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Prices won't be going back down again...will they?

102 replies

blahblah56 · 25/02/2023 19:06

Seems to be a lot of "grin and bear it" or "things will get better" posts around but I'm wondering if this is it now?

Our shopping has jump up so much, a lot more than the 12% or so they say shopping has gone up. I'm not going to go into Tesco one day and be surprised that my shopping is £50 cheaper am I?

Likewise my electric has gone up from £100 in a month in 2021 to £330 a month in Feb 2023. That's not ever going to go back to the lower price.

So is this it now? Is life going to be pretty shit in the long run with little chance for most people to enjoy themselves?

OP posts:
safeplanet · 26/02/2023 12:30

But house prices will fall because huge chunks of the middle classes never bothered to check if they could afford their mortgages at 12% let along 15%.

When do you think mortgages rates will hit 15%. I cannot see it happening

WillowBeeT · 26/02/2023 12:36

It’s the Chinese not the Japanese who don’t have dairy in their diet. There was a really famous study. This is how we know that dairy intake is linked to breast cancer. Breast cancer is largely absent in China, but within two generations the cancer rate in Chinese women in the west is the same as that of other western women.

WillowBeeT · 26/02/2023 13:10

safeplanet · 26/02/2023 12:30

But house prices will fall because huge chunks of the middle classes never bothered to check if they could afford their mortgages at 12% let along 15%.

When do you think mortgages rates will hit 15%. I cannot see it happening

I think we’ll see other things first to hide the Political machinations from people. Those with a financial interest in the economy will not lose money. They will have to be compensated one way or another.

The Government’s dilemma (any government) is that it has three masters...
The country’s financiers, the international power structure, and the populous.

The bind it is in is that it has to pay their financiers, obey the power structure, and appease the populous. But, we’re nit in this alone. All counties have been following the same path for twenty years or so. We are all in this together. One global community.

So, how do you pay the financiers in a deflationary depression, and keep the populous from revolting?

I think they will keep ringing money and let the economy fail, and they will point to all the other countries doing the same, and say, see, it’s just the way things are. They’ll start wars all over the world and blame in on their enemies, and they’ll take away your access to money and give you credits which they’ll tell you are safer and more convenient for you. They’ll pay you to adopt the currency and they’ll point to other countries and say, see, they’re all doing it too.

20years from now most people will rent their homes from a major stakeholder capitalist. You’ll either have lost your home because you couldn’t afford the mortgage, or you’ll lose your home because you couldn’t afford to bring it up to spec to meet the new climate carbon footprint specifications. But there are plenty of corporations with the money to buy up homes en mass and make them suitable for human occupation.

Each of these suppositions has been written about and published, by the WEF, and the UK Government in one form or another. People are just people in the macro economic sense. They are a resisting force to be acknowledged and addressed. But the world moves on despite them, so they are largely irrelevant. They were writing about this stuff twenty years ago, laying out the steps to be taken, and publishing it for all to see (ignore).

Rest assures, the big reset is coming, you will eat less, you will own nothing and you will be happy. We spend way too much time in our own little insular worlds and too little time watching the world outside our doors and asking questions like, why?

If they don’t take you to war, and they don’t hide this depression with a CBDC, I think we’ll hit 12% in 2026/7 (which would put many mortgages at 15%) and I’m think it’ll last for three tears with a dip in the middle somewhere. I’m probably wrong, but I’m planning for it nonetheless. But once the BoE base rate is above 5% it’s not dropping below that few couple of decades IMHO.

safeplanet · 26/02/2023 13:12

I definitely think the best zero rates of the last decade or so are over but I don't foresee 15% rates in the next few years.

safeplanet · 26/02/2023 13:12

best should say near!

Aphrathestorm · 26/02/2023 14:15

It's almost an impossible economic scenario for inflation to go negative.

If it does there will be much bigger problems than today!

So no the best case scenario is back to the BoE's target of inflation under 2%.

Prices will never decrease but they will stop increasing this quickly.

Eventually wages will all go up and we'll be amazed anyone was ever paid under £10 ph or professionals under £20ph.

