Energy, why can't we just ask Saudi Arabia & the US to open the taps more?

[lll3333]

I appreciate there's transport costs but SA is full of oil, what's stopping them upping their supply?

we just cannot fathom an economy that doesn’t grow, to say nothing of contract

This is the core issue. The fact that we expect money to earn interest is based on an economy growing. The fact that we expect shares to earn dividends, and pensions to pay out in the future, is all based on the world economy growing.

Can you imagine a world where instead of money earning you interest, you have to pay interest to the bank for them to 'store' your money?
Can you imagine a world with no private pensions, no pensions based on 'investments'? The only pensions will come from government taxing the current workforce.
That is the world we are heading into over the next few decades.

On the bright side, the boomer generation will pass away in the next couple of decades, and Generation X which follows is smaller. Gen X will be supported by the Millennial generation (Gen Y) which is larger, so there will be a slightly bigger working tax base compared to pensioners.

The rare minerals aren't that rare. Just in the "wrong" place.

But you still have to shift tons and tons of earth and rock to get to them, and crush up or process the rocks, all of which is done using fossil-fuel powered machinery.

It would be lovely to think that nuclear power could be built quickly and without taxpayer subsidy, but I am not optimistic.

In what way is the issue of nuclear waste "solved"?

Sri Lanka tried the organic farming route and, well, let’s just say it didn’t go so well. It really needs to be implemented perfectly to not drastically reduce yields in many areas.

Sri Lanka is a great example of how NOT to implement the switch. i.e. all at once by government decree with no learning curve, no preparation, and no real understanding.

Organic is better if it means less toxic chemicals being sprayed into the environment, but from an energy point of view the label 'organic' is a red-herring. The real issues are firstly the fact that chemical fertiliser is made from gas and secondly that computers and fossil-fuel powered machinery have replaced manpower.

The yield from manure-fertilised closely-cropped land is higher per acre than extensive fields planted to suit the machinery, but to get the high yield with less land you need manpower: people hand-weeding and hand-picking. Our society is not in a place to accept that yet, and paying people is still too expensive compared to buying fuel and machines and chemicals.

You definitely can make a HUGE difference to your own life and that of your children and grandchildren. (But yes it won't make a difference to the decline of western civilisation.)

Stay out of debt - this is vital. If your can't pay for it, do without.

Reduce your mortgage by downsizing.
Whether you have a mortgage or rent, consider moving to where housing costs are cheaper and find a job in that area, instead of finding the job you want then paying a higher cost to stay near the job. Whatever you do, cut out the long commute.
If you have a second earner and two cars, switch one of the jobs to within walking distance of home, or on a bus route, and get rid of the second car.

Grow food, especially expensive stuff like salad leaves, tomatoes, etc.

Consider very, VERY carefully if it is worth your teenager going to university. Seriously, universities are a racket designed to keep middle managers and administrators employed, and the whole system will implode in coming decades.

Don't let your children have false expectations of their future - especially beware the narrative that secondary schools feed them, 'if you do well in your GCSE's you will get a good job'.

Hope this gives you some ideas.

This thread makes me anxious.

What can individuals do about it? Do we need to find a way somehow to prioritise self generation of electricity?

It's always been my dream anyway.

The flower turbines look promising for where I live.

I just don't know how to make it work though!

High grade radioactive waste can be reprocessed or burned in various forms of reactor. CANDU models are great at this. The majority of the waste produced is low grade alpha and beta emitters that can be stored in containment units without any fear of leakage. It’s not, as some think, a load
of poo barrels with glowing green goo oozing out in a cave somewhere. These nuclides are less hazardous and easier to contain, unlike recently spent fuel rods.

Generally, monoculture and over reliance on mechanisation has meant we have a few really
weak points of failure, as you say. Sri Lanka had a crash course as their currency failed to buy dollars, something sterling is probably falling into now. Thinking it was seen as some Great Leap Forward (pun intentional), the gov’t miscalculated. Badly.

Problem: how does one replace pesticides and fertiliser and tractor usage when most of the population no longer toils the fields?

Solution: get people working the land again for constant, productive employment.

A very informative thread.
Watching with interest.

It may be possible to put solar panels on your roof, if you have the cash up front, but there are a few things to be really wary of:

Their lifespan may be only a couple of decades or so - they are not going to give you electricity for lifetimes or generations.

Don't get into debt - think really hard about this if you don't have the cash up front, and do all the sums in great detail very carefully.

