What's after happening in Russia overnight?

[Moonandstarzz]

In simple terms please!

Well, Putin's is striking back (verbally, at least for now) it's "a knife in our back" and has accused the Wagner boss of treason and armed muting.

Fight to the death?

People are desperate to see Putin go, but Prigozhin isn't a fool may win. And that is the "even worse than Putin" scenario for Russia, and possibly for the West longer term. Though it I expect it will mean relief for Ukraine, given Prigozhin's statement about being duped to go to fight there, hint of withdrawal and therefore initial approval.

Vladimir Osechkin: Russia's entire 22nd Special Forces Brigade has switched to Prigozhin's side as well as some FSB border guards. (via Twitter)

eg is it this war is too slow, shouldn’t be happening, other or just a power grab at a supposed opportune time?

My guess is power grab, but something that has been growing for a long time (you don't march on Moscow on a whim) and what Wagner group is seeing in Ukraine will have been part of the formative chains of thought.

But what would Russia be like, under the rule of an extremely brutal PMC (including political opportunists who link with them for survival - pretty literally - and become puppets)

@meditrina

People are desperate to see Putin go, but Prigozhin isn't a fool may win. And that is the "even worse than Putin" scenario for Russia, and possibly for the West longer term. Though it I expect it will mean relief for Ukraine, given Prigozhin's statement about being duped to go to fight there, hint of withdrawal and therefore initial approval.

It really isn't good for Ukraine. (Neither option would be.) Prigozhin made a statement earlier implying he would still carry on with the war against Ukraine with any Russian forces that would join him - just not the Commanders in Charge (Putin, Shoigu, and another General.) Prigozhin is terrifying. I wouldn't want him and his mercenaries taking charge of my city. (Remember the war crimes you might have heard about in Ukraine? That was Wagner, primarily.)

Did I read they have 50,000 in their team? . But that’s a lot of chaos as how loyal would they be to the Wagner outfit.

Does Russia have an infinite supply of criminals because it's such a corrupt system? I read so much about their falling apart system because of the rampant pilfering (of everything).

I don't think control of nuclear weapons is that simple.

Where have you been?

It really is, if they take over the government.

What is likely to be key here is which way the GRU goes. Also the FSB.

I'm assuming the Wagner group has been quietly building alliances with the military throughout the time they have been alongside in the Ukraine campaign, and that with their cover allies going public, others will just join them as they start to look like winners.

And of course I'm wondering what this means for Africa in the new (China/Russia) "Great Game"

I would be amazed and upset if taking over a government was just like moving into a house and you have all the manuals you need.

However I admit, when you build a totalitarian regime like Putin, it makes it much much easier to take over.

Meanwhile, China smiles on, inscrutably.

I wonder if it's a bluff so Putin can pull back from Ukraine, and save face. More urgent problems on home soil.

Potential civil war in Russia. Any alternative to Putin may not be any better from a Western perspective and could mean a more volatile situation.

What's after?

I haven't a clue either @Moonandstarzz just watching this now to try and catch up, I assumed I knew what was going on

Depends on the GRU really. If the Russian military go with the Wagner-led coup (and there are reports of some units doing so, but not key ones yet) then yes, they have everything they need

Prigozhin's latest statement on Ukraine might change that, if he sees Russia itself as the bigger prize.

But yes, I agree that it's a terrifying prospect

Is the Wagner group as expansionist as Putin?

If they say too many are dying but they still want to crush Ukraine as in pp then it feels very volatile

If it’s more just control of Russia then a different situation possibly

Difficult to say from a European perspective. But their activities in Africa are "predatory" according to US analysis

Russia’s Wagner Group in Africa: Issues for Congress

So don't rule it out

The second in command of the Wagner group is the scariest person.. he is a true Nazi who has SS tattoos apparently and admires how the SS worked.

Dmitry Utkin, whose call sign is 'Wagner' allegedly founded the Wagner group although he's second in command to Prigozhin, who funds the group.

He's the military side, Prigozhin is the business/oligarch/connections side of it.

(I've just looked him up - special forces and GRU background , and with Wagner it adds up to about 20 years of military experience)

What is he playing at? Him walking away seems a bit weird?

I thought so too???

I wonder which “accident” will befall Prigozhin?

Falling out of a window I imagine.