General Election in May rumour

[Viviennemary]

I heard this would be a possibility. Then saw an article today right down at the bottom of the topics on the DM website. I don't usually even scroll that far down. Can't see it myself as Tories not very popular. I will be voting Labour. Not that keen on them but certainly won't be voting Tory. Don't much like Greens or Lib Dems.

I'd be surprised. I think they'll promise the earth on the next budget but also want to have time before November to show what a (positive) impact the budget has had. Also, with childcare hours changing soon, they'll want this to be fresh in the electorates mind. I think a May election is unlikely.

Sunak said the 2nd half of 2024; they'll want to avoid November as it's the US elections so my guess is September.

Did you see my first post on this thread?

The main thrust of it, where it says that say that the Tories won't win and that there is no political home for compassionate/intelligent people who lean to the right (because they don't and cannot support any party, which of course includes the Tories)

Lean to the right in what way though? That could mean anything.

I would be surprised as they are working on the things are getting better let’s stick to the plan line

hopefully over the next six months things will improve with interest rates dropping and the impact from this

the Conservatives know they are highly unlikely to win and it’s now about how many seats they shall lose, they are looking to the next election as this next term in government isn’t going to be a rerun of Labour’s in the late 90’s there is too many things to fix

No, I think they want time to plant little political bombs that it will be difficult foe the next administration to deal with.

They've already had the gift of RAAC (expect to see more sad-face stories about time it's taking) and they'll also be seeding more expensive things - Labour just can't disavow the free childcare pledges in their entirety, but will be in a major mess trying to sort it out (and the extent of difficulties with it won't emerge overnight, and will go quiet over the summer, so will land on next administration not this one). There will be others. I expect most spending announcements will have small start and then major spending ramped up over next 2-3 years, also to force Labour to cut welfare.

Armed Forces difficulties are going to complicate things. I think the outgoing CDS said what he did as a pre-emptive strike against concerns there could be further cuts to the defence budget (usually politically easy to achieve)

And then sorting out the impact of long covid on productivity and numbers out of the workforce could turn in to a major issue. At the moment, we don't know how great an impact this might have, and whether the increase of those on sickness related benefits (or reduced hours, or early retirement, or other economic inactivity because of illness/reduced capacity) is related to generally poorer health (for which long covid id definitely a factor) or if it's just malingering as the Tories portray it

Pension credit is different, there's a separate housing element as well.

If Labour get in , they don't really have to achieve much , because every single thing they don't do ,ie. Improving NHS
Improving schools
Improving public services, etc.etc. ,
they will spend the next however many years saying they inherited the problems from the Tories and it'll take years to sort out.
No party is any better than the other.
We'll all still be waiting for months on an appointment or scan or consultation.
And as for improvements in Dentist availability
, that's never going to improve.
But in the next years, when nothing improves , it will all be the Tories fault
Ps. I don't even like the Tories but that's how it works !! Always blame someone else for the lack of performance.

Sadly agree to this. It's an utter shambles at the moment. 🌹

Tories will cling to power as long, late as possible, unless they are afraid their voters won't get out to polls in very cold weather.

I'd be very surprised, even if the March budget is a 'giveaway' one.

Even if a Labour or Labour led government was little better than the current one, if you vote Tory you are rewarding failure and turning a blind eye to corruption.

Rishi will call the election when he has all his ducks in a row. That is all the companies that he has stakes in have got as much as possible from the UK taxpayer, and he has a snug little post in the US to scurry away to. All else is froth really. That's why he couldn't give two shits how the UK is going. Why would he ?

They are going to lose and they know it, so I think they are going to squeeze every last drop out of this.

Do people like naptrappedmummy actually know how much of a 'luxury' life people on UC are 'choosing' ?

A single person who is capable of work but has none gets the princely some of £368 a month. That's £84.00 a week.
S/he can of course claim rent help. But it's a very rare rental that is covered by the housing allowance. So part of you enormous wealth will need to cover the shortfall. In my area that is a one bed housing allowance of £695 per month and the very cheapest one bed is £850... so that takes the money you have to live on, feed yourself, heat your home and pay your utilities down to £49 per week.

Don't forget that with all this money, you are also expected to look for work . Internet, interviews etc.

Do you honestly think that ANY able bodied , mentally stable human being would 'choose' this . ? Yes there are people who scam these benefits but they are in the vast minority. I know this after a lifetime in DWP as an adviser, work coach, DEA and FI.

To me - the mark of a civilised nation is how it treats the most vulnerable in society.

Be forever grateful that you don't need benefits. ! being 'jealous' of those who do is repulsive.

I live in a swing constituency. The current MP (Labour) is assiduous and very committed to public service. Visible locally. Calls out the Conservative Party on corruption, for example that grifter Mone and her ilk. Labour’s faults are clear, particularly on women’s issues, but voting for this person will be easy for me - I have no qualms!

I think that Rishi Sunak will leave the election until as late as possible so that he can get as many - Mumsnet cliche alert - ducks in a row for his greedy chums before he goes. However, the posters who talked about winter and older voters may have a point. So early October? That’s what I’d do in his shoes I suppose. But for me, the earlier the better!

It depends what hunt can pull out the bag in the next budget.

I think 16 grand is far too low for a safety net when people then can't get benefits. Let people have more of a safety net and encourage them to save, it's been 16 for ages.

Raise threshold for working before having to pay tax and ni again to massively help those on low paid jobs.

I don't want to hear about NHS investment or schools without speficically hearing where that money will go.

@Zippitydoodaa sadly I agree. Each area needs a ring fence of experts who also trawl the world for better systems and ways of doing things.

I think instantly jumping to anger and outrage whenever somebody criticises benefits, or points out that not everybody who claims is incapable of work, is nonsensical.

We spend an enormous and unsustainable amount on out of work benefits. A quarter of working age people don’t work. The reasons are irrelevant the fact is they’re not working while using the public services around them. A lot of benefits aren’t even means tested. We can’t afford it, and this is the main reason the country has little money for improving public services.

EDUCATIONCPD - But isn't that the whole point of savings, to use them to live off when you fall on hard times? If you think £16,000 is too low what would be your cut off?

I think that Rishi Sunak will leave the election until as late as possible so that he can get as many - Mumsnet cliche alert - ducks in a row for his greedy chums before he goes

You'd be wrong, Rishi doesn't give two shits about his "mates". Rishi cares about Rishi. So when things are ready for Rishi, we get an election. And if the other grifters in the Tory party aren't ready ... well fuck 'em.

I have little sympathy with this argument. It’s not difficult to apply for a postal vote. You can even, when applying, choose to apply for postal votes for all elections for the next 3 years from when you apply. If there’s a possibility you may be away from where you’re registered to vote, why take the risk? Apply for a postal vote. You can do it today.

I had to apply when I was working away during 2022 and it was a simple process.
It relies on people making the effort and there’s the nub. Can people actually be bothered to make the effort?

It would also make sense for them to call an election during party conference (always very early October) for mid November.

I'm chomping at the bit for it! DH's job is directly linked to the election and he will be made redundant immediately. He's been Jim workplace for a long time and will be due a lovely payout!

I'm not sure they'll win by a mile, due to the boundary changes for constituencies. They need a record breaking swing to win (a bigger swing than Blair achieved in '97). So it may be closer than you think.

I think we're fucked whoever wins though.

Right-leaning voters with any form of intelligence or compassion

Isn't that any oxymoron ?

Students can register at home and uni. It's only if they don't bother finding this out that they will make it awkward for themselves.