This is my prediction what will happen.
20% comes in immediately . Schools won’t pass on the full 20%. They will cut some spending, they will postpone infrastructure projects and cut the amount of money in the bursary pot. They will support those who might not be able to afford the fees anymore by using the remaining bursary pot. They will heavily reduce the bursary available for new pupils. There will be a tiny increase in state school pupils which will somehow be absorbed
1-2 years in Keir S will proclaim - look how successful our policy is! We are raking it in. That max exodus of private school pupils hasn’t happened. we were right. I’m doing my bit to combat social inequality. Evil tories etc etc etc
the teachers at state schools start to ask for more money. They say you are bringing in this extra money to invest in schools. We are underpaid (which i whole heartedly agree they are!!!) so pay us more. The government brings in a few more teachers so they can say look at these extra teachers we have recruited and look at the buildings we have helped to improve. A few chosen sound bites about exam results and grandstanding about amazing they are.
But parents who would have otherwise sent their children private at 5 or 11 or 13 start to go, ‘i could sort of get my head around £20k but now we are looking at £25k’, eeeek. Let’s use the money to move close to an amazing school (thus putting up house prices around the best schools) and then spend the remaining on tutoring our kids.
the etons, winchesters, harrows will take the super rich and foreign kids so they won’t even notice the increase. The middle pack of schools (e.g. Times top 50 schools) will still get filled as there are enough wealthy enough parents who can and will pay. It is the smaller private and prep schools where parents start to not see the value add that will suffer as they don’t get filled.
councils will suddenly find themselves with bulge classes. No way enough places to go around. There will be appeals bogging down the system. Some new places will be created but kids will end up having to travel miles and miles to get to school. Council will have to pay for the transport. Local/central government will have to start funding the setting up of new schools which is expensive.
meanwhile other professions such as doctors, nurses etc demand better pay like the teachers are demanding. (Which I agree they deserve!!!). This eats away at those ever decreasing VAT receipts as the smaller private schools shut and pupil numbers diminish. The state also starts to pick up the tab for the extra pupils they previously were not paying for. Government starts getting bogged down with competing interests for treasury money - eg they want to put more money In The NHS - well we have a handy extra pile of cash here. People complain about the missing investment (remember £350m battle bus claim that never materialised?!) but the government just blame the Tories.
the wealthier state school kids get loads of extra tutoring (as many already do!) and they begin to outstrip their less privileged school mates and therefore have a greater chance of taking those prized top uni places. They also get nice lump sums from parents to put deposits on property.
Wealth inequality gets larger in the long term. you won’t see the effects with the first years but you will after 5-10 years.
genuinely happy to hear the counter argument.