Which issues are the ones likely to swing a general election result ?

[Georgeduhamel]

Seems to be a big difference in real life outside MN and MN.
Most people I know are frustrated by the state of public services and the lack of money despite sky high taxes. Local schools are falling apart, NHS non functioning despite best efforts of the staff and our town centre is now reminiscent of an East European backwater in the 1970s with barely any shops and homeless folk on every corner. We also have a particularly inept Tory MP so I anticipate people will want to get rid of him.
Which things will affect your vote ? What’s most important ? In some respects I guess it depends on your personal situation and where you live. Leafy affluent home in Surrey life might not have changed, council estate in Rochdale you might be more eager to get rid of the current lot in government.
On MN, maybe understandably, gender ideology and labour’s uncertain stance seems to be a hot topic but does that trump the cost of living crisis or the lack of GP appointments or 24 hour delays in A/E ?
Fwiw I’m in agreement with most of the GC arguments but that won’t influence my vote for Labour.

I was talking about this with a group of friends yesterday.
No1. Cost of living. Tories were seen by some to protect the economy but they have utterly trashed it except for the rich.
No2. Housing or lack of. We all have teens that will be living with us for years thanks to no investment in social housing and Tories insisting that houses are not homes but investments.
No3. The environment. It's horrific what is going to happen and the impact it will have predominantly on the poorest people in the planet. This internal lead to mass migration, more civil unrest and war.
No4 women's rights (Safe spaces, rape stats, rise of misogyny, porn/violent sex, wage gap, poor birth outcomes, maternity/nursery costs
No 5. Deliberate destruction of the NHS and social care predominantly to ensure that the Tories and their friends make money in the private health care sector.

Sadly I don't think labour is going to address most of these issues but they're going to be a fuck a lot better than what we've got

And I agree with what @givenup123 said as well. I’d vote for anyone who promised to do just ONE of those things

This is really interesting on the subject of dentistry:

Nothing is going to affect my vote this time round.

I want what we are not going to get. I want integrity in politics. I want politicians to put the national interest above self-interest. I want honour, integrity and accountability. These three things I want at the very least. I want our elected government to listen and act accordingly. I want brave politicians who understand the state of the nation and who can lead. I want statesmen and stateswomen. I want leadership who can engage well with the majority of the population to take this country through a 15-20 year plan of renewal. I want a party who can win the majority of the country over, even if not natural voters to the label of however comes to power. Only then will we create the right environment to getting more efficient public services while paying lower taxes.

Now, the icing on the cake. I want a public enquiry into why everyone, whether rich or poor, is paying more tax now than ever before yet suffering from a structural decline in investment and public service. It is a national scandal and I want heads to roll and exotic yachts and island getaways sold and the proceeds paid back into the Treasury. Where has all the money gone? It is a national scandal.

As I said, nothing will affect my vote. I know what I want, but no party has convinced me they will get anywhere close. All parties are either tainted or have no plan.

Above all none have a single statesman or stateswoman.

I don’t want another Tory government but I can’t vote labour and risk VAT on school fees. My SN child isn’t SN enough for the state system to support and private is our only option, the state system won’t be “fixed” in time and I don’t want my child to fail.

The Conservatives have the rest of the year in Government if they choose it.

Obviously people's experiences will inform their vote.

But reading manifestos should feature somewhere!

1. The NHS. Please set up a working party to have the hard conversations about reform. We deserve it.
2. The economy - how to stimulate growth and get the country moving again
3. Immigration. What’s the plan? We can’t manage 750,000 extra people per year with our crumbling public services and lack of houses
4. A fairer taxation system. It’s madness that the personal allowance has been frozen for years as it directly affects the lowest paid. There’s a lot of whining on MN about VAT on school fees but I think (hope) it KS signalling a look at a fairer tax system that benefits the lower paid

Those are the areas I want Labour to address. I want fairness and a long term plan. We’re grown ups and politicians need to be honest about the issues and use all those bloody civil servants to find solutions. Make the hard decisions.

I’m an OAP and always vote (although have never voted Tory). Things have gone so bad recently and I want to see a re-set. GC issues are not a dealbreaker for me, nor triple lock - I want a better vision for our society.

I think one of the biggest questions is how well Reform will do. Since their vote seems to be largely made of up of disgruntled Tory 'Loony' Rightwingers, the Tories may well have have a double whammy of losing both the moderate end of their voters back to Labour and the loons to Reform.

If Labour win the next election I think it will be more a case of the Tories losing (deservedly) rather than Labour 'winning'.

Not from my point of view but I think most will vote based on:

Immigration/small boats
Education post COVID
Housing
Cost of living
Strikes
NHS
War so Ukraine, Israel, etc

I think Reform will split the vote. Not enough to get anywhere more than a few seats in parliament. But they do worry me as they're bloody right wing racist thugs.

I don't like Kier. I think he is poundshop Blair. He will make many promises he won't keep.

The Tories are responsible for the mess we are in, and should end up behind Lib Dems.

I will be voting tactically.
Whoever wins has an uphill struggle. There is no money in the country because they've allowed their mates to asset strip it. People like Michele Mone who has bought a yacht off of money stolen from tax payers.

The NHS is beyond help, schools are a mess, there's no housing that people can afford and the rich have, just as Corbyn predicted, got richer and richer. Look at British Gas this week and the sickening profit they made in a year whist lying about wholesale prices.