Give it a few years and new graduate will expect £40k starting salaries and middle aged professionals will all be on £100k+.

mibbelucieachwell · 26/02/2023 17:00

Although some large corporations unethically buy real estate, pushing up home prices and therefore increasing demand for rental properties, the fact of a large percentage of private properties being owned by older people will result in a lot of middle aged people inheriting expensive properties which will presumably keep these homes in individual ownership.

safeplanet · 26/02/2023 17:05

there a theory that when the boomers die off there will be a glut of supply of larger, family homes which will depress prices but who knows.

safeplanet · 26/02/2023 17:06

or with the state of the nhs & social care having to fund more costs for the ageing population

YaWeeFurryBastard · 26/02/2023 17:13

WillowBeeT · 26/02/2023 12:22

Yep.
Costs are rising across the board, and there isn’t anything to stop them.
But house prices will fall because huge chunks of the middle classes never bothered to check if they could afford their mortgages at 12% let along 15%.
They will all downsize, or be forced to sell to corporate landlords, because they are unlikely to have the incomes the meet the requirements of remortgaging deals.
The good news is cheaper housing and a much larger private rental market dominated by corporate landlords as opposed to private individuals.
great news if you are a buyer with a big deposit.
Bad news if your eyes were bigger than your bellies in the last housing boom, because inflation is gonna wipe out the equity in your overpriced home.
I think the next ten years are a buyers market.

Why do you keep spouting this utter crap about interest rates rising to 15%? Do you have any understanding of the markets whatsoever?

medianewbie · 26/02/2023 17:33

.

picklemewalnuts · 26/02/2023 18:05

Fuel at the pumps has dropped hugely. Down from 180p to 140p.

Energy may well go down again.

Food won't, and probably shouldn't.

We consume far more than our share, in the west, so we need a reset.

OnlyFoolsnMothers · 26/02/2023 18:06

I can’t see prices dropping,
certainly not home fuel- just
more profit for the companies that we’ve got used to paying 4 x last years prices to

Darklane · 26/02/2023 18:07

We paid 15% rate for a time so it’s not impossible

Darklane · 26/02/2023 18:22

In fact in 1990 we were paying 17% interest rate on our mortgage

Darklane · 26/02/2023 18:31

Sorry, dates mixed up it was late seventies when it was 17%, at the house we lived in when our DS was young.

YaWeeFurryBastard · 26/02/2023 18:44

Darklane · 26/02/2023 18:31

Sorry, dates mixed up it was late seventies when it was 17%, at the house we lived in when our DS was young.

Completely different environment, a basic grasp of modern economics will tell you this is incredibly unlikely in the current market.

Retrohaul · 26/02/2023 18:47

For those posters who have started using Sainsbury's more, interestingly I have also found them to be better value than lidl lately. For store cupboard essentials anyway. Who'd have thought it?!

safeplanet · 26/02/2023 19:09

We paid 15% rate for a time so it’s not impossible

with todays house prices?

Moonicorn · 26/02/2023 19:11

Food has been ‘unusually’ cheap and plentiful for a long time now. I think it’s just rebalancing back to what it used to be. Given half the country is obese and we waste a lot of food, I wonder if this could actually be a good thing health wise (I realise how awful that will sound but). No, I don’t think it will go back to how cheap it was for some time.

Believeitornot · 26/02/2023 19:14

IntentionalError · 25/02/2023 19:28

I know that some people are genuinely struggling to feed their families, and that is disgraceful in what’s supposed to be a rich country, but it’s still worth asking a question:
Is it really such a bad thing that the era of ridiculously cheap food (eg £2.99 for a chicken or £1 for 4 pints of milk) is now over?

The problem isn’t cheap food. The problem is poverty.

If we didn’t have such widespread poverty caused by wages being so low, then food prices aren’t such an issue.

Believeitornot · 26/02/2023 19:15

Moonicorn · 26/02/2023 19:11

Food has been ‘unusually’ cheap and plentiful for a long time now. I think it’s just rebalancing back to what it used to be. Given half the country is obese and we waste a lot of food, I wonder if this could actually be a good thing health wise (I realise how awful that will sound but). No, I don’t think it will go back to how cheap it was for some time.

You’re assuming that obesity is caused by spending a lot of money on food. It can be caused by ultra cheap ultra processed food.

Believeitornot · 26/02/2023 19:15

Darklane · 26/02/2023 18:22

In fact in 1990 we were paying 17% interest rate on our mortgage

The house price to wage ratio was nothing like it is today, so that is meaningless.

Retrohaul · 26/02/2023 20:47

Believeitornot · 26/02/2023 19:14

The problem isn’t cheap food. The problem is poverty.

If we didn’t have such widespread poverty caused by wages being so low, then food prices aren’t such an issue.

Thank god, someone with some sense! Great point!

I suppose some of the sneery lot on here would be happy to let the poor "just eat turnips"...

Believeitornot · 26/02/2023 21:12

Retrohaul · 26/02/2023 20:47

Thank god, someone with some sense! Great point!

I suppose some of the sneery lot on here would be happy to let the poor "just eat turnips"...

I heard Jay Rayner of master chef make this point and it really summed it up for me. There’s some sort of bizarre “blaming the consumer” going on where we say consumers want low prices but no one points out the problem with our system of low exploitative wages - which makes people
poor. And it is getting worse.

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