Beware of schemes that are tied into the national grid - which is most solar panel instalments in this country. There are complex financial arrangements whereby the government pays you a 'tariff' which may change. Instead consider a stand-alone off-grid installation - more complicated to install but you have more control. It is possible that in a few decades time the national grid will not be viable to maintain and we will have a patchwork of regional and city-wide grids, or if your house is remote you may lose electricity permanently.

Not all roofs are suitable, e.g. if there is a chimney in the way or they don't face south or south-west.

You have to keep the panels clean and clear for best output, it is hard to wash off the dust or frost if they are on your roof.

A better alternative is to look into solar hot water systems - they don't generate electricity but instead use the sun to directly heat your water so you are not using fossil fuels to heat water.

If you have a big enough garden and are not going to be moving house for decades / generations, plant a couple of trees for the firewood in 10-20-30 year's time.

But the best option of all is just to reduce consumption of electricity and gas.

The bullwhip effect continues. VW is hoarding glass as are other companies as a looming glass shortage approaches.

I don’t pretend to understand a lot of what’s said on this thread but thank you to ops for such informative input.

Like a previous poster, I find this all terrifying and feel anxious for my dc and their futures :(. What can/should we be doing on a day to day basis?

we just cannot fathom an economy that doesn’t grow, to say nothing of contract

Speak for yourself. I can. As I said upthread - all empires fall. Now ask yourself why ?

Entropy. The maximum power principle applies to all structures that utilise energy and optimise for a goal. Civilisations, like biological organisms, are dissipative systems and this works only so long as there is enough surplus energy to allow the system to remain stable and grow. At the very least, it needs enough to sustain the status quo.

Remove that by overextending your supply lines, cutting off resources or concentrating them in unproductive ventures, and you eventually get collapse. The Mayans got wiped out by agriculture irrigation failure due to climate change. The Romans by expanding too far and fighting too many costly wars and running corrupt gov't. The Easter Islanders denuded their entire land of anything valuable.

Pretty much it.

If only we'd known that a few years ago. If only someone had studied that instead of PPE. If only PPE covered that instead of "how to get rich quick".

We're not quite there yet, but imagine a world where you're better off keeping the lights off rather than advertising you can afford the energy. Which would be the world some key workers - like my DM - lived in during the power cuts in the 70s when their offices stayed open as everyone else was sent home. Funny that aspect of taking back control got left off the bus. Still I guess some remember.

(Googles "blackout blinds" ...)

@SerendipityJane I'll do you one better. The writing was on the wall far further back. If Malthus leaves a bad taste in the mouth (as many already know about him and his views), there are always the two books I use as a core reading of the subject.

Interesting thread

One problem with Malthus - like Galileo and gravity - was the theory was right, but he lacked the maths to lay it out.

The other problem was it didn't suit the people in charge to hear it.

Plus ca change, eh ?

My DM had a book on the shelf by an Italian writer (I think she bought it because it was recommended by Asimov) - "The Coming Dark Age", which (from memory) started with the oil running out. Given it was the early 70s it was quite prescient.

We need to bear in mind the price of progress is ever more linked systems. As the pandemic warned us (and we ignored). There ain't ever gonna be a factory knocking out the high tech chips the modern world needs if the entire infrastructure behind it crumbles.

Day to day - do what almost everyone else is doing now, i.e. cutting back, cutting out non-essentials, saving the pennies where you can. Just live like you are poor (even if you are not - save the extra cash).
DON'T get into debt. If you haven't got the money, you don't buy it.

Longer term - try to manage the expectations that your children have. Don't let them assume that they will go to uni, get a good job and buy a house. For most people that won't happen.
Keep remembering that your children can still have fulfilling, worthwhile and meaningful lives despite not being as wealthy as their grandparents' generation.

@Beancounter1 it sounds so unbearably miserable where is the joy ? If that is the case our children won’t have good jobs buy a house etc what will their future look like ? People still have to live it maybe it is a way of shedding people

I was at a dog show in Chelsea yesterday it was absolutely packed. People were out and about eating shopping friends of mine who have cafes are busier than ever

Joy is not found in houses and possessions. Joy is found in people and relationships. We will always have those.
As the changes will take decades to play out, we have time to adapt and adjust, a bit at a time year-by-year, as long as we don't have false hopes for what standard of living we can expect.

@Beancounter1 yes I agree but security of home an enjoyable job affordability to take holidays live where you want are important too and make up choice. Thank god I’m on my way out this new world sounds fucking awful my poor son 😢

The world was this way before fossil fuels came to be extensively used. It's simply reverting back to the mean.

We have done and they won’t