Personally I will most likely vote Labour to stop the Conservatives getting in (or a hung parliament situation).
My main concerns are nhs, education, economy, benefits system (including the assessment process for disability), housingfor the young.
I am however not happy with the flip flopping (although some of this will be due to changing circumstances out of their control they should not promise things that may not be procedable).
I'm also not happy with Labour attitude to gender/sex.
I think it's choosing what I am happy to accept in order to not get what I don't want. Although if my Labour candidate tuns up at my door I will be telling them why I'm reluctantly voting for them.

I agree on some of this but on this one

it KS signalling a look at a fairer tax system that benefits the lower paid

He’s signaling nothing bar a handy prop for no policies

And you can see it in Reeves no bonus cap because apart from a handy gimmick it’ll be the same set up. They won’t change this stuff but it’s precisely so people think there’s more to come. There isn’t.

Between now and election I'm expecting the Conservatives to announce tax cuts paid for out of further cuts to public services in 2025 (hide the cuts til after the election).
So heaven knows what the next government will inherit.

For me it’s a combination of wanting proper investment in public services -and not wanting a bunch of mostly rich and almost universally inept tories running the country.
I’m not convinced Labour will deliver the former- without proper economic growth it’s hard to see how.
but I think they do have a good idea of how most of us live.

The tories total lack of understanding of the future impact of the climate crisis depresses me further. Labour are a lot better, though the dropping of the £28bn pledge is regrettable- rather than bang on about the figure they should have banged on about the benefits to us all.

But I won’t be voting Labour as it’s a Tory vs lib Dem race round here. Lib Dem it is (especially as I know the candidate and she’s a good egg that will stand up for the local community)

ps the whole small boats thing/rwanda is a total non-issue when thinking of future climate catastrophes which will bring millions and millions more. I’d really like to see a government actually engaging with European and other countries to decide how these refugees are best looked after.

rather than spending billions on the Rwanda plan which even if it ever happens will affect a few hundred at the most.

Indeed. It’s very difficult for them to commit to anything when they literally don’t know how much money will be in the bank if/when they win. I think they could be making some clearer noises by this point though.

What ever the media decides should be the main issues.

Scottish seats wont make the blindest bit of difference. They haven't decided the outcome of a UK GE in eons.

The polls are universally predicting a Labour landslide, and a likely majority of 200+. There's no real reason to think they are all wildly inaccurate, so barring some sort of calamitous collapse between now and the GE, it looks likely the norm of Scottish seats being immaterial to the outcome will be continued.

The polls which are usually the better at modelling Scots outcomes are not exactly predicting an SNP 'collapse' in any case. The last Electoral Calculus poll suggests SNP on course to retain 40, with the Tories completely wiped out, but it's immaterial because Labour won't require Scots seats in any case.

I’d really like to see a government actually engaging with European and other countries to decide how these refugees are best looked after.

By the transfer of enormous quantities of technology, know-how and infrastructure funding overseas. This will result in richer nations becoming relatively poorer, but this is a necessity. The effects of climate change can be manageable at a local level, but only with the transfer of technological wealth where it is needed.

I think it's fundamentally down to whether people feel better off or worse off, in terms of quality of life, since the current government got elected.

If you feel better off you'll want to keep them in, if you feel worse off you'll want to turf them out. As the famous phrase goes, "It's the economy, stupid".

I think hope for a better future factors in too, and what one's opinion is on who is going to improve things, or at least not make them worse.

Based on the above, the Tories have blown it big time. I do despair at Labour's apparent lack of ambition though. I am hoping they are keeping their powder dry so as not to scare the horses, then will actually be quite radical once they get in. We need serious root and branch economic reform, not just tinkering around the edges.

• Public services need fixed and that means paying public servants fairly to retain them. I'd happily pay more tax to do that, however I think more needs to be done to get fair tax from people outside PAYE. It's ridiculous that Sunak pays 25% tax while someone earning 55k will pay 50% (tax and NI) for example.
• violence against women and girls. Treat repeat offenders as serious criminals, review rape laws so it's actually possible to convict rapists, get better protection for women at risk from a violent ex
• environment and public transport all need fixing and I'd like to see a proposal for travel outside London Inc. sorting out the HS2 car crash so a useful service comes out of it
• education- let teachers actually practise teaching and fund schools properly
• foreign affairs - sort out a better trading relationship with the EU, push for an Israel Gaza ceasefire.

Things I'd do to raise money:

• get rid of third sector involvement in public sector, more centralisation to benefit from economies of scale
• stop fannying around spending money on Rwanda/Bibby Stockholm and other questionable things that are clearly going to lead to legal challenges and £££ on lawyers
• look at addressing tax loopholes being used by super rich.
• make pensioners pay a more reasonable income tax on private pensions. A lot of them don't have mortgages and have very high disposable income, they should be contributing to get us out of this hole
• invest in growth eg the tax free capitalisation thing was a really good idea in the last election

I'm torn, as our current Tory MP has done a decent job, but he is moving constituency this GE due to the boundary changes. We've been historically Tory, with 20 years of Lib Dems up to 2015. The local council are Lib Dem and they are awful, and would use a GE win as some sort of approval of the council's actions. Labour are nowhere near.

I think we (the country) need a change, but not sure any party can give us what we need.

Aren't Labour looking at or even indicating that they will apply the Nom Dom Tax which allows holders not to pay tax in the UK on foreign income; Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates would raise £3bn, which would fund a recruitment drive in the NHS. This is really popular with almost 50% of voters.

Climate change.

None of the rest matters if the world becomes unliveable...

Followed by NHS

Then the many other important things, taxes, women's rights, family support, childcare etc

soupfiend · Today 11:12

In terms of the general population, the perception of immigration being to blame for all our ills will probably get the Tories back in”

In RL, immigration is way down the list for most.

£3bn is just over a single day of total tax revenue. Just to put things into context.