Energy, why can't we just ask Saudi Arabia & the US to open the taps more?

[lll3333]

I appreciate there's transport costs but SA is full of oil, what's stopping them upping their supply?

I don't believe there will be a mass die-off. Just the usual wars and famines in various places around the world. Perhaps some of the famines will be a bit worse that usual.
What will happen is that women will choose not to have children, or only have one - this is already happening around the world. Meanwhile old people and sick people will die as they always have done.

Then it will only be a few decades before we look around and realise there has been a big drop in world population, quite naturally.

It very much depends on how you think of "sustainable". Every year less and less fossil fuel will be burnt. Even centuries from now we will be living on the the excesses and wastes and abandoned wealth of our current civilisation.

For instance there will be huge amounts of metal just lying around, already refined from ores, so our distant descendants wont need to mine - except they will be mining landfills for all sorts of goodies, which will be a doddle compared to the deep mines and strip mines we have today.

A truly 'sustainable' society, that lives only on what it produces for itself each year, is some few hundred years away.

This made me smile - quite the picture you paint!

But I don't actually think there is any waterfall ahead, even with the Seneca Cliff effect. More like we are drifting along, no oars, with some rapids and rocks and rough spots, but mostly long stretches of boring flat floating while we run low on booze and the party fizzles out. We have no way to go back to the beautiful place we left upstream, and the land ahead is where the poor people live.

It is a strange thing, but most people can only imagine one of two outcomes: progress forever and a bright shiny star trek future; or a mad max apocalypse and the destruction of everything.

We will get neither.

The planet won't be destroyed - the planet will be just fine. Life has survived most of the planet being frozen, most of the planet being like a tropical jungle, most of the planet being desert, and everything in between. There have been at least five mass extinctions - during the Permian one 95% of all species died out. 95%! But life just bounced back.

Even the human species is not doomed. We are the ultimate "weed species" - like rats, crows, cockroaches, brambles and nettles: we can survive in any habitat, eat anything, and will carry on where not much else survives.

Of course what I think you mean is that western industrial civilisation will disappear, and along with it our current ways of life. Yes, that will be very hard for very many people to cope with.

The mad max scenario at least sound exciting, like a movie, (each person imagines they will be one of the plucky survivors).

Instead of apocalypse or progress, we will get a long, slow, tough, boring descent into ordinary human poverty. THAT is what people are really, really terrified of.

I agree, a slow descent into poverty is what most people are afraid off. Higher mortality rates, reduced education, a fight for survival. I for one hope we (as a species) think of something to keep a good quality of life for most - though realise it sounds hypocritical to say that when right now many in the world do not have a good quality of life…

This has to be one of my favourite threads in over 18 years on mnet. I'm trying to cling on to the more hopeful posts!

A slow decent into poverty when all of the rhetoric doesn’t work you shd work harder earn more etc so if that happens surely there will be a massive wealth disparity the poor and the rich that’s it 😬🙏

I agree, Theendofnature; great thread.
Just the other day I was talking with DM, expressing my conviction that humanity will be brought down by its utter lack of imagination, our lack of capacity to extrapolate and envisage future trends based on what is known; "They won't let that happen!", "The necessary technology is just a few years away". But perhaps that's not it. Maybe it's a lack of key knowledge at a critical time. Or a disinclination to seek and accept such knowledge despite it being readily available. It's too bleak and scary.
I'm off to try to understand why people buy gold as a means of future proofing personal finances. I've had gold hoarders try to explain it to me but I'm not convinced.

The gold hoarders and crypto speculators are just another part of the problem, not a solution to it. It’s the whole speculative greed mindset again, just translated to a different asset class.

I'm off to try to understand why people buy gold as a means of future proofing personal finances. I've had gold hoarders try to explain it to me but I'm not convinced.

Buying gold as an 'investment' is no better that buying any other shares - risky and not a good idea if you can't afford to lose the money.
People who buy gold are likely trying to take care of their old age when pension funds may fail - it is a response to fear of an uncertain future. In my opinion the best response is building relationships with friends and family who will look out for you just as you look out for them. Community will be the only safety net.

Gold has no practical use outside of a few specialist scientific/ manufacturing functions. It is only worth whatever someone will pay for it. In a declining society where resources are short, are you really going to find a buyer for your stashed gold so that you can meet your electricity bill or buy a month's food?

