pension because they have a private one will need others to provide services and possibly do care work for them.

I agree too. I disagree with all of @Hereyoume 's post, apart from the expense bit of it. And Im not 'financially broken'. I just have far less money than I would have if I didn't have to pay for kids stuff. But I choose to pay for their activities.

Exactly. the vast majority of NHS expense comes in the last 5-10 years of life. Who is paying for medical staff, facilities, transport etc for these services? Working people. People provided by their peers, who had children.

The world is overpopulated because we are all living longer ( a good thing) and because of medical advances. The global birthrate has been stable since the 1970's and is now dropping, rapidly in some places. It is predicted that the global population will peak at between 9 and 10 billion, then drop. We cant do anything about the rise to 9-10 billion because it is made up of people already living.

Maybe people are realising you can do more with and for two children rather than limit your resources with more. The only problem I see ( I’ll probably get vilified for this as usual) is that visitors from other countries have 4-8 children so we could end up being extinct.

I agree with you. I might be selfish too, but I don’t really want my generation ‘to be hit’ for the greater good and a brighter future.
There should be a healthy middle ground between population growth and decline.

That’s interesting- when was the study done?

@inamarina resources will still decrease so keeping things at the numbers we have now will have an impact

Also what do you think the workforce will be like in 18 to 20 years?

Same need for jobs or different due to advances in AI?

Fully agree with you. I also think some people aren’t thinking it through properly.
What will it really look like if there are even fewer people working in care homes? Or providing other services?
Regarding immigration: nothing wrong with it, as long as some sort of social cohesion can be maintained. That’s already a bit of an issue in some areas, certainly where I live (and I say that as an immigrant myself).

For most parents who feel it is important to provide a good standard of living for their children, and be able to support them as they grow and potentially through university, 1-2 children is all they can afford. Once you're earning over £50k, you get pretty much any kind of support stripped back to nothing, and £50k really isn't a huge salary these days. Things need adjusting, so hard working families can earn decent money and support a family with 2-3 kids with ease. At the moment, a family with two professional parents, working full time, earning good wages, are struggling to pay rent/mortgages and bills, which just isn't right. No one in their right mind wants to bring additional children into a financially unpredictable situation. I know couples who both earn really well, who don't have spare cash for holidays, or home improvements, worrying about money day to day, of course they aren't going to have another child, as that will only make things financially harder.

I know several people with 0 or just one child. It’s not that they can’t afford it. These people are extremely well off. The ones with 0 kids have decent size homes (4-5 bedroom) but they like the flexibility of holidays whenever they want. They’re never home or when they are they’re having people over to stay. They have chosen a lifestyle that doesn’t involves children. As people with decent disposable income, the ease of travel these days to fit in around work that is also flexible means kids would spoil it.

For some, the just didn’t get together with their respective other halves until they’re were much older, often other half already has children from previous marriage, grown up as well, so not wanting to start a whole second life with kids.

For others they’ve had had one and realised parenting is not for them. In the old days there was an expectation that women popped out babies and everyone just got on with it. Kids had more respect for their elders. It took a village to raise kids and there would be people on the street/estate all helping out with their back door always open for kids just popping in and out. Nowadays parenting is hard work. Families are spread out over cities and even countries, people don’t know their neighbours. Careers mean women leave it til later and then realise they are exhausted when they’ve had one that they don’t want anymore. Or the complexities of parenting in a modern world just kick in. Those who were never really maternal feel like they have permission not to not take on the role of parent. There’s no expectations. Older starting age also means that some women can’t have additional kids.

Also, contraception availability is easier, less embarrassing (ordering off the internet if you don’t want to get your free condoms from the clinic). The kidding after pill so those one night stands don’t get you that baby you never wanted, also the ability to terminate unwanted pregnancies is easier to come by.

But in general society has changed. The role of the woman has changed. The expectation of getting married and then having kids straight if away has changed.

There are quite a few kids from what looks like quite a conservative Eastern European community at my kids’ secondary school.
Several girls left school before doing their GCSEs.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they followed their mother’s footsteps rather than those of their Western peers when it comes to family planning.

I also think that western countries raising pension age is false economy. By the time people finally retired they are exhausted whereas previously they would have been more willing and able to help out in unpaid roles like childcare and local volunteering and also probably be in better health longer in life.

I think it’s a good point.
I also think that raising the pension ago would need to come with a change of employer’s attitude towards ‘older’ workers.
If someone is seen as ‘too old’ to be considered for a new job because they’re 50+, how is it going to work unless people stay in the same job they found in their forties at the latest?

Imagine it’s in 20 years time in 2044. All the little ones are now young adults studying, joining the workforce, becoming parents, etc. This generation, unlike any before, has grown up with AI, have used devices like smartphones and iPads for both studying and recreation, use social media to socialise with friends more than ever, and so on. It’s a digital age gone mad, most likely. Now add into the mix the possibility of most being from one-child families where rather than play with their sibling(s) at home, they play by themselves, more than likely with a device. With time they might find they prefer playing with a device to other children, or feel more comfortable interacting with others via a device rather than face-to-face. What are those people like? And what sort of society do their attitudes, habits and issues create?

That’s what I mean.

That’s such an important point.
I’ve seen arguments saying that technology will be the solution to issues brought about by an aging population, but how exactly if there will be fewer and fewer (new) engineers? Or will we just completely rely on AI?

You can’t only look at birth rate though, you also need to consider child mortality which is low in most first world countries

Research shows that only children have the same social skills as children from larger families. I have conducted extensive research on this topic.
I don't think you can make assumptions about only children versus children with siblings.

Can we not turn this into a one-child family bashing thread, please? Only children are no more antisocial than anyone else.

Ok, well that’s reassuring. I do still wonder if your research will be the same as children get exposed to greater and greater levels of digital content, though. And social skills are just one aspect - what about attention spans, addictive tendencies and the increased risk of mental health disorders? Might these be worse for only children who are more likely to be using devices to play with at home?

I'd argue that a) very few outliers innovate anyway and b) more young people can be "cultivated" into design/innovation work rather than grunt work by a smaller populace to educate, IMO.

That's a nice and easy scenario to conjure up on the internet of course. It doesn't bear any responsibility for the immense effort it would take to transition out society from its current form into one where technology takes the grunt work out, and people can live healthier lives, supporting their healthier relatives socially etc etc

I mean, what political party is willing to build a plan to transition to a smaller social model, supporting employment and education transition, redesigning supply chains etc - and then be mad enough to try and get the public to VOTE for it!?