It has the advantage of being portable if you don't trust the banks for your savings, but it makes you a target for looters and robbers if anyone suspects you have it. All over Britain and Europe there have been found hoards of gold buried by some wealthy Roman, who no doubt intended to return and dig it up when "things have settled down".

Instead of gold, invest any spare money you have in paying off debt and mortgage, then buying practical things that will be directly useful: supplies of long-life food (eat what you store and store what you eat - i.e. rotate your stocks); garden and household tools, know-how books, clothes and shoes, etc. Also invest in learning useful things, e.g. a sewing course or an evening class in one of the household trades such as plumbing or mechanics. Then you can work for cash or barter for friends and family - a useful person is always popular in hard times.

e.g. I heard that the cotton harvests in Egypt and India have failed, so cotton will shoot up in price soon. I have in my drawers and cupboards about decade's supply of cotton underwear and t-shirts, as they will only go up in price. (Although I could always switch to bamboo).

Caveat - I realise many people have no spare cash and no storage for much in the way of supplies. This response is about an alternative to buying gold.

OPEC+ Is Protecting Oil Market Downside.

None of theses bodies that are supposed to be working doing what their supposed to be doing are doing it are they. Jeez what a total mess

@Liebig. Thanks for this.
What I found most interesting is the strange language. He comes from an investment background, firmly rooted in Business-As-Usual. It sounds like he almost 'gets it', but just not quite...

"They are nearly out of spare oil production capacity." That makes it sound like they are short of machines and drills. It may not be just 'production capacity' they are short of, but oil itself.

"A “healthy” oil field should not be run at maximum capacity, as over-production reduces the quantity of total recoverable oil" - Does he not understand that ANY production reduces the quantity of total recoverable oil? Is he an abiotic oil believer??

"OPEC+ is already producing at or near max capacity, which may be declining as their oil fields mature despite new investment" - note the use of the word 'mature', instead of 'peak'. Mature just sounds so much nicer and more respectable.

"Like its OECD counterparts, OPEC+ countries have been underinvesting in oil production capacity for years [...]. Lack of investment in productive capacity was at the core of our original thesis, and in our view, will be the biggest driver of an undersupplied global market."
The reason they have been 'underinvesting' is because they know that there is only a limited amount of oil to be had from current wells, and there is no more profitable oil to be found in the ground. So why invest in buying more drills etc? It would be a waste of money.

Let me translate: an 'undersupplied global market' means that sooner or later (probably sooner) there will be power-cuts or blackouts, and petrol and diesel prices will soar ever higher. Given that everything in the world is transported using oil, the prices of everything will keep going up.

@Beancounter1 More or less my reading too. There are quite a few people who seemingly get to almost the epiphany that will bring about that change in perspective on the whole system… but they fall at the last hurdle.

Incidentally, the analyst is reasonably accurate on that first point about overproduction. Maxing output as I see KSA and UAE are doing, can damage reservoirs and lead to trapped oil that can’t be produced. You get a temp gain in output at the loss of total output over lifetime, basically.

And yea, “mature” sounds better than “over the hill and declining” as Ghawar and Khurais are.

Beancounter, thank you.
I think I don't get the attraction with hoarding gold because my vision of the future and theirs do not align, as you illustrate, but I have sort of assumed that anyone concerned about the future to the point of making somewhat unorthodox adjustments such as hoarding gold, probably have a similarly apocalyptic view to mine, but on reflection, most likely not.

I didn't know that about over-production reducing eventual output. Your knowledge of such details is impressive - thanks for contributing.

No problem. Also, you can't just stop pumping too, as they did in 2020 with negative prices causing fields to be shutdown. That can also lead to reservoir problems which can even permanently hit output levels and total recoverable values.

Russia after the USSR collapsed had a load of oil taken offstream. It has taken 30 years to get anywhere near their output levels in 1989, and even then, still fell short.

Oil, oil, oil, the black goo that will be the end of us all

@Beancounter1 your preparation strategies are sensible. As you say, some things will always have value: community, family connections, carpentry, sewing and mending skills. Dh and I grow a lot of food so we know how much time and effort and land it would take to be even half self sufficient. We are better prepared than some for what’s coming but we are still absolutely dependent on family and society. I am sad that industries such as art and music and theatre will suffer first as they did during covid. And that so many people will be cold and hungry this winter. And that we will have the worst possible government to lead us through it!